Thursday, March 29, 2018

Chinese investment in commercial real estate down

Article on BISNOW.  I wonder if this will translate into less Chinese investment in residential real estate in the U.S.?

Click on the link above for the full article.

Friday, March 23, 2018

What the heck is going on in Daly City?

In the last two weeks six single family homes have closed escrow. Listing prices for six of these homes ranged from $879,000 to $998,888 with an average listing price of $943,000. 

On average, these six homes sold for 21% over asking and with an average of only 17 days on the market.  The premiums ranged from a high of 40% (there were two homes that achieved that premium) to a low of  "only" 11%.

By way of comparison, the single family homes that closed escrow in San Francisco during the same two week period had an average premium of  "only" 15%. 

There was a seventh Daly City home that closed escrow in the same time period.  It listed for $1,100,000, spent 64 days on the market and eventually sold for its asking price.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

New Listing Report -- I spoke too soon

New listings during the last two weeks (252) are down compared to the same two week period a year ago (291) so my "whoohoo" in the last post may have been premature.

As evident on the graph above new listings are following the same basic trajectory we see every year at this time but the total numbers of new listings are lower than we've seen in the last few years.

We take a snapshot of active listings at the end of the first week each month for the five categories of single family homes and condos we track.  At the beginning of March we had the lowest number of active listings in the last eight years (except for 2015).

So the inventory situation isn't good for buyers and will help sustain the ongoing seller's market.  In the broader market of all active listings of single family homes, condos, and 2-4 unit buildings the lack of available inventory is even more pronounced.

The column on the right shows the percentage change of number of active listings compared to a year ago in the three groups of residential properties.  The two columns on the left show the month to month change this year and last year.  The month to month increases are typical for this time of year going into the spring market.  The year over year percentage drop for single family homes and condos is cause for concern.

We've also tracked an unusual drop in the number of new listings that went into contract within the same two week period.

None of the 104 new listings of single family homes went into contract in the last two weeks and only eight of the 148 new listings of condos went into contract.  Since the beginning of the year we have usually seen 10-15% of new listings go into contract within the same two week period.

And finally, the number of price reductions has remained the same as the prior two week period (27 vs 28) but is well below the 38 price reductions we saw a year ago.