Thursday, June 9, 2016

New Listing Market Watch - price reductions

The number of new listings of single family homes during the last two weeks is down compared to the previous two week period and also compared to the same time last year.  The opposite is true for condos -- the number of new listings is up compared to the previous two week period as well as the same period a year ago.

Usually this time of year we begin a period of fewer listings that lasts until after Labor Day.  There are signs that this pattern will hold true for single family homes but new listings of condos continues to rise.

The number of these new listings that went into contract during the same two week period is down slightly for both single family homes and condos compared to both the previous period and the same period a year ago.

The number of price reductions continues to be much higher than it was a year ago.  That's been true for four months in a row, since the end of February.

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Residential Construction Projects Currently Underway

San Francisco Business Times recently published a list of the top 25 residential developments currently under construction in San Francisco which comprise 7,097 units including market-rate and below-market-rate rental and ownership (condo) units.

36% of those units, circled in green below, are in the Potrero Hill/Dogpatch/Mission Bay neighborhoods.  1,522 units are in the Potrero/Showplace Square/Dogpatch neighborhood and another 1,063 in Mission Bay.

The other big concentration is in the SOMA/Rincon area.

Keep in mind, these are projects that were first proposed to the city's Planning Department three to five years ago (2011-2013).  That's how long it generally takes from initial filing to final completion assuming 1-2 years for actual construction.  

Busines Times Rankings

Our company, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices--Drysdale Properties, has been ranked #15 of 25 companies by gross sales in 2015.  We're #6 when ranked by number of properties sold!

Monday, June 6, 2016

New Listing Market Watch - more than last year

Here's a summary of changes since our last report:
  • Fewer new listings than two weeks ago (325 vs 366)
  • Somewhat more new listings than a year ago (325 vs 300)
  • About the same percentage of new listings going into contract as two weeks ago (10.4% vs 9.8% single family homes and 10.0% vs 12.9% condos)
  • Fewer price reductions of single family homes compared to two weeks ago (22 vs 32) and almost the same number of price reductions of condos (46 vs 45).  Compared to last year there were substantially more price reductions of condos (46 vs 17).

Below is a graph comparing new listings during 2015 compared to the first five months this year.

You can see that the 2016 new listings have mostly followed the same profile as last year until May (periods 9 and 10) when 2016 new listings grew more than they did in 2015.  It looks like the usual downturn in number of new listings we see in the July and August time frame has started a bit early this year.

Friday, June 3, 2016

Sales Volume Down

Although sales prices are at or near record highs, the number of residential properties* that have sold in San Francisco during the first five months of the year is well below what we've experienced for the past six years.   In fact, the number of sales hasn't been this low since 2009, the first full year of the last recession. *Single family homes, condos and TICs.

As the graph shows, we have been on a steady downward trend for the number of sales since the peak of 2013.  (This trend is consistent with full year results as well.)

San Francisco follows a very predictable month-to-month sales cycle during the calendar year. Monthly sales are lowest between Thanksgiving and February after which the spring market kicks in reaching a peak in May or June.  That's followed by a drop off through September.  There's another peak in October.

This year the spring market seems to be petering out early with essentially flat sales in March, April and May.

The graph is busy but it demonstrates the consistent monthly sales cycle (good years and bad years). However, this year (in dark blue) is well below sales last year (in red) and below almost every year we've been tracking these statistics.