New Listing Market Watch - signs of change

New listings in the last two weeks are lower than the previous period but higher than a year ago and the percentage of new listings going into contract in the same two weeks has fallen compared to the previous period and compared to a year ago.  But the most notable item that stands out is the number of price reductions, particularly in the condo market.

Compared to the previous period price reductions of single family homes rose from 27 to 37.  Price reductions of condos rose by 75% from 46 to 81.  (As a reminder, condos represented in this report are those listed in the MLS and do not include the majority of new construction condos being sold directly by the developer.  However, we have seen asking prices for new construction condos drop in some developments and often being accompanied by incentives to both buyer and buyer's agent).

Compared to a  year ago price reductions have doubled for single family homes (18 vs 37) and increased by 65% (49 vs 81).

As mentioned above, new listings of both single family homes and condos have fallen compared to the prior two week period (154 vs 189 for single family homes and 229 vs 272 for condos).  Although this has been the pattern in previous years, the number of new listings of condos is noticeably higher than a year ago (229 vs 189).

The number of new listings that went into contract in the most recent two week period has fallen by half compared to the prior period and compared to a year ago.  For single family homes 9.7% went into contract compared to 11.6% in the prior period and compared to 12.6% a year ago.  For condos, 5.2% went into contract compared to 9.6% during the prior period and 11.6% a year ago. 5.2% is the lowest percentage of condos going into contract in the same two week period in the last 12 months.

Interest Rates Heading Higher

(From Business Insider)

Notice the similarity to the 30-year mortgage interest rates:

Here's a graph with both:

This is a reasonable predictor of mortgage interest rates.

And despite the somewhat hysterical headline and the underlying story which is discussing stock/equity markets, this trend will have effects on the overall economy.

More Real Estate Brokerage Consolidation

Just a month ago we got the news that Compass was gobbling up Pacific Union and Paragon brokerages, we've just realized that Hill & Co is being acquired by Alain Pinel.

The difference between the two acquisitions seems to boil down to Hill management wanting to retain its "family owned" reputation.  According to its president, Jay Costello, Hill had been approached by Compass but turned them down.  Alain Pinel has over 800 agents compared to Hill's 80.  However, a check of the state Department of Real Estate web site shows just 38 Hill agents and brokers.

The full story and perspective is available at the San Francisco Business Times.

New Listing Watch -- the fall season continues

New listings for condos and single family homes during the last two weeks were up just 4% from the previous two week period (461 vs 444).  Compared to the same period a year ago new listings are up 14% (461 vs 403).

The majority of new listings were condos (272 vs 252 in the prior two week period and vs 241 a year ago).  Single family homes accounted for 189 new listings compared to 192 in the prior two week period and compared to 162 a year ago.

The percentage of new single family home listings that went into contract during the same two week period jumped up to 11.6% compared to 8.9% during the prior period and compared to 8.6% a year ago.  The percentage of condos that went into contract stayed the same compared to the prior period (9.6% vs 9.5%) but was higher than a year ago (9.6% vs 7.5%).  For both single family homes and condos the percentage going into contract within the same two week period is still down compared to where we were in the period prior to Labor Day.

There was a significant jump in price reductions for both single family homes and condos.  For this period there were 27 price reductions for single family homes compared to just 4 in the prior period and compared to 17 a year ago.  The numbers for condos was 46 for this period compared to 34 for the prior period and compared to 34 a year ago.

The full report can be found at our web site:
www.boldsf.com
click on statistics.

Worth Remembering

Sometimes we forget to recommend the simplest things to our sellers that will help attract potential buyers.  I wouldn't call them "slip-ups" -- if anything they are tips we agents need to give to our sellers:
(click image to enlarge)