New Listing Market Watch - record number of new listings (condos) and price reductions (condos)

The headline is the story.  In the last two weeks there were 333 new listings of condos, a record for the seven years we've been keeping track.  (As a reminder, these are almost entirely resale properties as reported on the MLS.  New construction condos being sold by the developer are not included except for a handful that some developers put on the MLS essentially as advertising.  Also not included would be any off-market sales.)

In each of the last four 2-week periods (covering two months) we have had 300 or more new condo listings except for one period when there were "only" 277. 

The latest two week period of 333 compares to 310 the prior period and compares to 128 a year ago.

We had 187 new listings of single family homes compared to 160 the prior period and compared to 108 a year ago. 

So it won't come as much of a surprise that we also had 101 price reductions on condos during the past two weeks compared to 84 in the prior period and compared to 84 and 64 in the prior two periods.  A year ago we had 32.

There was also an increase in the number of price reductions of single family homes:  43 compared to 33 in the prior period and compared to 20 a year ago.

The number of properties that went into contract in the last two weeks held steady for both single family homes and condos.  29 single family homes went into contract compared to 32 in the prior period and compared to 20 a year ago.  36 condos compared to 36 in the prior period and compared to 32 a year ago. 

Expressed as a percentage, here's a graph showing number of properties going into contract as a percentage of the number of new listings.

And finally, just to drive the point home, here is a graph showing new listings in two week increments over the past five years.  It's a little busy but it's easy to see how out of the normal range condo listings have been recently.

Update: Are renters having trouble with their rent payments?

In the last two months not much has changed in terms of the percentage of renters who pay their rent on time.  These graphs add the two latest months reporting (May and June) to the three months reported earlier.

The first graph shows data through the first week of June:

This graph shows full month data through the end of May:

Information is provided by the National Multifamily Housing Council whose membership is comprised of owners of large properties.

"These are trying times for the country, and we are reminded on a regular basis how crucial safe and secure housing is during a period of uncertainty and upheaval, so we are glad to see that residents who live in professionally managed properties continue to pay their rent,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President. “While our Rent Payment Tracker metric continues to show the resilience and strength of the professionally managed apartment industry, it does not necessarily tell the whole story, as it doesn’t capture rent payments for smaller landlords or for affordable and subsidized properties, and according to Harvard, more than half of renters with at-risk wages due to the pandemic live in single-family and small multifamily rentals with 2–4 units."

Here's the link to their full report.

New Listing market watch-- condos surge, price reductions increase

The number of new listings to come on the market in the last two weeks continues to increase compared to prior periods and compared to the same time period last year.

Here's another look comparing new listings this year compared to prior years.  It's apparent that the number of new listings of condos is (and has been for the past few weeks) substantially higher than any of the past 5 years.  New listings of single family homes has been mostly in the same range as prior years.

For the past six weeks (three two-week periods) new listings have significantly surpassed the same periods a year ago.  The majority of these new listings have been in the condo market.

There were 160 new listings of single family homes in the last two weeks compared to 156 in the prior period and compared to 127 during the same period a year ago.  There were 310 new listings of condos compared to 277 in the  prior period and compared to 196 a year ago.

Overall, total new listings (single family and condos) were up 46% compared to a year ago.

At the same time, price reductions are up.

The number of new listings in contract has remained steady.  During the past two weeks 32 single family homes went into contract compared to 31 in the prior period and compared to 21 a year ago.  For condos, 36 went into contract compared to 32 in the prior period and compared to 34 a year ago.

Condo buyers market:

The San Francisco real estate market is back and initial indicators are signaling a new cycle is upon us, particularly in the condo/tic segment. Inventory has surged back in numbers that buyers will embrace — condo sellers not so much. 

In the last two years condo inventory has usually been 4-6 weeks of inventory. On June 1 1/1, 2/1, and 2/2 condo configurations have 23, 14, and 26 weeks of inventory respectively. All condo inventory is up to 24 weeks.

Single family homes have seen a more modest increases in inventory. Total inventory has risen to 10 weeks but 2/1 and 3/2 configurations have only 3 weeks and 6 weeks of inventory respectively.

TBD — are we in a buyers market for condos?

Sales Down (a lot)

It will come as a surprise to no one that residential sales in San Francisco are down.  But the size of the decline is unprecedented.

Sales during the first five months of the year are only 63% compared to the same period last year (1295 vs 2040).

That's only slightly better than the first five months of 2008 in the depths of the great recession (1295 vs 1265).

New Listing Market Watch - new listings ease, price reductions surge

New listings of single family homes during the past two weeks were down compared to the prior two week period (156 vs 184) but up compared to a year ago 156 vs 123). 

A similar story with new listings of condos which were down compared to the prior period (277 vs 300) but up substantially compared to a year ago (277 vs 167).

Almost 20% of new single family home listings went into contract during the past two weeks compared to 13% during the prior period and compared to 15% a year ago.  For condos, 12% went into contract compared to 8% during the prior period and compared to 19% a year ago.

There was a jump in price reductions during the past two weeks.  30 single family homes posted price reductions compared to 22 during the prior period and compared to only 6 a year ago.  Condos posted 64 price reductions compared to 35 in the prior period and compared to just 6 a year ago.