Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Overall Trends Affecting the San Francisco Housing Market

Interesting analysis that appeared recently in the Business Insider: "San Francisco Housing Market May Have Peaked".

While I disagree with the headline and the metric the author uses to arrive at his conclusion, some of the underlying employment and job growth numbers bear watching.

My biggest disagreement with his "housing market may have peaked" statement is the use of "Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index" which is based on mortgages that lenders sell to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  Those mortgages are capped at $636,000.  Assuming 20% down, that mortgage would support a sale of $795,000.

We know that average home prices in San Francisco are well above that figure.  Only 15% of sales this year have been under $799,000 (see our Sales by Price Range report).   So his conclusion is based on data that ignores 85% of the market.

Nevertheless, the slow down in job growth and labor force are worth keeping in mind.

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