New Listing Market Watch -- record numbers of new listings (and price reductions)

Just when you might have thought things might settle down now that we're well past the Labor Day holiday, the number of new listings in the past two weeks has increased to levels we haven't seen in at least seven years.  Total new listings in the last two weeks were 718 of which 259 were single family homes and 459 were condos.  

That total of new listings is 142% of the same period last year and 137% compared to the prior two week period.  

Price reductions have also jumped -- 53 for single family homes and 173 for condos.  

Those numbers are 171% of the number of price reductions for single family homes a year ago and 339% for condos.

You might conclude from these numbers that sales have taken a nose dive.  But one of our other reports shows that the number of closed sales so far for September have exceeded the number that closed for entire month of September last year (140 compared to 127).  Closed sales of condos so far this month are 187 compared to 191 for the entire month last year.  So it appears that the sales rate hasn't changed significantly compared to a year ago -- it's just inventory that has climbed so dramatically.

The full reports can be found at out web site:

www.boldsf.com/Statistics

August Number of Sales and Average Sales Prices

The August 2020 residential real estate market in San Francisco showed some remarkable resilience despite Covid-19.  The number of single family homes closed sales showed a 22% increase over August 2019.  And condos/TICs had a 13.6% increase.  

Changes in average selling prices were mixed for single family homes and down for condos among the five configurations we survey:

It's clear that the large numbers of available inventory since May has impacted the condo/TIC market.  The usual after Labor Day bump up in inventory did happen.  6% more single family homes were added compared to 2019 and condos/TICs jumped 22%.

As expected, with the huge influx of new inventory there has also been lots of price reductions not seen in recent memory.  In the last three 14-day periods there have been over 150 price reductions for condos/TICs in each period.  And, if history repeats itself, the next two 14-day reporting periods should produce similar numbers.

For a full review got to our web site:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics for a complete review of this month's reports.

New Listing Market Watch - WOW2

More listings, more price reductions.  The number of new listings in the last two weeks almost reached the record level of the prior two week period with 562 new listings (171 single family homes and 391 condos).  391 condo listings is the highest we've seen in a two week period since we've been keeping these records, eclipsing the previous record just set in the prior period of 365.

Compared to the same period a year ago total new residential listings are up 273% (562 vs 206).  There were 171 new listings of single family homes compared to 86 a year ago and 391 condos compared to 120 a year ago.

The number of price reductions has also increased compared to the prior two week period.  In the last two weeks there were 40 price reductions on single family homes vs. just 5 in the prior period.  There were 170 condo price reductions compared to 151 in the prior period.  Compared to a year ago there were just 9 single family home price reductions and just 17 for condos.

In summary, we have had five two-week period with over 300 new listings of condos and over 100 condo price reductions in the last four two-week periods. 

See the full report at our web site.

New Listing Market Watch - record number of new listings (condos) and price reductions (condos)

The headline is the story.  In the last two weeks there were 333 new listings of condos, a record for the seven years we've been keeping track.  (As a reminder, these are almost entirely resale properties as reported on the MLS.  New construction condos being sold by the developer are not included except for a handful that some developers put on the MLS essentially as advertising.  Also not included would be any off-market sales.)

In each of the last four 2-week periods (covering two months) we have had 300 or more new condo listings except for one period when there were "only" 277. 

The latest two week period of 333 compares to 310 the prior period and compares to 128 a year ago.

We had 187 new listings of single family homes compared to 160 the prior period and compared to 108 a year ago. 

So it won't come as much of a surprise that we also had 101 price reductions on condos during the past two weeks compared to 84 in the prior period and compared to 84 and 64 in the prior two periods.  A year ago we had 32.

There was also an increase in the number of price reductions of single family homes:  43 compared to 33 in the prior period and compared to 20 a year ago.

The number of properties that went into contract in the last two weeks held steady for both single family homes and condos.  29 single family homes went into contract compared to 32 in the prior period and compared to 20 a year ago.  36 condos compared to 36 in the prior period and compared to 32 a year ago. 

Expressed as a percentage, here's a graph showing number of properties going into contract as a percentage of the number of new listings.

And finally, just to drive the point home, here is a graph showing new listings in two week increments over the past five years.  It's a little busy but it's easy to see how out of the normal range condo listings have been recently.

New Listing market watch-- condos surge, price reductions increase

The number of new listings to come on the market in the last two weeks continues to increase compared to prior periods and compared to the same time period last year.

Here's another look comparing new listings this year compared to prior years.  It's apparent that the number of new listings of condos is (and has been for the past few weeks) substantially higher than any of the past 5 years.  New listings of single family homes has been mostly in the same range as prior years.

For the past six weeks (three two-week periods) new listings have significantly surpassed the same periods a year ago.  The majority of these new listings have been in the condo market.

There were 160 new listings of single family homes in the last two weeks compared to 156 in the prior period and compared to 127 during the same period a year ago.  There were 310 new listings of condos compared to 277 in the  prior period and compared to 196 a year ago.

Overall, total new listings (single family and condos) were up 46% compared to a year ago.

At the same time, price reductions are up.

The number of new listings in contract has remained steady.  During the past two weeks 32 single family homes went into contract compared to 31 in the prior period and compared to 21 a year ago.  For condos, 36 went into contract compared to 32 in the prior period and compared to 34 a year ago.

Sales Down (a lot)

It will come as a surprise to no one that residential sales in San Francisco are down.  But the size of the decline is unprecedented.

Sales during the first five months of the year are only 63% compared to the same period last year (1295 vs 2040).

That's only slightly better than the first five months of 2008 in the depths of the great recession (1295 vs 1265).

New Listing Market Watch - yes, the new normal

New listings during the past two weeks are down slightly from the prior two weeks and are less than half compared to a year ago:  134 vs 142 two weeks ago vs  282 a year ago.

This reduction shows most heavily in the condo market where condo listings are only one-third of a year ago (78 vs 165).  Condo listings were down almost 20% compared to the prior two week period (78 vs 94).

Single family homes fared somewhat better.  Compared to a year ago new listings were down just 12% (56 vs 117) and up slightly compared to the prior period (56 vs 48).

Price reductions were down during the past two weeks compared to the prior period (14 vs 22) and compared to the same as a year ago (14 vs 28).  Most of the drop in price reductions happened in the condo sector (7 vs 20 a year ago) and 7 vs 17 compared to the prior period.

It's worth noting that 73 listings came back on the market (BOM): 22 single family homes and 51 condos.  These are a combination of properties which had been placed in a "hold" status on the MLS (temporarily taken off the market) and properties that had been in contract but had failed to close so the property went back to an "active" status in the MLS.

For single family homes more than half (12 of 22) of the BOM listings were previously in contract which were cancelled.  For condos 25% of BOM listings were properties that had been in contract.  75% were listings which had been active but during the past two weeks had been put into "hold" status.

Finally, the number of properties that closed escrow since the first of April through April 19 was 118 (52 single family homes and 66 condos) which is 34% of closings during the same period last year which totaled 345 (140 single family homes and 205 condos).