Sales Volume Down

Although sales prices are at or near record highs, the number of residential properties* that have sold in San Francisco during the first five months of the year is well below what we've experienced for the past six years.   In fact, the number of sales hasn't been this low since 2009, the first full year of the last recession. *Single family homes, condos and TICs.

As the graph shows, we have been on a steady downward trend for the number of sales since the peak of 2013.  (This trend is consistent with full year results as well.)

San Francisco follows a very predictable month-to-month sales cycle during the calendar year. Monthly sales are lowest between Thanksgiving and February after which the spring market kicks in reaching a peak in May or June.  That's followed by a drop off through September.  There's another peak in October.

This year the spring market seems to be petering out early with essentially flat sales in March, April and May.

The graph is busy but it demonstrates the consistent monthly sales cycle (good years and bad years). However, this year (in dark blue) is well below sales last year (in red) and below almost every year we've been tracking these statistics.

New Listing Market Watch - listings and price reductions are up

Our biweekly survey shows continued growth of inventory as you would expect this time of year but this last two weeks of new listings (366) exceeds almost every prior two week period except for mid-September last year.

The number of new listings going into contract in the same two week period ticked up slightly from the previous report (44 vs 27) but still remains relatively low compared to most of 2015.  This suggest somewhat reduced competition among buyers.

Our report also shows price reductions over the past two reporting periods are higher than at any time in the past two years with a couple of exceptions (we typically see price reductions spike in November each year ahead of the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays).   In this most recent two-week period there were 77 price reductions and in the previous reporting period there were 95.  A year ago for the two comparable periods the number of price reductions was 29 and 23.  Sellers apparently are getting the message.

More condos are being reduced than single family homes and, anecdotally, price reductions seem to be concentrated toward the higher end of the price range.

The full report can be found on our website:  www.boldsf.com/statistics

New Listing Market Watch

The signs of a slowing market continue and are more pronounced.  Although new listings in the last two weeks are higher than for the comparable period last year (349 compared to 312 a year ago) especially for single family homes (147 vs 119 a year ago), the percentage of these listings going into contract in the same two-week period is down significantly compared to the prior year period.

This seems to show that buyers have more to choose from and they are not willing to be stampeded into making offers as quickly as they were last year.

We've also noticed a significant increase in the number of new listings posting price reductions within the first two weeks of coming on the market.  Almost two-thirds of the 202 new condo listings posted price reductions.

Overall, our monthly sales report for the five categories of single family homes and condos we track on a monthly basis shows substantial increases in inventory

along with a decrease in the number of properties sold compared to a year ago.

New Listing Market Watch

New listings for single family homes during the last two weeks are down slightly from the comparable period a year ago (138 compared to 150).  However, condo listings have increased to 175 compared to 166 a year ago.

However, compared to the previous two-week period ending April 11, new listings are down for both single family homes and condos.

The number of new listings going into contract during the first two weeks of listing is down sharply compared to a year ago.  For single family homes 13% compared to 18% a year ago.  For condos 9.7% compared to 17.5% a year ago.

Taken together it seems the condo market is slowing noticeably.  27% of the new listings in the last two weeks have already posted price reductions, compared to only 7% during the same period last year.

(These numbers are taken from the MLS and do not include most new development condos which are not posted in the MLS.)

News that makes us feel good

A bit of great news about our brokerage:   RealTrends publishes statistics for residential real estate brokerages nationally and within this year's report Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Drysdale Properties is in the top ten brokerages based in Northern California and in the top 100 (92nd, actually) nationwide.

Great to be part of such a growing, dynamic, locally-owned company!