Market Summary

The San Francisco residential real estate market remains strong.  Following up on 2021 where total residential sales were the best since 2004.  7304 (2021) vs 7403 (2004). 

After a rather soft January, February saw a resumption in sales of single family homes with very low available inventory, strong demand, usually multiple offers, and average DOM of 14 days and premium (selling price divided by list price) of 126%.  Average selling price for 2/1 and 3/2 single family homes in February were $1.395 million and $1.8 million respectively.

Here's a graph showing the number of San Francisco residential sales in the last four years broken down into the first two months of the year and the last 10 months.

What is somewhat unexpected was the condo/TIC segment of our market where inventory came back very strong with almost 2 months of supply.  Demand has also increased as have month-to-month increases in selling prices as seen in the three configurations we survey (1 bedroom/1 bath; 2 bedroom/1 bath; 2 bedroom/2 bath).  

Of special note are 2/2 condos which are setting historic highs for average selling prices.  1/1 condos also saw an increase in February to $828k surpassing last year’s average selling price of $823k but lagging behind $871k set in 2019.

Other items of note:  

The number of pending* sales of single family homes is more than the the number of currently active inventory (222 vs 207).

There are 280 condos/TICs pending vs 659 active.

Comparing the last 14 days reporting period to the same time last year, both single family homes and condos/TICs show a 10% increase in new listings.

March closed sales for 2021 at 257 single family homes and 440 condos/TICs for a total of 697.  Closed sales for this March will be predictive for the remainder of 2022.

New Listing Market Watch and 3-county report

 Our bi-weekly New Listing report shows a further decline in new listings over the past two weeks compared to the previous two week period.  A decline in new listings is typical (and highly predictable) for this time of year and will continue until after New Years if this this year follows.

New single family home listings were 140 compared to 166 in the prior two week period.  Condos were 199 compared to 259 in the prior period.  Compared to a year ago new listings of single family homes was 140 in the last two weeks compared to 161 a year ago.  For condos the 199 new listings this year compares to 227 a year ago.

On our 3-County report the same drop in active listings can be seen.  In San Francisco the total number of active, in contract, and pending listings is down 90 compared to a week ago (1,801 compared to 1,891).  A similar decline can be seen in the numbers for Marin and Sonoma counties as well.

The full reports can be seen at our web site.

 Masks are still required in San Francisco for all showings -- open house, brokers tour, private showings.

Members:   The City and County of San Francisco is dropping the indoor mask mandate this Friday, October 15, but only for spaces/building where a discrete cohort of fully vaccinated individuals meet regularly, such as an office, religious gathering, or college classroom.   San Francisco law will still require masks for all property showings — open house, private showings, broker tour, inspections, etc.   To qualify for the "mandate removal", the space in question must only have fully vaccinated individuals, and those individuals must see each other on a regular basis, and the space should have relatively few visitors.   The indoor masking mandate is still explicitly in effect for all settings that would be accessed by the wider public, in particular retail stores and shared indoor areas with visitors (lobbies, restrooms, building elevators, etc.).   Under the San Francisco Department of Public Health's guidelines, open houses/real estate showings still qualify for the indoor masking mandate because it is an indoor space that receives many visitors or people from different workspaces/households. However, the indoor masking mandate would be lifted for most brokerage offices.   It should be noted that this rule change is specific to San Francisco, due to SF's high vaccination rate and low infection spread. Other counties are implementing separate/different indoor masking mandates.   Please click the button below for the news release from the Mayor's Office and DPH with more information about the indoor mask requirement.   Contact governmentaffairs@sfrealtors.com with any questions.   CLICK HERE FOR THE MAYOR'S NEWS RELEASE       ‌ ‌ ‌ Representing real estate professionals and promoting responsible business practices and homeownership for more than 100 years. VISIT OUR WEBSITE

A look back over the last 3 quarters

 Our San Francisco residential real estate market for the first three quarters of 2021, in spite of all the COVID issues, is having one of the best years in the last 10 for total sales.  Reviewing the variety of reports we do there are a few items that stand out.

For single family homes 53% (1,130 units) of closed sales in the first three quarters had average prices between $1 and $2 million.  Another 15% (322 homes) closed between $2 and $2.5 million.  Followed closely by 275 homes (13%) between $2.5 and $3 million.

Similarly, in the first three quarters of 2021 52% of condos/TICs sales (1,670 units) were between $1 and $2 million.  The next largest group, 18% (582 units) was between $800k and $999k.  16% (536 units) closed between $500k to $799k.

Inventory continues to be plentiful for condos/TICs.  As of 10/10/2021 there was approx. 3.8 months of available inventory (911 units) with an additional 105 in contract and 320 units pending.

It’s a more mixed message for single family homes where there were 325 active listings with 35 in contract and 285 currently pending.  This represents about 1.6 weeks of inventory.  For the two configurations that we track (2 bedroom, 1 bath and 3 bedrooms, 2 baths) there is 4 weeks and 5 weeks of inventory.

Average selling prices for 2/1 and 3/2 single family homes continue at record highs with 2/1 homes averaging $1.33 million and 3/2 averaging $1.75 million.

Annual average selling prices for the three configurations of condos/tics we track (1/1, 2/1 and 2/2) are $825k, $1.14 million and $1.41 million respectively.  These averages are down 5%, 3% and 4% compared to previous highs reached in 2019.

As might be expected, with almost 3.8 months of inventory, these average selling prices will be constrained through the end of the year. 

By the way, TICs as a percentage of condo/TICs sales is now about 6% -- the lowest percentage since 2002.  In most years TICs make up 8-10% of the combined condo/TIC market.  This reduction in market share seems to be mostly the result of the large influx of condo inventory in the past 2-3 years.

Big Uptick in New Listings

In a “normal” year the 14-day period following Labor Day brings one of the largest increases of new inventory coming onto the San Francisco residential real estate market.  This year was no exception with 281 single family homes and a whopping 536 condos/TICs having been added.

 

Compared to the previous 14-day reporting period there were 147 single family home and 187 condos/TICs added.  That’s a 91% increase in single family homes and 187% increase for condos/TICs. 

For a similar 14-day period in 2020 there were 250 single family homes and 459 condos/TICs that were added.  That is an 8% increase for single family homes and 17% increase for condos/TICs.

The influx of new inventory into our market will provide buyers with more opportunities with about 1.6 months of available inventory for single family homes and 3.6 months of inventory for condos/TICs.  And with such a large number of available listings it has also brought 30 price reductions in single family homes and 78 price reductions in condos/TICs.

If the pace of sales holds we are on track to have the largest number of closed sales since 2013.

The full report can be found on our web site.