Signs of Typical Fall Inventory Uptick

 Heading into the Labor Day weekend we're seeing signs of the usual increase in inventory typical in early September. 

As you can see from this overly busy graphic, the number of active listings increases in September, October and early November every year regardless of recession or pandemic. (These numbers are calculated in the first week of each month.  When Labor day falls in the latter part of the first week of September the increase in listings doesn't show up until the early October figure).

The other indication is the increase in "Coming Soon" listings in the MLS.  In San Francisco the number of "coming soon" listings has increased from 170 to 196 in just seven days.  Most of the "coming soon" listings are condos -- 136 compared to 120 a week ago.  "Coming soon" single family home listings increased to 60 compared to 50 a week ago.

Active Listing Down -- Closed Sales Up

 Active listings as of 8/2/21 in San Francisco dropped approximately 9% compared to the prior week (900 compared to 957).  The percentage drop was the same for both single family homes (257 compared to 287) and condos (643 compared to 670).

The number of closed sales of single family homes in July was approximately the same as July 2020 (235 vs 237).  Condos was a different story with 330 closed sales compared to 274 a year ago -- a 20% increase.

The full report can be found in the "3 County Comparison Report" on our website which includes data for San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma counties:

http://www.boldsf.com/Statistics%20test/Statistics.html

Market Recap -- June sales

 In the first six months of 2021 the San Francisco residential real estate market has performed outstandingly and with some record setting.  There have been 3,677 closed sales, of which 1,399 were single-family homes and 2,278 were condos/TICs.  2013 was the last year where total residential closed sales established the previous high of 2,988 with 1,355 single-family homes and 1,633 condos/TICs (all numbers are for the first six months of the year).

Overall total closed sales for the first two quarters of this year are about 23% higher than in 2013.  Single-family homes increased about 3% and condos/TICs had a whopping increase of 39%.

It should be noted that San Francisco has built quite a few mid- and hi-rise condo buildings since 2013 and, as our monthly statistics derive from our MLS which historically does not include new construction units, these numbers represent largely resales not initial sales of new construction units.

Our single-family home market continues to set historic high average selling price almost monthly for homes priced below $3.5 million.  In June 2/1 and 3/2 homes had average selling prices of $1.511 million and $1.864 million respectively with days-on-market of 17 and 11 days and premiums (selling price divided by asking price) 122% each.

Based on the number of sales, the star performer of the year so far has been the condo segment.  That market has had approximately 3 months of available inventory with potential buyers having plenty of choices.  As would be expected average selling prices saw some declines.  For 1/1 (bedroom/baths), 2/1 and 2/2 configuration condos which we survey monthly June average selling prices were $826k, $1.203 million, and $1.390 million respectively.  When compared to historic high prices (established in 2019) which were $871k, $1.174 million and $1.463 million, there was a 5% decline, a 2% increase and 5% decline respectively for those three configurations.

It appears the market will remain strong for the rest of 2021.  Rising interest rates are likely to affect the sub $1million market rather quickly.  Rising interest rates are less likely to affect single-family home prices since only a small percentage (6%) of single-family homes sell for under $1 million in the San Francisco market. 

We also note that 53% of all single-family home sales closed between $1million and $2.5 million.  For condos/TICs 51% of closed sales were in that same price range.

Low Inventory of single family homes

There’s barely a month of inventory of single family homes in both San Francisco and Marin.  Sonoma is doing better with nearly 2 months of inventory.  San Francisco and Sonoma have 64 and 51 single family homes “coming soon”.  Marin has 11.

Marin Fundamentals (May compared to April)

(click on heading to see the full report)

Number of sales in May was down 8% for single family homes and 12% for condos.

Average selling prices were down 7% and condos were up 3%.

Active listings are up 35% for single family homes and 7% for condos.

 

San Francisco Fundamentals (May compared to  April)

(click on heading to see the full report)

Number of sales of single family homes was down 11% but basically unchanged for condos.

Average selling prices were up 4% for single family homes and up 2% for condos.

Active listings are up 10% for single family homes and 2% for condos.

Market so far in 2021`

Based on the Total Number of Closed Sales through May 31^st, the San Francisco residential real estate market remains on track to be among the best in the last 10 years.

By way of historical perspective, in 2013 closed sales for single family home through May 31^st totaled 1,052 and condos/TICs added an additional 1,350.  This year through the end of May single family home sales totaled 1,090 (a 4% increase over 8 years) and condos/TICs show closed sales of 1,827 (an increase of approx. 35%).

Available inventory of single-family homes continues to be between 2 and 4 weeks for homes under $3 million.  Available inventory for homes priced above $3 million is running between 2 and 4 months.

Inventory of condos priced below $2.5 million is between 2.5 and 3 months. Condos priced above $2.5 million inventory is 5+ months.

Based on average selling prices for single-family homes that we survey monthly (2 bedroom, 1 bath homes and 3 bedroom, 2 bath homes) continue to set historic highs almost every month.  For condos/TICs average selling prices have moderated for the three configurations we survey (1 bed/1 bath, 2 bed/1 bath, and 2 bed/2 bath).  Prior historic highs were all established in 2019. 

1 bed/1 bath prior historic average selling price was $871k.  Through May 31^st it is now $814k (a 7% reduction).

2 bed/1 bath prior historic average selling price was $1,174k.  Through May 31st it is now $1,129k (a 4% reduction).

2 bed/2 bath prior historic average selling price was $1,463kk.  Through May 31st it is now $1,386k (a 5% reduction).