Thursday, December 8, 2016

New Listing Market Watch - the same as last year but different

There are certain patterns in the San Francisco real estate market that are as predictable as rain in winter.

Here's what we wrote a year ago for the same two week period.  It perfectly describes the most recent two week period:
Our New Listing Watch survey done today and looking back at the last two weeks shows the number of new listing and the number of new listings going into contract during that period to be almost exactly the same as a year ago.  This demonstrates the seemingly inexorable seasonal variations.we see every year at this time:  the number of listings will continue to go down until after New Year's when they will quickly increase and reach their spring peak in June.
The number of new single family home listings during the two weeks ending December 5 is exactly the same as it was a year ago -- 56.  New condo listings were 74 compared to 75 a year ago.

There are two items of interest relating to condos.  First, the percentage of new listings that went into contract during the most recent two week period was significantly higher than for the same period last year:  16% vs. 3%.  

Second, although the number of price reductions during the most recent two week period is almost identical to a year ago, it's well below the average during the last six months: 19 compared to an average of 47 every two weeks since April.

Finally, based on the number of residential sales through the end of November, the total number of sales (as recorded in the SFMLS) will fall below last year.  This will be the third year in a row where annual sales are less than the previous year.  The last time we saw this trend was during the height of the recession (2007 through 2009).

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