Has sanity returned to the San Francisco residential real estate marketplace?

 

September ends a very slow third quarter for closed residential sales.  There were 1,815 single family homes that closed and 2,466 condos/TICs.  Compared to the third quarter of 2021 single family home closed sales declined 15%, condos/TICs declined 25% and total combined residential sales declined 21%.

Inventory continues to build following the Labor Day holiday weekend as it does most years.  Single family homes have an inventory of about two months supply and condos/TICs show an almost three month supply.  Of the 432 currently active single family homes 138 of them, almost 32%, are priced at or above $2.5 million.

Average selling prices continue to moderate downward.  While single family homes remain at historic highs they have been declining in recent months.  Days on market are increasing and overbidding is declining.  All of which means lower average selling prices.  And, as we approach the 7% mortgage interest rate level, this will probably dampen sales even further.

Active buyers are finding plenty of available inventory.  Competition has dwindled and, in many cases, disappeared.  Negotiating is back on the table.  DOM continue to increase.  While some overbidding continues in a few “pockets of popularity”, offer dates have largely disappeared and the few we’ve seen have not succeeded in generating accepted offers.

Post Labor Day

 The post Labor Day residential real estate market opened with a bang.  In the past seven days 398 new homes were added to our inventory – 126 single family homes and 272 condos/TICs.  Including these new additions, single family homes now represent about 1.5 months of available inventory and condos/TICs  2.5 months. 

It appears closed sales are still lagging behind the first eight months of 2021 sales by almost 20%.  Single family homes are 14% behind and condos/TICs are behind 24% compared to the same eight month period last year.

Average selling prices remain at historic highs for single family homes priced under $2.75 million.  However the overall market is showing signs of average sales prices moderating downward.  In particular, condos/TICs have declined 4-6% compared to the historic highs reached in 2019 for the three configurations we survey.

When you factor in another fed rate increase of as much as 100 basis points coming soon, interest rates could reach the 6% range going into the fourth quarter.  As our old broker used to say “the market is the market” – you either learn how to work it to your client’s advantage or complain to anyone who will listen how bad it is.

Taking Stock of the Post Labor Day Market

 The San Francisco residential real estate market remains quite active even though new inventory coming onto the market has slowed to numbers we usually don’t see until December.  There remains about four weeks of available single family home inventory as of 9/5/22 and condos/TIC inventory about eight weeks.  In addition there are 84 single family homes and 154 condos/TICs in the “coming soon” category.

Comparing closed sales for the first eight months of this year vs 2021 single family homes have declined by 14% and condos/TICs declined by 24%.  Overall residential sales declined by 20%.

Historic high average selling prices remain for single family homes priced below $2.75 million.  However, the condos/TICs segment has moderated.  For 1/1, 2/1 and 2/2 configurations* we survey each remains off their historic highs established in 2019.  1/1’s have gone from $871k to $824k,  2/1’s from $1,174k to $1,168k, and 2/2's from $1,463k to $1,429k (-5.4%, -0.6%. and -2.3% respectively).

This new market has much to offer for buyers and sellers.  Inventory remains relatively stable and consistent – 1 month for single family homes and 2 months for condos/TICs.  Rising interest rates typically means less competition and generally selling prices closer to list prices with offers that contain more conditions and more back and forth negotiations.

Also of note, in the last two months there has been an unusually large number of listings that have been withdrawn particularly in the $1million-$1.5million price range.

 

*bedrooms/baths

First six months 2022 vs 2021

The number of San Francisco residential closed sales, including single family homes and condos/TICs, for the first six months of 2022 are down 17% compared to the first six months of last year (2021).  Single family homes are down by 11% and condos/TICs are down by 22%

Reviewing the five configurations we survey monthly 2/1 (bedrooms/bathrooms) and 3/2 single family homes had an increase of 7% for 2/1s and a 4% decrease.  Of the 1/1, 2/1 and 2/2 condos/TICs it’s quite a different story.  1/1s are down 23%, 2/1s are down 36% and 2/2s are down 16%.

At the same time the average selling price shows an increase in all five categories we survey.  2/1 single family homes are up 6%, 3/2 single family homes are up 10%.  For all single family homes regardless of configuration that closed in the first six months are up 1% on average.  Condos/TICs also saw increases in average selling prices for every configuration we survey, 1/1, 2/1 and 2/2 increased by 2%, 2% and 5% respectively.

Inventory continues to increase as is normal for this time of year.  There is approximately 5 weeks of single family homes currently available and 11 weeks for condos/TICs. 

These statistics are based on MLS listings.  New construction units are generally not included (except for sample units) so available inventory of condos is more likely to be in the 3-4 month range.

In our 24 years of keeping stats on SF real estate there has never been this high a number of available condo/TIC units.

Reviewing First Five Months of 2022

The number of San Francisco residential closed sales through May 31 of this year shows a decline of 15% with single family homes down 7% and condos/TICs down 19% when compared to the first five months 2021.  (2021 was the best year for total sales since 2004).

Demand for single family homes remains strong and average selling prices remain at historic highs for 2bed/1bath and 3bed/2bath configurations we survey monthly.  In the last three months each configuration has shown a decline in the average selling prices – 2/1s by 5% and 3/2s by 12%.

For the three configurations we survey of condos/TICs, 1/1s are down 9%, 2/1s down 7% and 2/2s down 9% over the last three months.

As of 6/6/22 there is approx. 6 weeks of available inventory for all single family homes and about 11 weeks for all condos/TICs.

Much of the decline in selling prices could be anticipated given the number of available properties.  For example, our condo/TIC inventory has reached about 11 weeks which does not include new construction inventory which is not usually listed in the MLS.

However, average sales prices for single family homes become less predictable even as the inventory increases.  It could be the decline in average selling prices may be the result of rising interest rates or, perhaps, buyers’ agents are advising against making aggressive offers.

34% of single family homes that closed this year through 5/31/22 sold at or above $2.5 million.  4% closed at or below $1 million.  15% of the condo/TICs closed at or above $2 million while 35% closed at or below $1 million.