Monday, January 15, 2018

New Listing Report -- New Year; Same Pattern

We're two weeks into the new year and new listings continue to follow the trend seen year after year.  After virtually no new listings over the holidays, they have started to appear right on cue:

Compared to the prior two week period new listings of both single family homes and condos have increased five-fold (72 new single family home listings vs 15 during the previous period; 152 new condo listings vs 33).   However, compared to the same time period a year ago new listings are down almost 10%.  This doesn't bode well for hopes of easing the tight inventory situation we've had for the last couple of years.

The number of new listings going into contract in the most recent two weeks has doubled compared to the prior two week period but, as a percentage, has eased (17% of single family home and condo new listings).

The number of price reductions has remained steady (and low) at 3 single family home reductions and 8 condo price reductions.

If previous year patterns hold, we should expect to see an increase in price reductions as well as the usual increase in new listings but there is no sign that demand will decrease.

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Annual Residential Sales -- San Francisco and Marin

Both counties showed an uptick in residential sales for 2017 compared to 2016. 

It wasn't a huge increase (2.2% in San Francisco and 3.1% in Marin), but in each case it's the first year-over-year gain in sales in four years.

(Note -- these numbers come from the San Francisco MLS and BAREIS.  They generally do not contain numbers of new construction homes sold during the year.)

New Listing Watch -- as low as it goes

Given the time of year and the quirks of the calendar, as expected we've reached "low tide" for new listings.  For the two weeks ending 1/1/2018 the number of new listings was 48 compared to 98 in the prior two week period and compared to a high of 403 for the last two weeks in September.

The graph makes it obvious that this cycle repeats annually.  So in our next report we expect to see over 200 new listings.

With so few new listings coming on the market the percentage going into contract rose from 32% to 40% for single family homes and 25% to 46% for condos.

Price reductions virtually disappeared with only 1 single family home and 5 condos experiencing reductions.  

Overall, there was no significant difference between this year (end of 2017) and the same period last year (2016).

As usual, the full report can be found at our web site:  and click on Statistics.

Wednesday, December 20, 2017

New Listing Watch -- last for this year

We've about reached the low point of the year for listings. 

Following the usual pattern for this time of year the number of new listings for the past two weeks is at its lowest level except for the first week of January.  Total new listings of 98 is well below the previous two week period of 141 but slightly higher than last year at this time (80).

Conversely, the percentage of new listings going into contract during the same two week period is at its highest point except for the beginning of January (12 of the 37 single family homes or 32% and 15 of 61 condos or 25%).

The number of price reductions is down from the previous period (1 single family home and 10 condos) and down compared to the same period last year (11 single family homes and 20 condos).

Thursday, December 7, 2017

Unusual Number of Below Asking Sales?

Naturally we keep close track of listings and sales around our two office locations -- 1715 Polk St. and 2324 Market St. -- and we post a list of sales in our office windows each month.  Here are the posters:
Market St. neighborhoods
Polk St. neighborhoods

There was something unusual that caught my eye in the November sales lists.  The percentage of listings that sold for under asking in the neighborhoods around Polk St. was approximately double around the Market St. office:  38% vs 14%.  (11 of 29 for Polk St. vs 5 of 35 at Market St.

I haven't gone back to check (I will and I'll update this post) but this seems an unusual situation from two perspectives.  First, we're used to most listings selling for over asking -- this is a city-wide phenomenon.  And more locally, although the total number of sales around each office varies from month-to-month, there are usually only a small number that sell for under asking.  Having more than a third of listings sell for under asking around the Polk St. office is very unusual.