Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Number of Sales is Down for the First 11 Months

The number of residential sales (single family homes, condos/TICs) for the first 11 months of 2015 is the lowest in four years:

And, this is the second year of declining number of sales.  This year's sales through November were 4,676 compared to 5,140 in 2014 and 5,519 in 2013.  2014 was down 7% compared to 2013.  This year we're down 10% compared to 2014.

It's not clear what's causing the slowdown.  Possibly the large number of new construction condos that have come on line in the past three years is one factor.  (Our numbers are based on San Francisco MLS reported sales which, for the most part, do not include new construction sales).

Although the number of sales varies in a predictable pattern every year (recession or boom time), there was a notable decline this year in September with only 344 sales recorded in the MLS -- 100 fewer than the previous year.  That's the lowest number of sales in the 10 years of data we have in the MLS.

(Apologies for the very busy graph but it readily shows September sales this year as being the lowest.  It also shows the standard sales pattern in San Francisco of two peaks (Twin Peaks?) in sales every year centered around the spring market in May and June and then a second peak in October.

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