New Listing Watch - the year winds down

Seasons Greetings!  This will be the last "New Listing Watch" for 2016 and gives us an opportunity to look back over the year's changes, always looking for clues to what lies ahead.

As anticipated and similar to a year ago, new listings for the past two weeks have dropped off dramatically (80 vs 130 during the previous two week period).  For the same period last year there were 70 new listings.

The number of new listings that went into contract in the last two weeks is also up significantly with 18% of single family home new listings and 32% of condo new listings going into contract compared with 9% and 16% two weeks ago as buyers (and their agents) try to get sales nailed down before the holidays kick in.  We saw similar numbers a year ago.

Continuing the trend we've seen most of the year, the number of price reductions in the last two weeks is considerably higher than a year ago:  11 single family homes and 20 condos saw price reductions in the last two weeks compared to only 3 and 5 respectively during the same period last  year.

The graph above shows quite well that price reductions this year far exceeded those of last year.  For single family homes there have been 485 price reductions this year compared to just 314 in 2015 -- a 54% increase.  For condos the numbers are 928 this year vs 437 last year -- a 112% increase.  

The number of new listings this year is just about the same as 2015 -- 7,063 so far in 2016 vs 6,717 in 2015.

In our other reports where we report on the number of sales of various configurations of single family homes and condos in San Francisco, the result of this price reduction pressure can be seen especially in condos where two of the three condo configurations we track are showing lower average sales prices than the average 2015 sales price.  For example, the average sales price of a 2-bedroom/1-bath condo in 2015 was $1,024,000.  So far in 2016 the average price has been $994,000.  That's not a huge drop but it is significant since it's the first drop in average sales price after four years of consistent increases.

New Listing Market Watch - the same as last year but different

There are certain patterns in the San Francisco real estate market that are as predictable as rain in winter.

Here's what we wrote a year ago for the same two week period.  It perfectly describes the most recent two week period:

Our New Listing Watch survey done today and looking back at the last two weeks shows the number of new listing and the number of new listings going into contract during that period to be almost exactly the same as a year ago.  This demonstrates the seemingly inexorable seasonal variations.we see every year at this time:  the number of listings will continue to go down until after New Year's when they will quickly increase and reach their spring peak in June.

The number of new single family home listings during the two weeks ending December 5 is exactly the same as it was a year ago -- 56.  New condo listings were 74 compared to 75 a year ago.

There are two items of interest relating to condos.  First, the percentage of new listings that went into contract during the most recent two week period was significantly higher than for the same period last year:  16% vs. 3%.  

Second, although the number of price reductions during the most recent two week period is almost identical to a year ago, it's well below the average during the last six months: 19 compared to an average of 47 every two weeks since April.

Finally, based on the number of residential sales through the end of November, the total number of sales (as recorded in the SFMLS) will fall below last year.  This will be the third year in a row where annual sales are less than the previous year.  The last time we saw this trend was during the height of the recession (2007 through 2009).

New Listing Market Watch - heading to the holidays

Key takeaways from today's New Listing Market Watch (comparison are between the last two week period and the same period a year ago):

• approximately the same number of new listings during the last two weeks compared to the same period a year ago (177 vs 168).  If normal trends hold, we will see fewer and fewer new listings until early 2017;  
  
  
  
  
  
• a third fewer of the new listing single family homes went into contract (17 vs 10) compared to a year ago (13.3% vs 21.0%);

• although there were 17% more condo listings during the last two weeks than a year ago (102 vs 87), about the same percentage went into contract (20.7% vs 17.6%);
  

• there was a more than 50% increase in the number of condo price reductions (46 vs 30) and a 46% increase in price reductions for single family homes (19 vs 13).
  

The full report (and the other reports we publish) is available at our web site:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics

New Listing Market Watch

The number of new listing during the last two weeks is 17% higher than the same period a year ago (287 vs 245).  

The percentage of those new single family home listings going into contract jumped up to 12% (about the same as a year ago but significantly higher than the last four two-week periods.

The number of price reductions is about the same as it was a year ago for single family homes (26 vs 21) but quite a bit higher for condos (62 vs 47).

The market continues to follow the same seasonal cycle as in previous years so we should see a continuous drop off of new listings between now and the first week of January.  Although inventory will be reduced this time of year can provide good opportunities for buyers with less competition.

New Listing Market Watch

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

During the last two weeks we saw the drop off in new listings continue, as it always does this time of year.  There were 302 new listings of single family homes and condos during the last 14 days, down from 370 new listings for the prior period.  A year ago for the same period, there were 343 new listings.

The percentage of new listings that went into contract during the last two weeks was 7.9%, down slightly from the previous two-week period but considerably lower than the almost 15% during the same period a year ago.  For condos, the reverse is true:  during the last two weeks 14% went into contract compared to 9% the previous period and compared to 11% a year ago.

The jump in the percentage of condos going into contract is most likely due to the unusually high number of price reductions in condos during the last two weeks:  78 price reductions compared to 46 the previous period and 46 during the same period a year ago.  (Price reductions for single family homes was 28 compared to 25 during the previous period and 35 a year ago).

The number of condo price reductions is the highest we've seen in the three plus years we've been tracking these numbers.

So, as we've suggested previously, condo buyers should be taking advantage of the price reductions available as we approach the holiday season.