New Listing Market Watch - Spring has Sprung Early

Although we had some rain during the past two weeks, we are now in the midst of a weeklong sunny and warm spell.  

The San Francisco residential real estate market continues to add substantial numbers of new inventory.  In the last 14 day tracking period single family home inventory was increased by 74% over the same period in 2020.  81 homes vs 161.  Condos/TICs had a 93% increase going from 161 to 311.

In 2021 the first four 14-day reporting periods had single family homes increasing by 23%, 380 to 468 compared to the same four reporting periods in 2020. Condos/TICs had a 16% increase:  673 vs 783.

Additional information, during 2020 the average number of single family homes that sold each month was 205.  The number of condos/TICs was 241.

The number of price reductions of single family homes dropped compared to the prior period:  23 vs 11 which is essentially the same as the same period a year ago.  Price reductions of condos remained high but virtually unchanged compared to the prior week:  57 vs 60.  During the same period last year there were 23 price reductions.

The full report can be seen at our website:

www.boldsf.com/Statistics

People leaving San Francisco in droves, but not too far

It's true that more people left San Francisco than arrived during the first eight months of the pandemic according to change-of-address data from the US Postal Service.  About 27,000 households arrived and 80,000 left (not quite double compared to 2019).

According to the USPS data, 50% of those departing San Francisco didn't leave the Bay area.  The top destinations were the counties immediately surrounding the Bay -- Alameda, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, Santa Clara and Sonoma.  

San Francisco Chronicle

KTVU

To me the most interesting part of these statistics is that virtually the same number of households moved into San Francisco in 2020 as the previous year.

Fundamentals -- January sales up in San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma year-over-year

Three of the reports we put together monthly are a series of "fundamentals" for San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma counties.  The reports show the number of sales for the month, average selling prices, days-on-market, premium, and price per square foot.

Here's an example from the San Francisco report.

For San Francisco we report on two configurations of single family homes (2 bedrooms/1 bath, and 3 bedrooms/2 baths) as well as all single family home sales.  For condos (including TICs and co-operatives) we report on three configurations as well as all condo sales.

The color coding indicates whether the numbers are higher (green) or lower (red) compared to the previous month.  It's not a surprise that the number of sales is down in January compared to December.

What is surprising is comparing this January's single family home sales with January 2020 we see a significantly higher number of sales this year vs last year.  In San Francisco its higher by 70% (151 vs 89).  In Marin sales were up 76% (130 vs 74) and in Sonoma sales were up 30% (285 vs 219).

Condo sales in all three counties were also up compared to a year ago.  In San Francisco sales were up 85% (257 vs 139), in Marin sales were up 43% (46 vs 30) and in Sonoma they were up 48% (43 vs 29).

Our fundamentals reports also show inventory (currently active on the market).  Here's an example from the San Francisco report:

In San Francisco inventory of single family homes was up 82% (255 vs 140) compared to early February 2020 and condos were up 99% (760 vs 381).  

In Marin inventory of single family homes was down 20% (152 vs 189) but condos were up 39% (75 vs 54).  

In Sonoma inventory of single family homes for sale was down 25% (486 vs 643) and condos were down 30% (53 vs 75).

These and other reports can be found at our web site: www.boldsf.com/Statistics

New Listing Market Watch - early February

Has the spring market begun?  In the last two weeks there were 448 new residential listings in San Francisco compared to just 264 for the same period in 2020.  Just over 300 were condos/TICs -- double the number in 202.  There were 147 new listings of single family homes compared to 108 a year ago -- a 36% increase.

Compared to the prior 2-week period ending 1/25/2021 new listings of single family homes jumped from 98 to 147.  Condos fell slightly from 316 to 301 new listings.

There were 23 price reductions of single family homes and 57 price reductions of condos.  Both of those numbers are more than double compared to the same period last year (10 and 24 respectively). We haven't seen that many price reductions since just before the Thanksgiving holiday.

2020 San Francisco Residential Real Estate Market in Review

If you just go by the “numbers” without taking into account the other “issues” that captured all the headlines last year it was a rather normal year for San Francisco residential real estate

Total residential sales for 2020 was 4,967 homes; for 2019 it was 5,023, a mere difference of 56 homes or a decline of .01%.

For the five categories of residential properties we survey each month the average selling prices show some surprising results:

Single family homes remain in high demand.  In December 2/1 and 3/2 homes had DOM (Days on Market) of 17 and 24 respectively and had premiums (selling price ÷ list price) of 111% and 104%.

In the condo/TIC market1/1, 2/1 and 2/2 units had DOMs of 52, 52 and 53 respectively and premiums of 98%, 101% and 98%.

But when you look at our other data, in this case Sales by Price Range, another story emerges.  Single family homes selling for over $3.5 million tend to sit on the market at least twice as long as lower priced homes.  Average days on market for home over $3.5 million is 50 compared to 27 for home priced lower.  In addition, a high percentage of homes listed for over $3.5 million are withdrawn or cancelled – a rate almost three times that of homes priced below $3.5 million.

And the law of supply and demand does still apply.  While current inventory for condos remains unusually high, still about 2.5 months of available units.

Our Condo vs TIC Quarterly Study shows a slight pickup in the number of TICs sold as a percentage of total sold condos+TICs.

As we look at (as of 1/11/2021) our marketplace we have one month supply of available single family homes and over 2.5 months of supply of condos/TICs available.  And waiting for the spring market with 192 units in the “coming soon” status (70 single family homes and 122 condos).  Perhaps this will be a more normal year in real estate.

And a quick review of the last 7 days hot sheet as of this morning shows there were 73 single family homes and 152 condos/TICs added.  Compare that to the prior 14 day period in 2020 when there were 92 single family homes and 189 condos added.  Spring market appears to have arrived with some fast-building inventory.

To see our complete year-end analyses please visit:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics