Monday, January 15, 2018

New Listing Report -- New Year; Same Pattern

We're two weeks into the new year and new listings continue to follow the trend seen year after year.  After virtually no new listings over the holidays, they have started to appear right on cue:

Compared to the prior two week period new listings of both single family homes and condos have increased five-fold (72 new single family home listings vs 15 during the previous period; 152 new condo listings vs 33).   However, compared to the same time period a year ago new listings are down almost 10%.  This doesn't bode well for hopes of easing the tight inventory situation we've had for the last couple of years.

The number of new listings going into contract in the most recent two weeks has doubled compared to the prior two week period but, as a percentage, has eased (17% of single family home and condo new listings).

The number of price reductions has remained steady (and low) at 3 single family home reductions and 8 condo price reductions.

If previous year patterns hold, we should expect to see an increase in price reductions as well as the usual increase in new listings but there is no sign that demand will decrease.

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Annual Residential Sales -- San Francisco and Marin

Both counties showed an uptick in residential sales for 2017 compared to 2016. 

It wasn't a huge increase (2.2% in San Francisco and 3.1% in Marin), but in each case it's the first year-over-year gain in sales in four years.

(Note -- these numbers come from the San Francisco MLS and BAREIS.  They generally do not contain numbers of new construction homes sold during the year.)

New Listing Watch -- as low as it goes

Given the time of year and the quirks of the calendar, as expected we've reached "low tide" for new listings.  For the two weeks ending 1/1/2018 the number of new listings was 48 compared to 98 in the prior two week period and compared to a high of 403 for the last two weeks in September.

The graph makes it obvious that this cycle repeats annually.  So in our next report we expect to see over 200 new listings.

With so few new listings coming on the market the percentage going into contract rose from 32% to 40% for single family homes and 25% to 46% for condos.

Price reductions virtually disappeared with only 1 single family home and 5 condos experiencing reductions.  

Overall, there was no significant difference between this year (end of 2017) and the same period last year (2016).

As usual, the full report can be found at our web site:  and click on Statistics.