Low Inventory of single family homes

There’s barely a month of inventory of single family homes in both San Francisco and Marin.  Sonoma is doing better with nearly 2 months of inventory.  San Francisco and Sonoma have 64 and 51 single family homes “coming soon”.  Marin has 11.

Marin Fundamentals (May compared to April)

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Number of sales in May was down 8% for single family homes and 12% for condos.

Average selling prices were down 7% and condos were up 3%.

Active listings are up 35% for single family homes and 7% for condos.

 

San Francisco Fundamentals (May compared to  April)

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Number of sales of single family homes was down 11% but basically unchanged for condos.

Average selling prices were up 4% for single family homes and up 2% for condos.

Active listings are up 10% for single family homes and 2% for condos.

Market so far in 2021`

Based on the Total Number of Closed Sales through May 31^st, the San Francisco residential real estate market remains on track to be among the best in the last 10 years.

By way of historical perspective, in 2013 closed sales for single family home through May 31^st totaled 1,052 and condos/TICs added an additional 1,350.  This year through the end of May single family home sales totaled 1,090 (a 4% increase over 8 years) and condos/TICs show closed sales of 1,827 (an increase of approx. 35%).

Available inventory of single-family homes continues to be between 2 and 4 weeks for homes under $3 million.  Available inventory for homes priced above $3 million is running between 2 and 4 months.

Inventory of condos priced below $2.5 million is between 2.5 and 3 months. Condos priced above $2.5 million inventory is 5+ months.

Based on average selling prices for single-family homes that we survey monthly (2 bedroom, 1 bath homes and 3 bedroom, 2 bath homes) continue to set historic highs almost every month.  For condos/TICs average selling prices have moderated for the three configurations we survey (1 bed/1 bath, 2 bed/1 bath, and 2 bed/2 bath).  Prior historic highs were all established in 2019. 

1 bed/1 bath prior historic average selling price was $871k.  Through May 31^st it is now $814k (a 7% reduction).

2 bed/1 bath prior historic average selling price was $1,174k.  Through May 31st it is now $1,129k (a 4% reduction).

2 bed/2 bath prior historic average selling price was $1,463kk.  Through May 31st it is now $1,386k (a 5% reduction).

Spring Market (already)

 Our spring residential real estate market has started early and continues strong.  Single family homes added 174 listings in the last 14-day reporting period; 53% higher than the same 2-week period in 2020.  Compared to the previous 14-day period single family homes new listings went from 141 to 174, a 25% increase.

Condos/TICs saw an increase compared to the same 14-day period last year of 73% from 172 to 308.  Our prior 14-day period saw a very slight decrease from 311 to 308, a 3% decrease.

As of 3/10/2021 there was approximately 12 weeks of available inventory for condos/TICs and there are 109 in the “coming soon” category.

The average selling price for the five configurations we survey each month shows that 2 bedroom, 1 bath and 3 bedroom, 2 bath single family homes saw an increase in average selling price of 15% for the 2/1s and 3% for 3/2s compared to the previous month.

1/1 and 2/1 condos/TICs each saw an 8% increase in average sales price while 2/2 condos/TICs saw a 2% decrease compared to the prior month.

We also analyze residential sales by price range.  One revealing item shows up when comparing the number of single-family homes sold in 2019 vs 2020.  In the price range from $1 million to $2.5 million total sales for single family homes made up 68% of all sales in 2019 but jumped to 71% in 2020.

73% of condos/TIC sales were in the range from $800k to $1.5 million in 2020, virtually unchanged from 72% in 2019.  Another 14.5% showed up in the $500k-$799k range in both 2020 and 2019.

The full reports are available at our blog:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics

Or the individual reports:

Bi-weekly Market Watch

San Francisco Sales by Price Range

New Listing Market Watch - Spring has Sprung Early

Although we had some rain during the past two weeks, we are now in the midst of a weeklong sunny and warm spell.  

The San Francisco residential real estate market continues to add substantial numbers of new inventory.  In the last 14 day tracking period single family home inventory was increased by 74% over the same period in 2020.  81 homes vs 161.  Condos/TICs had a 93% increase going from 161 to 311.

In 2021 the first four 14-day reporting periods had single family homes increasing by 23%, 380 to 468 compared to the same four reporting periods in 2020. Condos/TICs had a 16% increase:  673 vs 783.

Additional information, during 2020 the average number of single family homes that sold each month was 205.  The number of condos/TICs was 241.

The number of price reductions of single family homes dropped compared to the prior period:  23 vs 11 which is essentially the same as the same period a year ago.  Price reductions of condos remained high but virtually unchanged compared to the prior week:  57 vs 60.  During the same period last year there were 23 price reductions.

The full report can be seen at our website:

www.boldsf.com/Statistics

People leaving San Francisco in droves, but not too far

It's true that more people left San Francisco than arrived during the first eight months of the pandemic according to change-of-address data from the US Postal Service.  About 27,000 households arrived and 80,000 left (not quite double compared to 2019).

According to the USPS data, 50% of those departing San Francisco didn't leave the Bay area.  The top destinations were the counties immediately surrounding the Bay -- Alameda, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, Santa Clara and Sonoma.  

San Francisco Chronicle

KTVU

To me the most interesting part of these statistics is that virtually the same number of households moved into San Francisco in 2020 as the previous year.