New Listing Market Watch - winding down summer

We continue to follow the well-established summer pattern of low inventory in the July/August summer months.  In the last two weeks only 208 new listings came on the market -- the lowest number since the Christmas/New Year holiday period.  A year ago it was an almost identical 209 new listings for the same period. 

In our report that will be posted on September 9th (a week after Labor Day) we expect to see the usual jump in new listings.  What seems a little different this year is that demand is stronger than last year for single family homes which shows up in the days-on-market figures which are slightly down this year compared to last.  For July average DOM for single family homes was 21 compared to 23 the year before.

The number of price reductions is down significantly compared to a year ago.  Single family homes saw only 9 price reductions in the last two weeks compared to 13 in the same period last year.  SImilarly price reductions for condos was 17 this year vs 20 last year.

End of Summer State of the Market

Summer usually has some of lowest inventory levels of the year and 2019 is no exception.  New listings of single family homes were down slightly but the number of condos/TICs were up slightly compared to a year ago. 

Single Family Homes:

Average selling prices for single family homes continue to be a historic highs.  In July, the average days on market (DOM) for 2bed/1bath and 3/2 single family homes were 17 and 22 respectively and premiums (selling price divided by listing price) were 118% and 122% respectively.

As of 8/13/19 thee is a 2-week supply of 2/1 and a 3-week supply of 3/2 single family homes. 

Condos:

Condos, like single family homes, are also selling at historic high prices.  The three configurations we track (1/1, 2/1 and 2/2) average selling prices in July were $865k, $1,201K and $1,449k respectively. 

DOM were 36 days, 21 days and 36 days.  Premiums were 111%, 117% and 104%.

Inventory is more plentiful:  1/1 inventory is 6 weeks, 2/1 inventory is 4 weeks and 2/2 inventory is 8 weeks.

Our reports can be found at www.boldsf.com/Statistics

New Listing Market Watch -- price reductions

As is typical this time of year the total number of new listings (single family homes, condos/tics/co-ops) in the last two weeks declined and are at lower levels than a year ago by about 2%.

New listings of single family homes are down by 21 (18%); condos actually had 15 more new listings than last year at this time (12%).

The number of new listings that went into contract over the past two weeks has increased compared to the previous period and compared to a year ago.  There were 17 single family homes (17.9%) and 21 condos (14.7%).

The number of price reductions of single family homes is up compared to the prior period and compared to a year ago (20 vs 17 in the prior period and 16 a year ago).  There were 25 price reductions of condos compared to the prior period of 28 and 16 a year ago.

With this light inventory we have compiled a list of single family homes and condos where the asking price has been reduced within the last 14 days.

View Listings
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WRONG: "Bay Area home sales fell sharply in June — prices mostly fell, too"

It's been widely reported that the number of home sales in the Bay area "fell sharply" in June and "prices mostly fell too". That's from a headline in the Chronicle.  Just this week there was a similar story in the Mercury News.

The Mercury News story  omits San Francisco data and only covers Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa and San Mateo counties.  The Chronicle story covers all nine Bay area counties.

My comments here relate to the Chronicle story.  First, the Chronicle's own graphic shows median prices are up month over month (June compared to May) in seven of the nine counties.  On a year over year comparison five of the nine counties show an increase in medial sales prices and two counties show no change.  How does this support the idea that "prices mostly fell too"?  It obviously doesn't.

It's true that if you average the median sales price of all nine counties there is a slight decline on a month over month basis but that attributable entirely to one county (San Mateo).  And the idea of averaging selling prices over such a wide geographic area is not very useful if you're trying to get a sense of the market.

Or look at it this way:  in June 6124 homes were sold in counties where the median sales price was up from the previous month.  Only 1233 were sold in the two counties that showed a decline in median sales price.  Again, how does that support the idea that "prices mostly fell"?

Specifically for San Francisco, it's true that the number of sales in June declined compared to May -- but that's been true seven out of the last thirteen years.  If you look at the month-by-month sales profile in San Francisco, June is the beginning of the summer doldrums that lasts until Labor day.  This is a repeating pattern that has been true through boom and bust economies.

The following graphic shows total sales for the first and second half of each year.  The first half of 2019 is well within the normal range of sales.

Hysterical headlines notwithstanding, for the five categories of condos and single family homes that we track on a monthly basis the average sales price for four out of five of those categories are at all all time highs.

New Listing Market Watch - mid July doldrums?

No.  While it may be true that the number of new listings tends to slow down between Independence Day and Labor Day there is still plenty of activity.  In the last two weeks 241 new residential listings came on the market compared to 257 in the same period in 2018.  That's down 6%.  You can see the breakdown between single family homes and condos here:

20 of those new listings went into contract.

The number of price reductions is increasing:  17 single family homes and 28 condos.  For the same period last year the figures were 15 and 23.

These statistics represent opportunities for buyers but perhaps not quite as fierce as peak times (spring and early fall).

And if all of this leaves you uneasy, contemplate the garden for a while.