Monday, July 16, 2018

New Listing Market Watch - post Fourth of July

Overall, the number of new listings in the last two weeks was 6% more than the same period last year (257 vs 243).  That's a typical increase/rebound following the Fourth of July holiday.  But look a little closer and you see new listings of single family homes was up 27% compared to the same period last year (and, coincidently, compared to the prior two week period) 116 vs 91.

New listings of condos was down 7% compared to the same period last year (141 vs 152) and virtually the same compared to the prior two week period (141 vs 138).


The number of those new listings that went into contract in the same two week period were about the same as last year for single family homes (11 vs 7) and the prior two week period (11 vs 12).  It's a different story for condos:  more than twice as many new listings went into contract compared to a year ago (15 vs 6)  but less than half compared to the prior period (15 vs 38).



The number of price reductions for single family homes remained at the same level compared to the same period a year ago and the prior period (15 vs 16, and 15 vs 14).  However, the number of price reductions for condos was down significantly compared to a year ago (23 vs 41) and also down compared to the prior period (23 vs 30).



Saturday, July 7, 2018

The Missing Piece in Electronic Signing for Real Estate Transactions

Below is a link to a blog post by a company (new to me) called "Notarize".  They have created a system to facilitate on-line signing and notarizing of documents -- "notarizing" being the operative word.

Although we've been able to do listing and selling of real estate with electronically signed documents for some time, the missing piece has been the final closing documents, including loan documents, that traditionally are signed in person at the escrow/title office.

It's not clear whether electronic signing of loan documents is or will be acceptable to lenders and/or county recorders.

But it seems inevitable that's the direction we're headed.





Friday, July 6, 2018

New Listing Market Watch -- Summer downturn has begun

As anticipated, new listings dropped during the past two weeks. New single family home listings were 91 compared to 154 in the previous two week period.  Similarly, new condo listings dropped to 138 compared to 207 in the prior period.

However, compared to a year ago new listings are higher for both single family homes (91 vs 62) and condos (138 vs 96).


As might be expected, the percentage of new listings that went into contract during the same two week period went up slightly to 13% vs 12% during the prior two week period.  For condos the increase was more sizable:  28% vs 15%.


The number of price reductions has remained basically unchanged at 14 for single family homes compared to both the prior period and a year ago.  Similarly for condos the number of price reductions was 30 compared to 37 during the prior period and 31 a year ago.

The full report can be seen at our web site:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics

And, our little hibiscus plant in the front window has been blooming it's head off.




Monday, June 18, 2018

New Listing Report -- more this June than last year

The number of new listings during the past two weeks jumped 20% compared to the prior two week period and compared to the same period last year (361 vs 301 in the prior period and vs 303 in the same period last year.


The increase compared to the prior period was mostly in single family homes (154 vs 114, 35%).  In condos the increase was smaller (207 vs 187, 11%).

Compared to the prior period the number of new listings going into contract during the past two weeks was down slightly for both single family homes (12% vs 15%) and condos (14.5% vs 15%).  Compared to the same period a year ago the percentage that went into contract were up significantly (11.7% vs 2.3% of single family homes and 14.5% vs 5.9% of condos).



The number of price decreases during the last two weeks is virtually the same as the prior period for single family homes (15 vs 14) but up for condos (37 vs 27). 



The entire report can be seen at our web site: www.boldsf.com/Statistics

Monday, June 4, 2018

New Listing Report - fewer new listings and fewer price reductions

For the two weeks ending 6/5/18 the total number of new listings was less than the previous two weeks (301 vs 355) but slightly more than the same time last year (301 vs 287).  This is fairly typical for this time of year.



The drop in new listings compared to the previous period was in both single family homes (114 vs 145) and condos (187 vs 210). 

The percentage of new listings that went into contract within the same two week period dropped by almost 2% for single family homes but increased slightly for condos compared to the previous period.  But those percentages were higher than a year ago.



The number of price reductions is also down for both single family homes and condos compared to the prior period and compared to a year ago.


The full report can be found at our website:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics


Friday, May 25, 2018

Is it a better financial decision to rent or buy?

Zillow has published a study based on first quarter 2018 data that estimates how many years of home ownership would be required before it becomes less expensive to own than to rent.  Here's a quick breakdown of the Bay area counties:





Here's a sample of their data:


The entire article can be found at:
https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-learning/trends/breakeven-horizon/

There are all sorts of assumptions made when doing these calculations so use with caution.  Nevertheless, if a buyer can actually purchase a home in the Bay area and if they plan on holding it for 3-4 years minimum, it's likely they will come out ahead compared to renting a similar property, according to this study.

It's worth noting that the main part of the article compares the 25 largest "metro areas".  This phrase usual means "metropolitan statistical areas" as determined by the federal government.  For some reason the San Francisco/Oakland/Fremont MSA is not included and nor is Phoenix.  But a city like Portland is included even though the city of Portland its MSA are both smaller than San Francisco.  However, if you use the interactive map on the Zillow link above it provides data by county.



Tuesday, May 22, 2018

New Listings -- Following the Usual Seasonal Trends

The number of new listings in the past two weeks is only 2% higher than during the same period last year (355 vs 347) and most of the increase was in condos (210 vs 203) compared to single family homes (145 vs 144).


The percentage of those new listings that went into contract during the same two week period was very close to what it was during the prior period (16.6% vs 15.2% for single family homes and 14.3% vs 14.9% for condos).  Compared to a year ago a higher percentage of single family homes went into contract during the past two weeks compared to a year ago (16.6% vs 11.8%) but, for condos, there was no appreciable difference (14.3% vs 14.8%).


The number of price reductions compared to the prior two week period is about the same for single family homes (19 vs 18) but higher for condos (34 vs 23).  Compared to a year ago the numbers are approximately the same (19 vs 16 for single family homes and 34 vs 39 for condos).

The full report can be found at our website:
http://www.boldsf.com/Statistics%20test/Statistics.html

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Millenium (leaning) Tower

Here's an example of what can happen to values when your building becomes notorious:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/matier-ross/article/Pricey-retrofit-proposed-for-sinking-Millennium-12833795.php

Unit 304 (two bedroom, two bath, approx. 1,200 sq. ft.) last sold in in 2012 for $1,235,000.  Last fall (2017) the owners listed the unit for sale with an asking price of $1,959,000.  It was withdrawn without a sale after 75 days on the market.

The property was listed again this January (2018) for $1,435,000.  After 43 days it went into contract but that transaction failed 7 weeks later.  The unit is now back on the market at a reduced price of $1,300,000.

16 units in the building have come on the market since the first of the year.  3 have sold.  3 listings have been withdrawn or expired without a sale.

A contributing factor to the falling values is that financing is very limited.  Many lenders simply won't make a mortgage for units in the building.  A few lenders may be willing to write a mortgage but will probably require a very large (think 50%) downpayment.




Highlights from our monthly reports


  • Single family homes currently comprise 28.8% of residential sales in San Francisco and condos/TICs make up 71.2%.
  • Through April 30th 71.3% of all residential sales closed escrow at or above $1,000,000.
  • Luxury homes ($2.5 million and above) made up 10.6% of all residential sales.
  • Homes closing below $500k made up 1.8% of residential sales.
  • The largest number of closed sales (29.5%) were in the $1 million - $1.49 million price range.  The next largest group (21.9%) was in the $1.5 million - $1.99 price range.


Tuesday, May 8, 2018

New Listing Report

New listings during the past two weeks are up slightly from the prior period (326 vs 318).  All of that increase is in single family homes (138 vs 129).  New condo listings remained essentially unchanged (188 vs 189).

Compared to the same two week period a year ago there was a somewhat larger increase (326 vs 299) but again the difference is mostly in single family homes (138 vs 118).  Condos were up slightly (188 vs 181).




The percentage of those new listings going into contract in the same two week period remained mostly steady compared to the prior period.at about 15%. However, that is much higher than the same period a year ago where only 3% went into contract in the same two week period.


Finally, price reductions were up slightly for single family homes compared to the prior two week period (18 vs 13) but down slightly for condos (23 vs 29).  Compared to the same period a year ago the number of price reductions is down both for single family homes (18 vs 21) and condos (23 vs 36).


Monday, May 7, 2018

Perspective on Interest Rate Increases


Although the median price used in this example is too low for much of the Bay area real estate market, it still makes the point that even a full point increase on interest rates from 4% to 5% only increases the monthly mortgage payment by $262.

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

New Listing Report - higher than last year

New listings in the last two weeks were up modestly (6%) compared to the prior two week period.  Compared to a year ago they were up 17%.   Most of the increase (in both cases) was in condos -- 189 in the last two weeks vs 170 for the prior period and 142 a year ago.


The percentage of new listings that went into contract in the past two weeks was virtually the same for single family homes compared to the prior two week period (18% vs 19%) and up significantly compared to a year ago (18% vs 5%).  

16% of newly listed condos went into contract within the same two week period compared to 22% in the prior period and 15% a year ago.


The number of price reductions for single family homes held steady compared to the prior two week period at 13 but condos jumped up from 12 to 29.  Compared to a year ago the number of single family home price reductions decreased by almost 25% from 17 to 13. 

The number of condo price reductions jumped up to 29 compared to the previous period when there were only 12.  Compared to a year ago condo price reductions were about the same (29 vs 27).


Monday, April 16, 2018

The Truth about Lead-Based Paint Liability


San Francisco Real Estate 1st Quarter = Sizzling Hot

First quarter results continue a trend that has been going on for three years where the total number of sales exceed the total of the previous year. Residential property selling prices including single family homes and condos are at historic highs and climbing. Inventory remains low and demand very high with almost no likelihood of increasing inventory to meet that demand. Below are the 1st quarter results from our monthly reports:


# of bed/baths
# of closed sales
Average selling price (thousands)
Days on market
Selling price as % of listing price
Single family homes
2/1
70
$1,190
21
123%

3/2
66
$1,626
22
115%
Condos
1/1
148
$846
40
103%

2/1
53
$1,103
25
113%

2/2
169
$1,429
38
103%


We also track the general movement of prices for all residential properties (single family homes and condos).  1st quarter results:


Price Range (thousands)
# of sales
% of total

$ 0 - 499
23
2%
30.0% below
$ 1,000,000
$ 500 - 799
118
12%
$ 800 - 999
169
17%
$ 1,000 - 1,499
294
29%
70% above
$1,000,000
$ 1,500 – 1,999
210
20%
$ 2,000 – 2,499
94
9%
$ 2,500 - +
109
11%
Total
1,017




For comparison, during the 1st quarter of 2017 there were 949 sales, 36% of which were under one million dollars.

Almost all studies track sales which are “lagging indicators”, usually 30-40 days behind the actual buy decision.  A few years ago, we began tracking new “hot sheet” listings every two weeks.  This gives us not only the number of new listings in two-week increments, but also how many of those new listings go into contract within the same two-week period.  We also measure price decreases (and increases).  Taken together these give us a picture of what’s happening in the market as a leading indicator and much closer to the present.  Our reports can be found at www.boldsf.com/Statistics

Land locked on three sides, the government of the city and county of San Francisco has firm control over new development and there appears little hope for single family home growth.  Virtually all new development in the city is high rise construction.  Currently 38% of the residential re-sale market is single family homes and 62% is condo/TIC.  Homes priced below $500k are almost non-existent except for those built as part of “below market rate” programs administered through the major’s office and deed restricted as to resale price and available only to those who meet income standards and are first time buyers.

In 2014, just four short years ago, the percentage of sales below $1million was over 50%.  Today it’s only 30% -- a rather remarkable movement and why even some real estate agents are experiencing “sticker shock”.

70% of single family home and condo sales closed at $1M or more.  11% closed at or above $2.5M.  The price range with the largest number of sales is the $1M - $1.5M range which is 29% of sales.  And the below $500k segment of the market was about 2%. 

All of which suggests that this San Francisco market will remain “sizzling hot” as we approach summer with less that four weeks of available inventory for single family homes, less than five weeks for condos, and less that six weeks for small investment properties (2-4 unit buildings).



Thursday, April 12, 2018

Inventory -- still low -- still a seller's market

The number of active listings* at the end of the first week in April this year is lower than at the same time in 2017 or 2016. 

(*We track five configurations of single family homes and condos/TICs.)


For the two single family home configurations we track, the available inventory is about equal to the number of properties sold each month which indicates a strong seller's market.  No surprise to anyone who has been trying to buy a house.  A client of ours recently made an offer on a nice, modest home in the Oceanside neighborhood and found himself in competition with twelve other offers.

For the condos we track, inventory isn't quite as constrained.  There were 100 active 1 bedroom condo listings and there are approximately 54 sell each month.  Still a seller's market, just not as strong.  For 2 bedroom, 2 bath condos there were 113 active compared to average monthly sales of approx. 60.  For 2 bedroom, 1 bath condos market is similar to the single family home situation with 24 available which is the same as the average monthly sales.


Monday, April 9, 2018

New Listing Report - new inventory steady and more competition

New listings in the last two weeks were down somewhat compared to the prior period (299 vs. 334) but about the same as a year ago (299 vs 303).  New single family home listings were about the same as the previous period and a year ago.  But new condo listings were down compared to the previous period (170 vs 205) although about the same as a year ago (170 vs 175).


There was a pronounced uptick in the percentage of new listings (both condos and single family homes) going into contract within the same two week period -- 19% of single family homes and 22% of condos -- one of the highest levels we've seen outside of the Christmas/New Years holiday periods.


The number of price reductions of single family homes remained about the same as the previous period (12 vs 13) and a year ago (12 vs 15) but there were noticably fewer condo price reductions compared to the prior period (12 vs 24) and a year ago (12 vs 20).



Thursday, March 29, 2018

Chinese investment in commercial real estate down

Article on BISNOW.  I wonder if this will translate into less Chinese investment in residential real estate in the U.S.?


Click on the link above for the full article.

Friday, March 23, 2018

What the heck is going on in Daly City?

In the last two weeks six single family homes have closed escrow. Listing prices for six of these homes ranged from $879,000 to $998,888 with an average listing price of $943,000. 

On average, these six homes sold for 21% over asking and with an average of only 17 days on the market.  The premiums ranged from a high of 40% (there were two homes that achieved that premium) to a low of  "only" 11%.



By way of comparison, the single family homes that closed escrow in San Francisco during the same two week period had an average premium of  "only" 15%. 

There was a seventh Daly City home that closed escrow in the same time period.  It listed for $1,100,000, spent 64 days on the market and eventually sold for its asking price.






Tuesday, March 13, 2018

New Listing Report -- I spoke too soon

New listings during the last two weeks (252) are down compared to the same two week period a year ago (291) so my "whoohoo" in the last post may have been premature.


As evident on the graph above new listings are following the same basic trajectory we see every year at this time but the total numbers of new listings are lower than we've seen in the last few years.

We take a snapshot of active listings at the end of the first week each month for the five categories of single family homes and condos we track.  At the beginning of March we had the lowest number of active listings in the last eight years (except for 2015).


So the inventory situation isn't good for buyers and will help sustain the ongoing seller's market.  In the broader market of all active listings of single family homes, condos, and 2-4 unit buildings the lack of available inventory is even more pronounced.


The column on the right shows the percentage change of number of active listings compared to a year ago in the three groups of residential properties.  The two columns on the left show the month to month change this year and last year.  The month to month increases are typical for this time of year going into the spring market.  The year over year percentage drop for single family homes and condos is cause for concern.

We've also tracked an unusual drop in the number of new listings that went into contract within the same two week period.



None of the 104 new listings of single family homes went into contract in the last two weeks and only eight of the 148 new listings of condos went into contract.  Since the beginning of the year we have usually seen 10-15% of new listings go into contract within the same two week period.

And finally, the number of price reductions has remained the same as the prior two week period (27 vs 28) but is well below the 38 price reductions we saw a year ago.



Monday, February 26, 2018

Woohoo! Inventory Is Up

Compared to last year at this time new listings have increased by 15%.  For the two weeks ending February 26 there were 283 new listings compared to 245 a year ago and compared to 278 in the prior 2-week period.




The majority of new listings was single family homes (113 vs 93 a year ago and vs 106 compared to the prior twp-week period.  New condo listings were also up compared to a year ago (170 vs 152) but actually down slightly compared to the previous 2-week period (170 vs 172).


A smaller percentage of new listings went into contract.  9.7% of new listing single family homes went into contract compared to 17.2% a year ago and compared to 15.1% for the prior period.  11.8% of new condo listings went into contract compared to 15.8% a year ago and compared to 15.1% for the prior period.

The number of price reductions held steady compared to the prior period -- 8 single family homes and 20 condos compared to 7 and 18 respectively two weeks ago.  Compared to last year the number of price reductions is the same for single family homes but down compared to condos (20 vs 27). 




The Five Golden Rules of Home Staging on a Budget


Staging a home before putting it on the market can be an expensive proposition.  Here are some ideas for those who want to avoid that expense but still present their property the best light.

The Five Golden Rules of Home Staging on a Budget:

And check the comments for a few more.


Tuesday, February 13, 2018

New Listing Report and Active Listings Report

New listings were slightly ahead of the same two week period last year -- 278 to 253. 


15% of those new listings went into contract within the same two week period which is about level with the last three reporting periods back to the first of the year.



Price reductions for the past two weeks were double those of the prior two week period but were only a scant 7 for single family homes and 14 condos.

We also track the total number of active listings for five configurations of single family homes and condos at the beginning of each month.  In three of those five categories total active listings at the beginning of February were down compared to last year at this time. 


Even though the weather may last week may have said "spring market", we are still facing very low inventory levels and continuing high demand.  Attendance at weekend open house showings is strong and multiple offers abound.


Monday, January 15, 2018

New Listing Report -- New Year; Same Pattern

We're two weeks into the new year and new listings continue to follow the trend seen year after year.  After virtually no new listings over the holidays, they have started to appear right on cue:



Compared to the prior two week period new listings of both single family homes and condos have increased five-fold (72 new single family home listings vs 15 during the previous period; 152 new condo listings vs 33).   However, compared to the same time period a year ago new listings are down almost 10%.  This doesn't bode well for hopes of easing the tight inventory situation we've had for the last couple of years.

The number of new listings going into contract in the most recent two weeks has doubled compared to the prior two week period but, as a percentage, has eased (17% of single family home and condo new listings).


The number of price reductions has remained steady (and low) at 3 single family home reductions and 8 condo price reductions.


If previous year patterns hold, we should expect to see an increase in price reductions as well as the usual increase in new listings but there is no sign that demand will decrease.

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Annual Residential Sales -- San Francisco and Marin

Both counties showed an uptick in residential sales for 2017 compared to 2016. 



It wasn't a huge increase (2.2% in San Francisco and 3.1% in Marin), but in each case it's the first year-over-year gain in sales in four years.

(Note -- these numbers come from the San Francisco MLS and BAREIS.  They generally do not contain numbers of new construction homes sold during the year.)