Wednesday, December 19, 2018

New Listing Watch -- hold on folks, we're almost at the bottom

Continuing true to form the number of new listings over the past two weeks is at its lowest for the year except for our next report December 31.  There were just 51 new single family home listings compared to 74 in the prior period and compared to 37 at the same time last year.

Similarly there were 41 new condo listings compared to 73 in the prior period.  However, last year at this time there were 61.



The number of new listings going into contract in the same two week period rose for both single family homes and condos compared to the prior period.  There were 14 single family homes vs 8 in the prior period and 12 a year ago.  There wee 6 condos vs 2 in the prior period and 15 a year ago.


The number of price reductions fell compared to the prior period and compared to the same period last year for both single family homes and condos.  There were 15 price reductions for single family homes vs 18 in the prior period and compared to just 1 in the same period last year.  For condos there were 19 price reductions compared to 33 in the prior period and 10 last year.

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

New Listing Watch -- typical end of year drop off

The number of new listings during the two weeks ending December 3rd (which included Thanksgiving) was down from the prior two week period (147 vs 189) and just about even with last year (147 vs 141).

Only 8 single family homes were newly listed in the last two weeks, the same as a year ago and down from 21 during the prior period.  New condo listings were down compared to the prior two weeks (73 vs 112) and down compared to a year ago (73 vs 81).



The percentage of new listings going into contract during the same two week period was down as expected.  For single family homes only 11% went into contract compared to 27% during the prior two week period and compared to 13% a year ago.  For condos, 3% went into contract compared to 13% during the prior period and compared to 21% a year ago.



Also as expected the number of price reductions was down compared to the prior two week period.  However, compared to last year the number of reductions was up for both single family homes (18 vs 5) and condos (33 vs 18).


If this year follows recent trends (and we don't see any reason it won't), new listings will continue to drop until the second week of the new year (see the first graph above).

As always, the full report is available on our web site:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics


Saturday, November 17, 2018

Statistics -- they never seem to tell the whole story.

Trulia just put out a report picked up by the San Francisco Chronicle on their sfgate.com site that carried the headline "15 SF neighborhoods where median price is under $1M".



(Click to go directly to the Trulia report where the map is interactive and shows not just San Francisco neighborhoods but all across the country).

I get that the point of the story is to show how unaffordable housing has become in our city.  But they're not comparing apples to apples. 

For example, the median selling price in 2018 for a home in the Tenderloin and Civic Center neighborhoods is $852,000.  Those neighborhoods are two of the fifteen that are still under one million.  Compare that to the neighborhoods of Potrero Hill and Dogpatch where the median sales price this year has been $1,210,000 and has been over a million for at least two years.

However, the median size of the properties selling in the Tenderloin and Civic Center is a one bedroom, one bath home in 745sf.  Compare that to the median in Potrero Hill and Dogpatch which is a two bedroom, two bath home in 1,020sf.  The cost per square foot in both areas is virtually identical ($1,144/sf in the Tenderloin and Civic Center vs $1,142 in Potrero Hill and Dogpatch).

That exposes one of the problems of lumping all residential sales into one median or average number, especially when you're trying to compare relatively small geographic areas such as city neighborhoods.

If you want a true comparison using these neighborhoods as an example, take a look at the median cost of a one bedroom, one bath condo.  In the Tenderloin and Civic Center area the median sales price for this year so far is, as noted above, $852,000.  The median sales price in Potrero Hill and Dogpatch is actually lower -- $807,000.  (It's also smaller -- 695sf vs 745sf).

Averages/medians don't mean a lot to a prospective buyer or seller if they lump all homes (studios and mansions alike) together in one number.  That's why our sales reports look at specific configurations of single family homes and condos which gives a truer picture.


Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Volume of Residential Sales UP

For the first ten months of the year the total number of residential sales of single family homes and condos/TICs has reached a three-year high of 4,382 units:


We typically see an average of over 400 sales each month for November and December.  If that holds for this year we should have an annual total of approx. 5,200 sales.  That would be the highest in the last four year.

Monthly sales totals this year have been higher than last year in 6 of 10 months.  Four of those came in February through May.

Stay tuned.

Monday, November 5, 2018

New Listing Watch - back to normal?

The number of new listings during the past two weeks was virtually identical to the same period a year ago.  There were 124 new listings for single family homes vs 111 a year ago.  There were 165 new listings of condos compared to 171 a year ago.

Compared to the prior two week period there was a significant drop which is typical for this time of year:  124 vs 164 for single family homes and 165 vs 209 for condos.



The percentage of new listings that went into contract in the same two week period is up compared to the prior period (slightly for single family homes, 10.5% vs 9.8%; and more substantially for condos: 10.9% vs 6.2%).


However, the number of price reductions in the last two weeks maintains the trend over the past two months -- much higher numbers than a year ago.  There were 33 price reductions of single family homes compared to 18 a year ago.  There were 58 reductions on condos compared to 35 a year ago.


The full report can be found at our web site:  www.boldsf.com

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Real Estate Brokerage -- More Consolidation

From RISMedia:
Realogy announced today it will be expanding its portfolio of brand offerings, franchising Corcoran® and Climb Real Estate® for the first time and selling agreements as early as 2019. The Realogy portfolio currently includes Better Homes and Gardens® Real Estate, CENTURY 21®, Coldwell Banker® and Coldwell Banker Commercial®, ERA®, and Sotheby’s International Realty®.


The San Francisco-based Climb brokerage sold itself to Realogy in 2016 so this franchising isn't technically consolidation.  But the Corcoran deal certainly is.

Presumably, this is (at least part of) Realogy's strategy to counter other growing brokerages and real estate sales business models such as Compass, REXX and Zillow Offers.



Monday, October 22, 2018

New Listing Watch -- more signs of change


We just concluded our survey of new listings for the past two weeks.  Here are the highlights:
  • 17% more new listings than the same period a year ago
  • almost 3x the number of single family home price reductions than a year ago 
  • 50% more condo price reductions than a year ago
  • the number of new listings of single family homes that went into contract within the same two-week period fell from 13% a year ago to 10% this year
  • the number of new listings of condos that went into contract within the same two-week period fell from 28% to just 6% this year
At the time of year when the number of new listings should be trending down, we're seeing new listings every two weeks since Labor Day higher than during the same period for the last four years.

.

Simultaneously we're seeing higher rates of price reductions than we have during the last four years.


Finally, the percentage of new listings going into contract in the same two-week period is down substantially for condos but also to a lesser extent for single family homes compared to the same period a year ago.


Our full report can be found at our web site:
http://www.boldsf.com/Statistics%20test/Statistics.html


Saturday, October 13, 2018

New Listing Market Watch - signs of change

New listings in the last two weeks are lower than the previous period but higher than a year ago and the percentage of new listings going into contract in the same two weeks has fallen compared to the previous period and compared to a year ago.  But the most notable item that stands out is the number of price reductions, particularly in the condo market.

Compared to the previous period price reductions of single family homes rose from 27 to 37.  Price reductions of condos rose by 75% from 46 to 81.  (As a reminder, condos represented in this report are those listed in the MLS and do not include the majority of new construction condos being sold directly by the developer.  However, we have seen asking prices for new construction condos drop in some developments and often being accompanied by incentives to both buyer and buyer's agent).

Compared to a  year ago price reductions have doubled for single family homes (18 vs 37) and increased by 65% (49 vs 81).


As mentioned above, new listings of both single family homes and condos have fallen compared to the prior two week period (154 vs 189 for single family homes and 229 vs 272 for condos).  Although this has been the pattern in previous years, the number of new listings of condos is noticeably higher than a year ago (229 vs 189).


The number of new listings that went into contract in the most recent two week period has fallen by half compared to the prior period and compared to a year ago.  For single family homes 9.7% went into contract compared to 11.6% in the prior period and compared to 12.6% a year ago.  For condos, 5.2% went into contract compared to 9.6% during the prior period and 11.6% a year ago. 5.2% is the lowest percentage of condos going into contract in the same two week period in the last 12 months.



Saturday, October 6, 2018

Interest Rates Heading Higher

(From Business Insider)


Notice the similarity to the 30-year mortgage interest rates:



Here's a graph with both:



This is a reasonable predictor of mortgage interest rates.

And despite the somewhat hysterical headline and the underlying story which is discussing stock/equity markets, this trend will have effects on the overall economy.

Friday, September 28, 2018

More Real Estate Brokerage Consolidation

Just a month ago we got the news that Compass was gobbling up Pacific Union and Paragon brokerages, we've just realized that Hill & Co is being acquired by Alain Pinel.

The difference between the two acquisitions seems to boil down to Hill management wanting to retain its "family owned" reputation.  According to its president, Jay Costello, Hill had been approached by Compass but turned them down.  Alain Pinel has over 800 agents compared to Hill's 80.  However, a check of the state Department of Real Estate web site shows just 38 Hill agents and brokers.

The full story and perspective is available at the San Francisco Business Times.




Tuesday, September 25, 2018

New Listing Watch -- the fall season continues

New listings for condos and single family homes during the last two weeks were up just 4% from the previous two week period (461 vs 444).  Compared to the same period a year ago new listings are up 14% (461 vs 403).



The majority of new listings were condos (272 vs 252 in the prior two week period and vs 241 a year ago).  Single family homes accounted for 189 new listings compared to 192 in the prior two week period and compared to 162 a year ago.

The percentage of new single family home listings that went into contract during the same two week period jumped up to 11.6% compared to 8.9% during the prior period and compared to 8.6% a year ago.  The percentage of condos that went into contract stayed the same compared to the prior period (9.6% vs 9.5%) but was higher than a year ago (9.6% vs 7.5%).  For both single family homes and condos the percentage going into contract within the same two week period is still down compared to where we were in the period prior to Labor Day.


There was a significant jump in price reductions for both single family homes and condos.  For this period there were 27 price reductions for single family homes compared to just 4 in the prior period and compared to 17 a year ago.  The numbers for condos was 46 for this period compared to 34 for the prior period and compared to 34 a year ago.


The full report can be found at our web site:
www.boldsf.com
click on statistics.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Worth Remembering

Sometimes we forget to recommend the simplest things to our sellers that will help attract potential buyers.  I wouldn't call them "slip-ups" -- if anything they are tips we agents need to give to our sellers:
(click image to enlarge)



Tuesday, September 11, 2018

New Listing Watch -- September comes in with a roar

Although a surge of new listings is totally predictable for the week following Labor Day, this year's surge is the largest since 2015.


There were 444 new listings in the last two weeks compared to 383 during the same period last year - a 16% increase.  192 were new listings of single family homes compared to 155 a year ago and 252 new listings of condos compared to 228 a year ago.

With the surge in new listings only 9% of single family home new listings went into contract during the same period and 9.5% of condo new listings went into contract.  But both of those are higher than a year ago.


There were only 4 price reductions of the new listing single family homes -- down dramatically from the previous two week period when there were 14.  Price reductions of the new listing condos more than doubled from 16 in the prior period to 34 in the past two weeks.


You can find the full report at our web site www.boldsf.com/Statistics


Tuesday, August 28, 2018

New Listing Market Watch - End of Summer

The title is a little misleading here in San Francisco where, from a weather perspective, summer starts after Labor Day when most of us will be thankful that the low cloud and fog that keeps our days gray will be mostly gone and sunshine will return.

A few interesting things to note in this report:

The total number of new listings in the last two weeks is up 9% compared to the same period a year ago (220 vs 201).  We expect new listings to jump significantly the week following Labor Day so it looks like sellers have decided to get a jump on that market.  All of this increase is in the single family home market (105 vs 79).  New listings of condos is down compared to a year ago (115 vs 122).

Compared to the previous two week period the number of new listings is up slightly (220 vs 209).  Again the increase is entirely in the single family home market (105 vs 94).  The number of new listings of condos is the same as in the prior period (115 vs 115).

click to enlarge

The number of new listings going into contract is up compared to both the prior period and compared to the same period a year ago.  For single family homes there were 16 that went into contract compared to 11 in the prior period and 5 in the same period a year ago.  For condos the numbers were 26 for this period, 17 for the prior period and 5 for the same period a year ago.  We interpret this to indicate a strong demand by buyers.

click to enlarge

Finally, the number of price reductions for single family homes remained virtually the same as the prior period (14 vs 13) and up compared to a year ago (14 vs 5).  However, price reductions of condos was down compared to both the prior period and a year ago (16 vs 20 vs 21).

Monday, August 13, 2018

New Listing Market Watch - marking time waiting for Labor Day

Total new listings during the last two weeks is up slightly compared to the same period a year ago (209 vs 200) but down significantly compared to the prior two weeks.(209 vs 244).


The number of those new listings that went into contract in the same two week period stayed mostly the same as the prior period for single family homes (11.7% vs 10.3%) but down for condos (14.8% vs 18.0%).  However, the percentage of new listings going into contract within the same two week period during the last two weeks was significantly higher than during the same period a year ago (11.7% vs 4.3% for single family homes and 14.8% vs 2.8% for condos).


The total number of price reductions during the last week is virtually identical to the prior period and compared to the same period last year (33 vs 32 vs 33) although the split between single family homes and condos.  Most notably, there is a sharp difference comparing single family home price reductions during the most recent two week period and the same period a year ago (13 vs 4).


All of this is consistent with normal seasonal patterns.  The next two week period should be similar to this period but the period following Labor Day should show a significant increase in new listings.

The full report along with our other current reports is available at our web site:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics

Monday, July 30, 2018

New Listing Market Watch -- mid summer

Overall there were somewhat fewer new listings in the last two weeks than the prior two week period (244 vs 257) but, compared to a year ago, the number of new listings is up over 10%.

Breaking it down, the number of new listings of single family homes was the same as the prior period (116) and up slightly compared to a year ago (116 vs 108).  For condos, the number of new listings is down compared to the prior period (128 vs 141) but up compared to a year ago (128 vs 111).


The number of new listings of single family homes that went into contract within the same two week period remained about the same as the previous period and the same time last year (116 vs 116 vs 108).  But for condos, the number going into contract in the same two week period jumped up from 23 from 15 during the prior period and 19 a year ago.


The number of price reductions remained about the same for single family homes compared to the prior period and compared to a year ago (16 vs 15 vs 16).  The number of price reductions for condos fell compared to the prior period but was the same as a year ago (16 vs 23 vs 16).


One interesting note:  of the 16 price reductions of single family homes, all 16 were for properties with listing prices over $1,000,000.  Eight of those were originally priced at over $2,000,000.

Monday, July 16, 2018

New Listing Market Watch - post Fourth of July

Overall, the number of new listings in the last two weeks was 6% more than the same period last year (257 vs 243).  That's a typical increase/rebound following the Fourth of July holiday.  But look a little closer and you see new listings of single family homes was up 27% compared to the same period last year (and, coincidently, compared to the prior two week period) 116 vs 91.

New listings of condos was down 7% compared to the same period last year (141 vs 152) and virtually the same compared to the prior two week period (141 vs 138).


The number of those new listings that went into contract in the same two week period were about the same as last year for single family homes (11 vs 7) and the prior two week period (11 vs 12).  It's a different story for condos:  more than twice as many new listings went into contract compared to a year ago (15 vs 6)  but less than half compared to the prior period (15 vs 38).



The number of price reductions for single family homes remained at the same level compared to the same period a year ago and the prior period (15 vs 16, and 15 vs 14).  However, the number of price reductions for condos was down significantly compared to a year ago (23 vs 41) and also down compared to the prior period (23 vs 30).



Saturday, July 7, 2018

The Missing Piece in Electronic Signing for Real Estate Transactions

Below is a link to a blog post by a company (new to me) called "Notarize".  They have created a system to facilitate on-line signing and notarizing of documents -- "notarizing" being the operative word.

Although we've been able to do listing and selling of real estate with electronically signed documents for some time, the missing piece has been the final closing documents, including loan documents, that traditionally are signed in person at the escrow/title office.

It's not clear whether electronic signing of loan documents is or will be acceptable to lenders and/or county recorders.

But it seems inevitable that's the direction we're headed.





Friday, July 6, 2018

New Listing Market Watch -- Summer downturn has begun

As anticipated, new listings dropped during the past two weeks. New single family home listings were 91 compared to 154 in the previous two week period.  Similarly, new condo listings dropped to 138 compared to 207 in the prior period.

However, compared to a year ago new listings are higher for both single family homes (91 vs 62) and condos (138 vs 96).


As might be expected, the percentage of new listings that went into contract during the same two week period went up slightly to 13% vs 12% during the prior two week period.  For condos the increase was more sizable:  28% vs 15%.


The number of price reductions has remained basically unchanged at 14 for single family homes compared to both the prior period and a year ago.  Similarly for condos the number of price reductions was 30 compared to 37 during the prior period and 31 a year ago.

The full report can be seen at our web site:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics

And, our little hibiscus plant in the front window has been blooming it's head off.




Monday, June 18, 2018

New Listing Report -- more this June than last year

The number of new listings during the past two weeks jumped 20% compared to the prior two week period and compared to the same period last year (361 vs 301 in the prior period and vs 303 in the same period last year.


The increase compared to the prior period was mostly in single family homes (154 vs 114, 35%).  In condos the increase was smaller (207 vs 187, 11%).

Compared to the prior period the number of new listings going into contract during the past two weeks was down slightly for both single family homes (12% vs 15%) and condos (14.5% vs 15%).  Compared to the same period a year ago the percentage that went into contract were up significantly (11.7% vs 2.3% of single family homes and 14.5% vs 5.9% of condos).



The number of price decreases during the last two weeks is virtually the same as the prior period for single family homes (15 vs 14) but up for condos (37 vs 27). 



The entire report can be seen at our web site: www.boldsf.com/Statistics

Monday, June 4, 2018

New Listing Report - fewer new listings and fewer price reductions

For the two weeks ending 6/5/18 the total number of new listings was less than the previous two weeks (301 vs 355) but slightly more than the same time last year (301 vs 287).  This is fairly typical for this time of year.



The drop in new listings compared to the previous period was in both single family homes (114 vs 145) and condos (187 vs 210). 

The percentage of new listings that went into contract within the same two week period dropped by almost 2% for single family homes but increased slightly for condos compared to the previous period.  But those percentages were higher than a year ago.



The number of price reductions is also down for both single family homes and condos compared to the prior period and compared to a year ago.


The full report can be found at our website:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics


Friday, May 25, 2018

Is it a better financial decision to rent or buy?

Zillow has published a study based on first quarter 2018 data that estimates how many years of home ownership would be required before it becomes less expensive to own than to rent.  Here's a quick breakdown of the Bay area counties:





Here's a sample of their data:


The entire article can be found at:
https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-learning/trends/breakeven-horizon/

There are all sorts of assumptions made when doing these calculations so use with caution.  Nevertheless, if a buyer can actually purchase a home in the Bay area and if they plan on holding it for 3-4 years minimum, it's likely they will come out ahead compared to renting a similar property, according to this study.

It's worth noting that the main part of the article compares the 25 largest "metro areas".  This phrase usual means "metropolitan statistical areas" as determined by the federal government.  For some reason the San Francisco/Oakland/Fremont MSA is not included and nor is Phoenix.  But a city like Portland is included even though the city of Portland its MSA are both smaller than San Francisco.  However, if you use the interactive map on the Zillow link above it provides data by county.