New Listing Watch -- as low as it can go -- or it's up from here

As expected the number of new listings in the last two weeks is at a low point for the year.  There were only 46 new listings (24 single family homes and 22 condos).  During the same two week period a year ago there were 32 new listings (14 single family homes and 18 condos).

As the chart above shows, this is an annual pattern and, if it holds, the next two weeks should see a major jump in new listings (which will include listings previously pulled off the market in advance of the holidays and then relisted in order to reset the number of days on market in the MLS).

What seems a bit unusual this year is the number of buyers still actively in the market.  As shown in the following chart the percentage of new listings that went into contract.

Compared to last year at this time the percentage of single family homes that went into contract is up substantially -- 79% compared to 57% a year ago.  For condos 41% went into contract compared to 50% for the same period last year.

Finally, the number of price reductions in the last two weeks is negligible with only 4 single family homes and 1 condo posting price reductions.  That is essentially the same as last year.

The full report can be found on our web site:

New Listing Watch - post Thanksgiving

This graph tells all.

The number of new listings fell to it's lowest level of the year with a total of only 95 properties, 43 single family homes and 52 condos.  During the same two week period last year the total number of new listings was 147.  The difference is partly explained by the lateness of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend this year.  Last year it was almost two weeks earlier.

The total number of new listings since the beginning of the year so far is 6,921.  For the same period last year the total was 7,050.

The number of price reductions also fell in the last two weeks:  8 single family homes saw new price reductions along with 32 condos.  That's more than a 50% reduction from the prior period.  Compared to a year ago condos were virtually unchanged (32 vs 33) but there were fewer single family home price reductions (8 vs 18).

The number of new listings going into contract fell to 8 for single family homes compared to 18 in the prior period and compared to 8 a year ago.  6 condos went into contract compared to 13 in the prior period and only 2 a year ago.

New Listing Watch - sliding into the holiday season

Already we're being bombarded with reminders that the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday season is fast approaching.  You can also see that in our bi-weekly report.

This is a graph we don't show too often but it demonstrates the consistency of the San Francisco real estate market annual cycles.  This shows five years of data and.  Current year is solid dark red (single family homes) and solid green (condos).  Six weeks ago we saw the peak of new listings right after the Labor Day holiday and as has been the case every year the number of new listings declines and will continue to decline until after New Year.

In the last two weeks the total number of new listings fell to 290 compared to 351 in the prior period.  A year ago the number was virtually identical (289).  The decline was most notable in single family homes which dropped 26% compared to the previous period (114 vs 154).  Condos fell 11% (176 vs 197).

In both categories the number of new listings that went into contract in the last two weeks increased.  Single family homes went from 15.8% compared to 14.3% in the prior period and compared to 10.5% a year ago.  Condos increased to 13.1% compared to 11.2% in the prior period and compared to 10.9% a year ago.

The number of price reductions fell compared to the prior period.  There were 23 single family homes price reductions compared to 41 in the prior period and compared to 33 a year ago.  There were 70 condo price reductions compared to 95 in the prior period and compared to 58 a year ago.

The full report can be found at our web site:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics

New Listing Market Watch - price reductions up

New listings during the past two weeks declined compared to the prior period (351 vs 403) but all of that decline was in the condo sector (197 vs 264).  The number of single family homes new listings increased (154 vs 139).  We expect to see new listings decline steadily between now and the new year -- it happens every year.

The number of price reductions is up compared to the prior two week period -- 41 single family home price reductions vs 31 two weeks ago; 95 condo price reductions vs 73 two weeks ago. Compared to a year ago condo price reductions are up (95 vs 80) and single family home price reductions are down (41 vs 49). 

The percentage of new listings that went into contract during the past two weeks ticked up compared to the prior period -- 14.3% vs 12.9% for single family homes and 11.2% vs 11.0% for condos.  This is significantly higher than a year ago -- 14.3% vs 9.8% for single family homes and 11.2% vs 6.2% for condos.

After the usual initial increase of new inventory following Labor Day, the number of new listings usually begins to fall off through the remainder of the year.  2019 is following that same trend.  Month over month new inventory has fallen by over 21% which is a bigger decline compared to last year which was only 3%. Combined single family homes and condos inventory is down 6%.

At the Beginning the 4th quarter

The San Francisco real estate market remains strong, especially averages selling prices.

Average selling prices for the five configurations of homes we track (which make up approx 60% of all home sales) continue to be at historic highs with only one exception:

*includes condos, co-ops and TICs

Year over year, the total number of sales fell by 6%; single family homes were down by 3% and condos were down by 7%.

As typical after Labor Day, inventory increased month over month by over 5% while single family homes were down by 10% but condos were up 15%.  The largest inventory increase in our record keeping was back in 2010 when a total of 1,229 single family homes and condos were added to the market.  This year that inventory increase was 665.  During the intervening years the increases were in the 400s to 500s range.