Monday, September 11, 2017

Jump in new listings - as predicted

Right on time, as predicted, new listings have increased dramatically in the last two weeks.  Total new listings were 383 compared to 201 in the prior two week period.  For the same period a year ago new listings were 368.  The increase was evenly split between single family homes (155 vs 79 in the prior period) and condos (228 vs 122).


As can be seen from this graphic, this jump in new listings happens every year post Labor Day.


The percentage of new listings going into contract remained unchanged for single family homes compared to the prior period (6.5% vs 6.3%) but is up significantly compared to a year ago (6.5% vs 1.3%).  For condos 6.1% of new listings went into contract compared to 4.1% for the prior period and 3.9% a year ago.


The number of price reductions increased for single family homes to 11 compared to 5 in the prior period and 10 a year ago.  For condos, there were 31 price reductions compared to 21 for the prior period and 35 a year ago.


Friday, September 8, 2017

Are Buyers Finally Telling Sellers "No" to High Asking Prices?

At the beginning of each month we post a list of sales in the surrounding neighborhoods of our two offices (1715 Polk St. and 2324 Market St.) for the previous month.

August is traditionally a slow month for residential sales in San Francisco but something interesting seems to be happening in the Nob Hill, Russian Hill and Civic Center/Van Ness neighborhoods -- the number and percentage of sales closing at under asking prices is going up.

For August 2017 there were 17 residential sales in the three neighborhoods.  6 of those sales closed at below asking price -- 35%.  For August last year the numbers were 17 sales, 3 below asking -- 18%.

For the previous month (July 2017), there were 22 sales, 2 under asking -- 9%.











Admittedly the numbers are small and may not be indicative of a trend but we'll keep watching.

In the neighborhoods surrounding our Market St. office, the trend seems to be in the opposite direction.  This August only 6% of sales were under asking.  A year ago it was 19%.


Monday, August 28, 2017

New Listing Watch - Summer doldrums continue, part 2

Not a lot has changed during the last two weeks which, if history is predictive, should be the last of the summer doldrums.  The number of new single family home listings is down slightly from the previous two-week period (79 vs 92) and compared to a year ago (79 vs 101).  The number of new condo listings is actually up compared to the prior two-week period (122 vs 108) and is the same as a year ago (122 vs 122).


But, as the graph above illustrates, we should expect to see significant increases in the number of new listings for both condos and single family homes by our next report in two weeks following the Labor Day weekend.

The percentage of new listings going into contract is also about the same as it was for the prior two week period (6.3% vs 4.3% for single family homes; and 4.1% vs 2.8% for condos).  However, for the same period a year ago those percentages were 12,9% and 14.8%.  


The number of price reductions is almost the same as the prior two-week period (5 vs 4 for single family homes; and 21 vs 29 for condos).  A year ago those numbers were much higher:  20 and 24 respectively).




Monday, August 14, 2017

New Listing Watch - Summer doldrums continue

Still in the middle of "summer" doldrums, new listings for the last two weeks totaled 200, approximately the same as the previous period and the same period a year ago (219 and 219 respectively.  If the usual annual trends hold true this year, we'll begin seeing an increase in new listings the week following Labor day.


Along with fewer new listings coming on the market, it's not surprising that the number of new listings going into contract is also at a low level for both single family homes and condos (4.3% and 2.8% respectively).  These levels are evening lower than the previous period (9.3% and 17.1%) but about the same as a year ago (4.4% and 4.7%).


Finally, the number of price reductions (4) is down for single family homes compared to the previous period and compared to a year ago (16 and 22 respectively).  It's a mixed picture for condo price reductions which saw 29 price reductions during the past two weeks compared to 16 during the previous period and compared to 33 a year ago.


Monday, July 31, 2017

New Listing Watch -- summer doldrums?




The number of new listings in the past two weeks (108 single family homes and 111 condos) was down noticeably compared to the prior two week period (91 single family homes and 152 condos) and down significantly compared to the same period last year (136 single family homes and 177 condos).

Also worthy of note, the number of new listings of condos and single family homes was approximately equal, something that hasn't happened since the beginning of 2016.

The percentage of those new listings in the last two weeks that went into contract was up compared to the prior period (9.3% vs 7.7% of single family homes and 17.1% vs 3.9% of condos).  Compared to a year ago the percentage of single family homes that went into contract in the same two week period remained virtually the same (9.3% vs 10.3%).  However, there was a significant jump in condos going into contract ( 17.1% vs 9.0%).


The number of price reductions compared to the prior period remained unchanged for single family homes (16) but dropped significantly for condos (16 vs 41).  Compared to the same period last year the number of price reductions dropped in both groups (16 vs 20 single family homes and 16 vs 39 condos).