San Francisco Real Estate 1st Quarter = Sizzling Hot

First quarter results continue a trend that has been going on for three years where the total number of sales exceed the total of the previous year. Residential property selling prices including single family homes and condos are at historic highs and climbing. Inventory remains low and demand very high with almost no likelihood of increasing inventory to meet that demand. Below are the 1st quarter results from our monthly reports:

	# of bed/baths	# of closed sales	Average selling price (thousands)	Days on market	Selling price as % of listing price
Single family homes	2/1	70	$1,190	21	123%
	3/2	66	$1,626	22	115%
Condos	1/1	148	$846	40	103%
	2/1	53	$1,103	25	113%
	2/2	169	$1,429	38	103%

We also track the general movement of prices for all residential properties (single family homes and condos).  1^st quarter results:

Price Range (thousands)	# of sales	% of total
$ 0 - 499	23	2%	30.0% below $ 1,000,000
$ 500 - 799	118	12%
$ 800 - 999	169	17%
$ 1,000 - 1,499	294	29%	70% above $1,000,000
$ 1,500 – 1,999	210	20%
$ 2,000 – 2,499	94	9%
$ 2,500 - +	109	11%
Total	1,017

For comparison, during the 1^st quarter of 2017 there were 949 sales, 36% of which were under one million dollars.

Almost all studies track sales which are “lagging indicators”, usually 30-40 days behind the actual buy decision.  A few years ago, we began tracking new “hot sheet” listings every two weeks.  This gives us not only the number of new listings in two-week increments, but also how many of those new listings go into contract within the same two-week period.  We also measure price decreases (and increases).  Taken together these give us a picture of what’s happening in the market as a leading indicator and much closer to the present.  Our reports can be found at www.boldsf.com/Statistics

Land locked on three sides, the government of the city and county of San Francisco has firm control over new development and there appears little hope for single family home growth.  Virtually all new development in the city is high rise construction.  Currently 38% of the residential re-sale market is single family homes and 62% is condo/TIC.  Homes priced below $500k are almost non-existent except for those built as part of “below market rate” programs administered through the major’s office and deed restricted as to resale price and available only to those who meet income standards and are first time buyers.

In 2014, just four short years ago, the percentage of sales below $1million was over 50%.  Today it’s only 30% -- a rather remarkable movement and why even some real estate agents are experiencing “sticker shock”.

70% of single family home and condo sales closed at $1M or more.  11% closed at or above $2.5M.  The price range with the largest number of sales is the $1M - $1.5M range which is 29% of sales.  And the below $500k segment of the market was about 2%. 

All of which suggests that this San Francisco market will remain “sizzling hot” as we approach summer with less that four weeks of available inventory for single family homes, less than five weeks for condos, and less that six weeks for small investment properties (2-4 unit buildings).