October sales highlights

Updated reports have been posted on our web site:

www.boldsf.com/Statistic

San Francisco

New Listing Market Watch

Compared to the previous two week period:

• Big drop in new condo/TIC listings 161 vs 232
• Big increase in condo/TIC price reductions

Compared to the same two week period a year ago:

• Smaller number of price reductions of single-family homes
• Somewhat smaller number of price reductions of condos/TICs
• Total new listings down 17% compared to the prior two week period but just about equal to the same period last year.

Fundamentals

• Inventory is virtually the same both for single family homes and condos/TICs compared to two weeks ago
• Sales for the month so far (we have one day to go) shows single family homes near what they were for October last year but condo sales are only 74% of what they were a year ago.

Market Analysis

• Big jump in avg sales price for 2/1 single family homes $1260 vs $1080 in September
• No similar increase in avg sales price for 3/2 single family homes.
• Both configurations are selling 12-14% over asking.
• Overall the number of sales of all single family homes was up 34% compared to September and slightly ahead of the same month a year ago.
• Number of sales of condos jumped 16% from 159 in September to 185 in October.  Average sales price of all condo sales dropped 7% from $1367 to $1267
• Big jump in the number of 1/1 condos sold in October:  50 vs 29 and a corresponding rise in average selling price:  $789 vs $670 and a drop in average days on market from 72 to 54.  Premium was at 98%, down 1% compared to September.
• Avg selling price of 2/1 condos was up 12% and for the first time in a while the premiums was over asking by 3%.

Marin

Fundamentals

• 4/4 single family homes averaging sales prices well below asking.
• Most premiums above average are in the smaller homes 2/1, 2/2, 3/2

Some "highlights" from April reports

SAN FRANCISCO

The total number of new listings (single family homes and condos) in each two-week period since the first of the year have been down consistently compared to the same periods in 2022.  We would expect that to change after July since that's when mortgage interest rates began to increase and new listings fell.

For condos, the number of price reductions rose from 73, in the most recent two week period, to 93 in the prior two week period.

The number of sales of single family homes in April rose to 165 compared to 148 in March.  However, the average sales price fell from $2,282,000 to $2,149,000 (almost 6%).  

Condo sales fell 10% to 208 compared to March but the average sales price increased 12% to $1,377,000.

Inventory for single family homes rose to 323 compared to 267 in March, a 20% jump.  The number of condo listings remained unchanged at 623.

Overall, San Francisco remains well below typical sales number for the first four months of the year.

 MARIN

Average selling price for single family homes in Marin in April was down but just slightly (1.4%) from $2,158.000 to $2,129,000.  However, of the six configurations of homes we track, four of them had average selling prices increase compared to March.

The average condo sales price was also down more significant at $809,000 compared to $946,000 in March, almost 15%.

Inventory, as is normal this time  of year, is up compared to March with 213 single family homes on the market compared to 130 in March.

Comparing first quarter sales this year vs 2022 of the six configurations of single family homes we track, the number of sales was down from 248 to 153, an almost 40% decline.  There was a similar 31% decline in condo sales for the four configurations we track.

Observations from January 2023 Reports

Most of our monthly reports were posted a week ago.  Here are some observations:

• Total sales are down compared to last month and last year.

• Recent headlines such as “Existing-home sales fell every single month in 2022, new NAR data shows”  is true but look closer:

The headline is only true if you’re comparing 2022 to 2021 both of which were anomalies.  (See first graph).  But 2021 had the highest number of monthly sales in 10 of 12 months.  Compared to 2019 (pre Covid) 2022 had more sales in 7 of 12 months (second graph).  

                (Click here for full size graphs)

• Annual average sales prices:  All but one of the five categories we survey (3/2 single family homes) are down compared to 2021.  2/1 and 3/2 single family homes and 2-flats are averaging above 2019 levels.  2/1 and 2/2 condos are within 3-45 of 2019 levels.  

• Big drop in DOM for 2/1 single family in January sales

• 1/1 condos avg selling price back up over $700k after dropping below $700k in December

• Big uptick in 2/1 condo listings

• Number of active listings is up across the board – not surprising since the comparison is to early January.

• No sales of 3-unit buildings in January – 28 available

• Premiums are easing on some single family homes.

• DOM on condos increasing 

• Of the 69 units active, in contract or pending priced under $500k 44 were BMR units (64%)

December and 4th Quarter Recap

This week we posted our regular monthly and quarterly reports for 2022 as well as our biweekly New Listing Market Watch report.  Here are some highlights (lowlights?).

NewListing Market Watch

• ·       Single family new listings: 94 in 2021, 64 in 2022, 42 this year.
• ·       Condo new listings: 241, 151, and 84

Fundamentals

• ·       Sales in December down compared to November (typical for this time of year)

• ·       Average selling prices are down compared to November, -2% for single family homes and 22% for condos.  Compared to December a year ago average selling prices are down 22% for single family homes and 24% for condos.

• ·       Inventory is up over 50% for single family homes compared to a year ago, and 7-8% for condos.

 

By PriceRange

• ·       Premiums for the year compared to 2021 were steady at 112% for single family homes and 103% for condos. 

• ·       BUT, for the last six months premiums dropped for single family homes to 105% and for condos to 100%.  (By comparison for the last half of 2021 premiums were 112% for single family homes and 105% for condos).

 

Quarterly

• ·       For the five configurations of single family homes and condos we track, the number of sales and average sales prices were down across the board.