Monday, February 13, 2017

New Listing Watch -- inventory climbs

On the standard roller coaster (or sine wave, if you prefer) that represents activity in the San Francisco real estate market, inventory and new listings have begun to increase right on schedule.

The number of new listings going into contract within the last two weeks has eased off for single family homes (15% vs 22% two weeks ago) but ticked up slightly for condos (15% vs 12%).

The number of price reductions has risen.  For single family homes there were 10 reductions compared to just 1 two weeks ago and compared to 10 a year ago.  For condos, there were 21 price reductions vs 12 two weeks ago and 11 for the same period a year ago.

Clients sometimes feel they're kind of like these guys.  They have a great view but feel somewhat precarious:

Monday, January 30, 2017

New Listing Watch - one month into the new year

As expected new listings continued to increase in during the previous two weeks -- 267 compared to 244 in the previous two week period.  Most of that increase was in condominiums which showed 176 new listings compared to 155 for the prior period.  Of the 91 new single family home listings, 20 went into contract indicating very strong demand.  Of the 176 condo new listings, 21 went into contract, about the same as the prior period.

A year ago during the same two week period there were 218 new listings.

Price reductions on single family homes were almost non-existent.  12 condos posted price reductions, about the same as during the previous period and compared to the same period last year.

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

New Listing Watch

Well, we skipped posting about the two weeks preceding January 2 because there wasn't much to report (and holidays).  The last two weeks of December routinely see the smallest number of new listings of any two week period and this year (last year) was no exception.

But now that's out of the way, things begin to pickup right away.  During the two week period ending January 16 there were 89 new listings of single family homes and 155 condos compared to 91 and 138 respectively during the same period a year ago.

There was only one price reduction of single family homes and 15 price reductions of condos.

As we've seen during most of 2016, price reductions of condos are outpacing those of a year ago and it looks like that trend will continue into 2017.

Almost 17% of the single family home new listings went into contract during the same period (compared to 11% a year ago) but that's consistent with the pace we were experiencing since roughly the beginning of November.   14% of condos went into contract (compared to 17% last year).  

Although the percentage of new listing going into contract dropped considerably compared to the prior period that's mostly a function of so few new listings.

The full report can be found at our web site:

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

New Listing Watch - the year winds down

Seasons Greetings!  This will be the last "New Listing Watch" for 2016 and gives us an opportunity to look back over the year's changes, always looking for clues to what lies ahead.

As anticipated and similar to a year ago, new listings for the past two weeks have dropped off dramatically (80 vs 130 during the previous two week period).  For the same period last year there were 70 new listings.

The number of new listings that went into contract in the last two weeks is also up significantly with 18% of single family home new listings and 32% of condo new listings going into contract compared with 9% and 16% two weeks ago as buyers (and their agents) try to get sales nailed down before the holidays kick in.  We saw similar numbers a year ago.

Continuing the trend we've seen most of the year, the number of price reductions in the last two weeks is considerably higher than a year ago:  11 single family homes and 20 condos saw price reductions in the last two weeks compared to only 3 and 5 respectively during the same period last  year.

The graph above shows quite well that price reductions this year far exceeded those of last year.  For single family homes there have been 485 price reductions this year compared to just 314 in 2015 -- a 54% increase.  For condos the numbers are 928 this year vs 437 last year -- a 112% increase.  

The number of new listings this year is just about the same as 2015 -- 7,063 so far in 2016 vs 6,717 in 2015.

In our other reports where we report on the number of sales of various configurations of single family homes and condos in San Francisco, the result of this price reduction pressure can be seen especially in condos where two of the three condo configurations we track are showing lower average sales prices than the average 2015 sales price.  For example, the average sales price of a 2-bedroom/1-bath condo in 2015 was $1,024,000.  So far in 2016 the average price has been $994,000.  That's not a huge drop but it is significant since it's the first drop in average sales price after four years of consistent increases.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

New Listing Market Watch - the same as last year but different

There are certain patterns in the San Francisco real estate market that are as predictable as rain in winter.

Here's what we wrote a year ago for the same two week period.  It perfectly describes the most recent two week period:
Our New Listing Watch survey done today and looking back at the last two weeks shows the number of new listing and the number of new listings going into contract during that period to be almost exactly the same as a year ago.  This demonstrates the seemingly inexorable seasonal variations.we see every year at this time:  the number of listings will continue to go down until after New Year's when they will quickly increase and reach their spring peak in June.
The number of new single family home listings during the two weeks ending December 5 is exactly the same as it was a year ago -- 56.  New condo listings were 74 compared to 75 a year ago.

There are two items of interest relating to condos.  First, the percentage of new listings that went into contract during the most recent two week period was significantly higher than for the same period last year:  16% vs. 3%.  

Second, although the number of price reductions during the most recent two week period is almost identical to a year ago, it's well below the average during the last six months: 19 compared to an average of 47 every two weeks since April.

Finally, based on the number of residential sales through the end of November, the total number of sales (as recorded in the SFMLS) will fall below last year.  This will be the third year in a row where annual sales are less than the previous year.  The last time we saw this trend was during the height of the recession (2007 through 2009).