Foreclosures Decline Further

In what is probably the ultimate acknowledgement that the foreclosure crisis is largely behind us, the web site ForeclosureRadar has changed its name to PropertyRadar.

Their latest report of foreclosure filings in San Francisco for emphasis:

This has been a trend in San Francisco for some months now.  But, statewide, the same thing is happening:

In April distressed-property sales fell 39.4 percent year-over-year.  In contrast, non-distressed sales increased by 36.6 percent year-over-year.  While the year-over-year increase in April non-distressed sales was impressive, the gain was not enough to push overall market activity higher.  Distressed sales have been declining steadily as a percentage of total sales since the beginning of 2012.  In January 2012 distressed sales were 61.6 percent of total sales and ended the year at 44.8 percent of sales.  In April 2013, distressed sales were 34.2 percent of total sales, down from 36.6 percent in March.   Over the same time period, non-distressed sales started 2012 at 38.4 percent of total sales and ended the year at 55.2 percent of total sales.  In April 2013, non-distressed sales were 65.8 percent of total sales, up from 63.4 percent in March.

Continuing Decline in "Distressed" Property Sales

Continuing and widening a trend we've been seeing for some time now in San Francisco, ForeclosureRadar is reporting the lowest number of sales of distressed properties (i.e. REO and short sales) in California since 2008.

The caption below the graphic indicates some confusion on their part as to the cause.  At least here in San Francisco it's pretty simple:  

(low inventory) + (high demand) + (lowest unemployment rate since 2008) = rising sales prices, rising property values, and more people able to keep up with their mortgage payments.

Foreclosures Continue Downward Trend

The graphs tell the story (from ForeclosureRadar.com):

Notices of Default, the first step in the foreclosure process, are down:

Foreclosure Filings: California > San Francisco County > San Francisco

Foreclosure inventories are down:

Foreclosure Inventories: California > San Francisco County > San Francisco

The same is largely true for most of the surrounding counties, although Marin and San Mateo counties saw an uptick in notices of default in the last reporting period.

Foreclosures Sharply Down

Notices of Default, the first step in the foreclosure process, are down sharply the last two months:

CA - Foreclosure Filings

For San Francisco county the trend is the same:

06075 - Foreclosure Filings

Similar declines in Notice of Default filings can be seen in all of the immediately surrounding counties (Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda and San Mateo) at the Foreclosure Radar site.

Department of Good News

A couple of recent reports are bolstering the anecdotal stories that the San Francisco Bay area real estate market is improving:

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According to a report from Chapman University's Anderson Center for Economic Research, the consumer confidence level of Californians is the highest it's been since before the beginning of the recession in late 2007:

Chapman University, California Consumer Sentiment, 9/10/12

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Foreclosure Radar reports that foreclosure filings (notices of default and notices of sale) were down sharply in August.  This continues a mostly downward trend over the last year.

06075 - Foreclosure Filings

The same trend, although not as dramatic, is seen in the statewide numbers as well as the surrounding counties (Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo and Santa Clara).

Foreclosure Activity

ForeclosureRadar is one of the most widely quoted companies on real estate foreclosure activity nationally.  They also break down their data by county and zip code.

Here's their most recent graphs summarizing foreclosure activity in San Francisco for he last year.  Notice the significant fall off in Notices of Default and Notices of Sale in December compared to November and also compared to last December.  Maybe it's just a gesture acknowledging the holiday season, or maybe not.

06075 - Foreclosure Filings

There's also a noticeable uptick in Cancellations and a small but steady decline in the number of properties that ended up Back to Bank.

06075 - Foreclosure Outcomes

Consistent with the above, there's a noticeable decline in properties in the Preforeclosure stage as well as those Scheduled for Sale compared to last month and compared to December last year.

06075 - Foreclosure Inventories

These trends are not universal in the surrounding counties where, for example, Notice of Sale seems to be sharply up and Cancellations are mostly down.

Foreclosure Activity

Foreclosure Radar publishes some interesting statistics about foreclosure activity on a county-by-county basis.  Their overall California report for June paints a somewhat encouraging canvas:
Their July statistics for San Francisco shows the number of Notices of Default (the first step in a bank foreclosure) declined almost 22% from the previous month and declined 22% compared to July of last year.

See the full report here.