Monday, December 31, 2018

New Listing Watch -- last of the year

We've reached that point -- the last day of the calendar year and historically the lowest point of activity in the residential real estate market.


New listings in the last two weeks reached a low for the year of just 32 (14 single family homes and 18 condos).  A year ago the total was 48 with condos comprising most of the difference.

But to put those numbers in perspective, during the same two week period there were 103 listings withdrawn from the MLS (36 single family homes and 67 condos).  Bear in mind that most listings with a recent "withdrawn" status are still available for sale and we expect to see most of them come back to the market with an "active" status in January -- if the seller and listing agent wait thirty days the "new" listing will show a "0" days on market.

The number of new listings in the last two weeks that went into contract during the same period were 8 single family homes and 9 condos, roughly 50% of the new listings which suggests even in the peak holiday season there were still buyers out there ready/anxious to make an offer.


There were very few price reductions -- just 1 single family home and 3 condos which is almost identical to a year ago (1 and 6 respectively). 


If the last five years are any guide, our next report on January 14 will see a strong uptick in new listings.  (Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but we've seen this same cycle repeat over and over during all kinds of markets.

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

New Listing Watch -- hold on folks, we're almost at the bottom

Continuing true to form the number of new listings over the past two weeks is at its lowest for the year except for our next report December 31.  There were just 51 new single family home listings compared to 74 in the prior period and compared to 37 at the same time last year.

Similarly there were 41 new condo listings compared to 73 in the prior period.  However, last year at this time there were 61.



The number of new listings going into contract in the same two week period rose for both single family homes and condos compared to the prior period.  There were 14 single family homes vs 8 in the prior period and 12 a year ago.  There wee 6 condos vs 2 in the prior period and 15 a year ago.


The number of price reductions fell compared to the prior period and compared to the same period last year for both single family homes and condos.  There were 15 price reductions for single family homes vs 18 in the prior period and compared to just 1 in the same period last year.  For condos there were 19 price reductions compared to 33 in the prior period and 10 last year.

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

New Listing Watch -- typical end of year drop off

The number of new listings during the two weeks ending December 3rd (which included Thanksgiving) was down from the prior two week period (147 vs 189) and just about even with last year (147 vs 141).

Only 8 single family homes were newly listed in the last two weeks, the same as a year ago and down from 21 during the prior period.  New condo listings were down compared to the prior two weeks (73 vs 112) and down compared to a year ago (73 vs 81).



The percentage of new listings going into contract during the same two week period was down as expected.  For single family homes only 11% went into contract compared to 27% during the prior two week period and compared to 13% a year ago.  For condos, 3% went into contract compared to 13% during the prior period and compared to 21% a year ago.



Also as expected the number of price reductions was down compared to the prior two week period.  However, compared to last year the number of reductions was up for both single family homes (18 vs 5) and condos (33 vs 18).


If this year follows recent trends (and we don't see any reason it won't), new listings will continue to drop until the second week of the new year (see the first graph above).

As always, the full report is available on our web site:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics


Saturday, November 17, 2018

Statistics -- they never seem to tell the whole story.

Trulia just put out a report picked up by the San Francisco Chronicle on their sfgate.com site that carried the headline "15 SF neighborhoods where median price is under $1M".



(Click to go directly to the Trulia report where the map is interactive and shows not just San Francisco neighborhoods but all across the country).

I get that the point of the story is to show how unaffordable housing has become in our city.  But they're not comparing apples to apples. 

For example, the median selling price in 2018 for a home in the Tenderloin and Civic Center neighborhoods is $852,000.  Those neighborhoods are two of the fifteen that are still under one million.  Compare that to the neighborhoods of Potrero Hill and Dogpatch where the median sales price this year has been $1,210,000 and has been over a million for at least two years.

However, the median size of the properties selling in the Tenderloin and Civic Center is a one bedroom, one bath home in 745sf.  Compare that to the median in Potrero Hill and Dogpatch which is a two bedroom, two bath home in 1,020sf.  The cost per square foot in both areas is virtually identical ($1,144/sf in the Tenderloin and Civic Center vs $1,142 in Potrero Hill and Dogpatch).

That exposes one of the problems of lumping all residential sales into one median or average number, especially when you're trying to compare relatively small geographic areas such as city neighborhoods.

If you want a true comparison using these neighborhoods as an example, take a look at the median cost of a one bedroom, one bath condo.  In the Tenderloin and Civic Center area the median sales price for this year so far is, as noted above, $852,000.  The median sales price in Potrero Hill and Dogpatch is actually lower -- $807,000.  (It's also smaller -- 695sf vs 745sf).

Averages/medians don't mean a lot to a prospective buyer or seller if they lump all homes (studios and mansions alike) together in one number.  That's why our sales reports look at specific configurations of single family homes and condos which gives a truer picture.


Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Volume of Residential Sales UP

For the first ten months of the year the total number of residential sales of single family homes and condos/TICs has reached a three-year high of 4,382 units:


We typically see an average of over 400 sales each month for November and December.  If that holds for this year we should have an annual total of approx. 5,200 sales.  That would be the highest in the last four year.

Monthly sales totals this year have been higher than last year in 6 of 10 months.  Four of those came in February through May.

Stay tuned.