New Listing Watch -- summer doldrums?

The number of new listings in the past two weeks (108 single family homes and 111 condos) was down noticeably compared to the prior two week period (91 single family homes and 152 condos) and down significantly compared to the same period last year (136 single family homes and 177 condos).

Also worthy of note, the number of new listings of condos and single family homes was approximately equal, something that hasn't happened since the beginning of 2016.

The percentage of those new listings in the last two weeks that went into contract was up compared to the prior period (9.3% vs 7.7% of single family homes and 17.1% vs 3.9% of condos).  Compared to a year ago the percentage of single family homes that went into contract in the same two week period remained virtually the same (9.3% vs 10.3%).  However, there was a significant jump in condos going into contract ( 17.1% vs 9.0%).

The number of price reductions compared to the prior period remained unchanged for single family homes (16) but dropped significantly for condos (16 vs 41).  Compared to the same period last year the number of price reductions dropped in both groups (16 vs 20 single family homes and 16 vs 39 condos).

New Listing Report - Summer Doldrums

New listings for the past two weeks jumped back up to more normal levels. There were 243 new listings (91 single family homes and 152 condos) compared to 158 (62 single family homes and 96 condos) during the previous two weeks and compared to 313 (136 single family homes and 177 condos) a year ago.

However, new listings are still running well below levels in 2016 and 2015.

The number of price reductions increased somewhat compared to the previous period (16 single family homes vs 14 and 41 condos vs 31).  Compared to a year ago price reductions are stable (57 vs 59 a year ago).

San Francisco 6 month review

Is the San Francisco real estate market one of the most expensive places to buy property?  After a review and analysis of the first six months of 2017 activity you can decide for yourself. 

First a few general data points.  42% of closed residential transactions were single family homes; 58% were condominiums/TICs/co-ops. 

Over 67% of residential sales have a sales price over $1million.  Available inventory is at a seven year low.  In 2010 at the beginning of July there were about 1,106 residential properties (single family homes and condos/TICs/co-ops) on the market.  At the beginning of July 2017 there were only 330.   When compared against typical monthly sales volume, this represents about three weeks of inventory for single family homes and four to seven weeks for condos.

When broken down into price ranges the single largest category of sales is the $1million to $1.5million range at 33%. Then comes the $800k to $999k range at 17.4% followed by $1.5million to $2million at 16.4%.  At the extremes of our market the $0 to $500k range accounts for only 2.2%.  The $2million to $2.5million range has 6.6% and the over $2.5million range accounts for 10.6%.

Looking at the five most popular residential configurations for more clarity, we track 3/2 and 2/1 (bedrooms/baths) single family homes, and in the condo category 1/1, 2/1 and 2/2 (bedrooms/baths). 

Property type**	# of sales	Average sale price (000s)	Low sale price (000s) ***	High sale price (000s)	Average days on market	Sale price premium*	Available inventory
2/1 single family	183	$1,067	$491	$2,513	42	121%	3 weeks
3/2 single family	189	$1,454	$659	$3,700	20	115%	3 weeks
1/1 condo	336	$791	$223	$1,570	34	105%	6 weeks
2/1 condo	151	$1,092	$342	$1,925	25	114%	4 weeks
2/2 condo	361	$1,342	$250	$3,055	33	106%	7  weeks

*Sale price divided by listing price.

** These five categories represent about 51% of the total residential sales as reported in the San Francisco Association of Realtors MLS.  Most new construction condo units being sold by the developer do not appear in the MLS. 

*** Most of the low sale prices were properties that have their original and resale prices restricted through various government programs designed to preserve affordable housing.

Current detailed reports can be found at www.boldsf.com/Statistics

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Overall Trends Affecting the San Francisco Housing Market

Interesting analysis that appeared recently in the Business Insider: "San Francisco Housing Market May Have Peaked".

While I disagree with the headline and the metric the author uses to arrive at his conclusion, some of the underlying employment and job growth numbers bear watching.

My biggest disagreement with his "housing market may have peaked" statement is the use of "Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index" which is based on mortgages that lenders sell to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  Those mortgages are capped at $636,000.  Assuming 20% down, that mortgage would support a sale of $795,000.

We know that average home prices in San Francisco are well above that figure.  Only 15% of sales this year have been under $799,000 (see our Sales by Price Range report).   So his conclusion is based on data that ignores 85% of the market.

Nevertheless, the slow down in job growth and labor force are worth keeping in mind.