Monday, March 13, 2017

Market Watch - annual trends continue

New listings continue to increase as is typical this time of year.  During the last two weeks there were 291 new listings (129 single family homes and 162 condos) which compares 245 (93 and 162) in the prior two week period and 277 (117 and 160) for the same period a year ago.

There was a considerably higher percent of those new listings which went into contract during that last two weeks (11% of single family homes and 15% of condos) compared to a year ago (3.4% and 2.5%).

The number of price reductions are about the same (10 single family homes and 28 condos) as they were a year ago (12 and 28) as well as the previous two week period (8 and 27).

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Decline in Residential Sales?

Total residential sales (single family homes, condos, TICs, co-ops) in San Francisco as reported by the MLS declined in 2016, the third consecutive year of such declines.

The percentage reduction from the peak of the recovery in 2013 to 2016 is about 16%.  From the height of the real estate market just before the mortgage meltdown and subsequent recession the drop was more than 25%.

Since we haven't had a financial collapse recently we need to look for other reasons to understand the decline.  In no particular order here are some possible explanations:

  1. The pent up demand from the recession has worked its way through the market;
  2. There is a large number of new construction condos that have come on the market in the last several years.  (Most new construction condos do not appear in the MLS and are not included in the sales totals above).

Monday, February 27, 2017

Market Watch - condo price reductions

Price reductions on condo listings continues to be the story.  The number of new condo listings for the past two weeks is down somewhat compared to the same period a year ago (152 vs. 186 a  year ago) but even with fewer new listings the number of price reductions is up (27 compared to 22 a year ago).

The number of single family home new listings is down (93 compared to 121 a year ago).  Doing the math, total new listings for the last two weeks was 245 compared to 307 a year ago -- a drop of 20%.

The percentage of new listings going into contract with the two week window held steady at about 17% for single family homes and 16% for condos.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Value - Perception and Reality

Interesting study just published by Quicken Loans compares what people applying for refinance mortgages think their homes are worth compared to the value ultimately determined by an appraiser.  There's quite a difference based on geography:

Of course we're most family with the San Francisco market where the average 2-bedroom/2-bath condo sells for more than $1.2 million.  According to this study owners seeking to refinance that condo would estimate its value as about $25,000 less than the appraiser.

Frankly, I'm surprised there's such a LITTLE gap between the home owners estimate of value and the appraiser's calculation.  To me this suggests most owners seeking to refinance their mortgage are well informed about home values in their area.  San Francisco is almost obsessed with the cost of housing so maybe it's not surprising at all.

On the other hand, it's common to talk to prospective SELLERS who have an overly optimistic idea of the value of their property.  It would be interesting for someone to do a study of sellers initial perception/expectation of sales price vs. the actual sales price.

You can see the full Quicken report here.

Monday, February 13, 2017

New Listing Watch -- inventory climbs

On the standard roller coaster (or sine wave, if you prefer) that represents activity in the San Francisco real estate market, inventory and new listings have begun to increase right on schedule.

The number of new listings going into contract within the last two weeks has eased off for single family homes (15% vs 22% two weeks ago) but ticked up slightly for condos (15% vs 12%).

The number of price reductions has risen.  For single family homes there were 10 reductions compared to just 1 two weeks ago and compared to 10 a year ago.  For condos, there were 21 price reductions vs 12 two weeks ago and 11 for the same period a year ago.

Clients sometimes feel they're kind of like these guys.  They have a great view but feel somewhat precarious: