New Listing Market Watch -- WOW

To sum up, everything is double what it was a year ago except single family homes price reductions.

There were 565 new residential listings in the last two weeks compared to 238 in the same period a year ago. Of those 565, 200 were single family homes and 365 were condos -- each more than double compared to a year ago.  This is the highest number of new listings for a two week period since at least 2014 when we first started tracking.

Even compared to the prior period new listings of single family homes rose from 177 to 200 and condos rose from 320 to 365. 

Condo price reductions was the other big number -- 151 compared to 25 a year ago and compared to 107 during the prior two week period.  Price reductions for single family homes were down:  only 5 in the last two weeks compared to 20 a year ago and compared to 39 in the prior two week period.

23% of new single family home listings went into contract compared to 18% in the prior period and compared to 18% a year ago.  Only 9% of condo new listings went into contract compared to 17% in the prior period and compared to 15% a year ago.

The full report can be found at our website.

San Francisco Residential Market by Price Range

Our Monthly Summary report and analyses track specific configurations of single-family homes and condos (e.g. 2 bedroom, 1 bath) with the largest number of sales.  The luxury end of our market was not truly represented in that survey and, therefore, we track residential sales by price range.  We have been tracking San Francisco residential sales by price range for about 3.5 years now. 

From our July 5th report:  for single family homes there were no homes that sold below $500K.  The largest number of sales was between $1m-$1.5m where approx. 30% of all single-family home sales were recorded.  The $1.5-$2m price range follows with 20% of closed sales.  The average days on market was 25 and 22 days respectively.
Also, the premium (selling price divided by asking price) was 112% and 111% respectively.
The next two higher price ranges ($2-$2.5m and $2.5-$3.5M) represent 11% and 13% of the total market.

80% of all single-family home sales are priced between $1M-$3.5M.

Following the generally accepted guidelines for luxury single family homes (the top 10% of the market by price) in San Francisco that would be homes priced at $3.5M and above.



Our condo/TIC market is about 56% of all residential MLS-reported sales.  There have been 29 condos that have sales prices below $500K; all but 8 of those sales were “below market” sales where the price is controlled/constrained by various city programs.

30% of all condo sales are in the $500K-$999K range.

The largest category price range is the $1M-$1.5M with 34% of all condo sales.  The second largest category with 21% of sales is $1.5M-$2M.  Average days on market for these two categories were 31 and 43 days respectively with premiums of 101% and 103%.
55% of our condo market is between $1M-$2M.

To qualify as a luxury condo in San Francisco (top 10% of the market) pricing would be $2.25M and above.

The full report is available on our web site.

New Listing Market Watch - new listings continue to soar

This is the second two-week period where new listings topped 200% or more compared to the same period a year ago.

There were 497 new listings in the last two weeks (177 single family homes and 320 condos) compared to 241 new listings (103 single family homes and 138 condos) in the same period a year ago.

For comparison, during the last two weeks only 122 properties closed escrow (56 single family homes and 66 condos) -- only 24% of the number of new listings.

This was also the fourth two-week period in a row where price reductions were double what they were in the same periods a year ago.

The full report is on our web site along with other reports we publish.

Tale of Two Markets

The San Francisco residential real estate market continues with an ever increasing number of new listings.  John and I have been tracking these "hot sheet" data every two weeks for at least the last seven years and the last 14 day period, June 15 thru June 29, has the highest number of new listings that we've seen.  Year over year during the same 14 day period total inventory was 236 last year and 520 this year, a 220% increase.  Compared to the prior two week period there was an 11% increase.

The San Francisco market has become a rather unique community as 70% of residential properties are condos/TICs and only 30% are single family homes.  With limited available land the percentage of condos/TICs will continue to grow with single family homes becoming an even scarcer commodity.

While the total number of new listings have been record breaking the distribution between single family homes and condos/TICs is well worth noting.  64% of the listings were condos/TICs with single family homes accounting for the other 36%.

The single family home market showed an increase of available inventory to about 10 weeks but 2 bedroom/1 bath and 3 bedroom/2 bath categories went up to only 4 and 7 weeks respectively.  June closings so far show that 26 2/1 single family homes closed with an average selling price of $1.26 million, 21 days on market, and premium (selling price/listing price) of 110%.  There were also 30 3/2 single family homes that closed at an average selling price of $1.6 million, 18 days on market, and premium of 106% (selling price/listing price).

We should also quickly note the numbers of luxury homes has also increased and available inventory has risen to about 3 months for homes priced between $2.5 - $5 million and 6 months for homes priced over $5 million.

The condo market place is entirely different.  During the same 14 day period a year ago there were 128 new listings compared to 333 this year -- a 260% increase.  The biweekly to biweekly comparison is only 7% increase.

Typical for San Francisco you would find available inventory running from 4-6 weeks.  With the huge numbers of properties coming on the market in just the last three 2-week reporting periods new inventory has totalled 913 units.  Available inventory for homes priced below $1.5 million is 8-10 weeks; $1.5-$2.5 is 12 weeks; $2.5-$4.5 is 20 weeks; properties above $4.5 million jumps to 40 weeks.

Sold condos in June results are as follows.  For the two largest categories of condominiums (1/1 and 2/2) there were 29 closed 1/1 units with an average selling price of $893k with days on market of 35 and a premium of 100%.  For 2/2 units, 39 closed with an average selling price of $1.6 million, 37 days on market and a premium of 99%.

While buyers will find a broader array of residential properties available single family homes remain in demand and it appears that premiums will be between 2-8% rathether than the 10-20% we've seen previously.  The condo market is under pressure from the sheer number of listings and we expect to see some leveling or lowering of prices given the history number of price reductions we've seen over the past 8 weeks.