Wednesday, October 16, 2019

At the Beginning the 4th quarter

The San Francisco real estate market remains strong, especially averages selling prices.

Average selling prices for the five configurations of homes we track (which make up approx 60% of all home sales) continue to be at historic highs with only one exception:


*includes condos, co-ops and TICs



Year over year, the total number of sales fell by 6%; single family homes were down by 3% and condos were down by 7%.

As typical after Labor Day, inventory increased month over month by over 5% while single family homes were down by 10% but condos were up 15%.  The largest inventory increase in our record keeping was back in 2010 when a total of 1,229 single family homes and condos were added to the market.  This year that inventory increase was 665.  During the intervening years the increases were in the 400s to 500s range.

Monday, October 7, 2019

New Listing Market Watch - past the peak

Following two two-week periods since Labor Day of increases in new listings, the number of new listings in the most recent two weeks is down  (403 vs 505 in the previous period and vs 441 four weeks ago). 



That's still more than we saw a year ago which posted 383 new listings. The difference is entirely in the condo category:  264 vs 229 a year ago.  There were 10% fewer new listings of single family homes compared to a year ago:  139 vs 154.



The percentage of new listings that went into contract is up slightly compared to the previous period and compared to a year ago.  For single family homes 12.9% went into contract vs 11.5% in the prior period and 9.7% a yea ago.  For condos 11.0% vs 10.5% in the prior period and 5.2% a year ago.



Price reductions for single family homes was the same as the prior period and down compared to a year ago:  31 vs 31 in the prior period and vs 37 a year ago.  For condos there were 73 price reductions compared to 51 in the prior period and 81 a year ago.



Monday, September 23, 2019

New Listing Market Watch -- Fall Surge, second installment

All  you need to know is that everything is up 10-15% compared to a year ago, although it's a little more nuanced than that.

During the past two weeks there were 505 new listings of single family homes and condos compared to the same period last year -- up 10%.  Compared to the prior period total new listings were up 15%.  Most of this increase was in condos -- 313 vs 272 a year ago and vs 267 in the prior period.



Price reductions were also up compared to both the same period last year and the previous period this year.  There were 31 price reductions of single family homes, 15% higher than the same period last year (27) and more than three times in the prior period (9).  Condos saw 51 price reductions -- 11% higher than a year ago (46) and more than twice the number in the prior period (22).


As illustrated in the graphs above, if the typical cycle holds the number of new listings will start to drop by the time of our next report in two weeks.  That decline will continue through the New Year's holiday.

The number of new listings that went into contract in the last two weeks was consistent with a year ago (11.5% vs 11.6% for single family homes and 10.5% vs 9.6% for condos).


Tuesday, September 10, 2019

New Listing Market Watch - The Fall Surge

As predicted everywhere and every year new listings increase dramatically right after Labor day and this year is no exception.


Since the beginning of June we've averaged 249 new listings every two weeks.  In the two weeks ending yesterday there were 441 new listings.  It's easy to predict that two weeks from now we will see another surge in new listings.  There were 174 new listings of single family homes compared to 85 in the prior period and compared to 192 a year ago.  Similarly, there were 267 new listings of condos compared to 122 in the prior period and 252 a year ago. 

There were only 9 price reductions of single family homes in the last two weeks compared to virtually the same number in the two prior periods each and compared to only 4 a year ago.  The story is a little different for condo price reductions -- in the last two weeks there were 22 price reductions, a little higher than in each of the  prior two periods, and compared to 34 a year ago.



As we've noted before, all of these new listings aren't "new new" listings.  Some properties that had been on the market but not sold in June/July may have been taken off the market and then brought back on 30+ days later.  That resets the "days on market" clock to zero days on market.