New Listing Market Watch

Inventory remains consistent (for the most part) compared to the same two week period last year - 277 this year vs 289 last year.

However, there's a marked reduction in the number of new listings going into contract within two weeks.  During the previous two weeks only four single family homes and four condos went into contract,  During the same period last year 23 single family homes and 33 condos went into contract.

Does this indicate a slowdown?  Stay tuned ...

Most Expensive North American Housing Markets

Although their survey only covers cities with more than a half million population, RIS Media has put together a list that includes a few surprises:

Four of the top ten markets are in California (San Francisco, San Jose, LA, and San Diego).  And 7 of the top 15 (almost half the list) are on the west coast of North America.

San Francisco and Manhattan are neck-and-neck.

Two Canadian cities (Vancouver and Toronto) made the list.

New Listing Market Watch - More Condos

Another two weeks and more of the same.  New listings during the last two weeks matched closely with the same period a year ago -- 276 new listings last year and 307 this year, an increase of about 11%.

Virtually all of the increase came in the form of condos.  Last  year there were 159 new condo listings; this year there were 186.

After four weeks of relatively slow sales of single family homes, in this latest two week period almost 12% of them went into contract during the same period.  The rate of sales on condos remained steady at 14.5% which is similar to the rate for the last six weeks.

New Listing Market Watch - Signs of a cooling market?

New listings for the past two weeks continue in virtual lockstep with the same period a year ago.  New listings of single family homes were down 8% compared to last year (108 vs. 117).  New listings for condos was up by 1 from 146 a year ago vs. 147 during the last two weeks this year.

The real difference this year seems to be a much lower percentage of listings going into contract within the first two weeks.  For the period ending 2/15/16 only 4.6% of new single family homes listing went into contract within that same two week period compared to over 17% for the same period last year.  Similarly with condos, only 14% vs. 22% last year.

Is the market cooling?

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics"

That line often used by Mark Twain came to mind as I was looking at the web site of one of the more prominent brokers in town today.  In it they have a section called Market Conditions where they break down certain residential real estate statistics by MLS district and subdistrict.

Just like almost everyone I know, I always look at my neighborhood.

It shows 30 properties "for sale right now" and an average days on market of 96.

Here's what our MLS says:

It's a little hard to read -- you can click on it to enlarge.  It says there are a total of 12 properties for sale (1 single family home and 11 condos/TICs).  Average days on market is 30 for the condos and 3 for the single family home.

Their "average days on market", or DOM, is way off the mark at 96.  If that number refers to the currently active listings, the MLS says the average days on market is 30.  If it refers to previous sales, the average DOM for sales during the two month period 11/15/15 through 1/15/16 is 44.

Sometimes "active" listings are calculated to include those already in contract but with contingencies.  Even if you include those properties, the number of active listings on Potrero Hill is only 21.  But, for all practical purposes those additional 9 properties are not available for purchase.

We spend a lot of time surveying and reporting sales numbers for the San Francisco residential real estate market and there are a lot of other sources that report mostly sales data.  As this example shows, it's easy to get confused over apparently conflicting reports.  What's often missing is context.

Reports should always explain exactly where (and when) the data comes from and what it includes. In the case of this broker, their "active" data is four or five days old.  Our reports also try to compare apples to apples.  Reporting a general "average" sales price by lumping together condos and single family homes, studios and mansions, doesn't serve any real purpose since no buyer is looking for an average house.  Buyers are looking for specific configurations so knowing the average sales price that includes everything isn't terribly useful.  Similarly for the seller of, for example, a three bedroom single family home, a general average doesn't provide much guidance in setting their asking price.