Highlights from our Monthly Reports

 San Francisco Market Analysis

The average selling price in June for all single family homes in San Francisco fell to $2,131k compared to $2,417k in May.  The number of sales, days-on-market, and premium were mostly unchanged.

The premium (selling price vs listing price) for a 2 bedroom, 1 bath single family home was down from $118k to $114k.  The number of sales was down to 21 in June from 31 the previous month. The avgerage selling price was down 3% to $1,224 from $1,265 the previous month

The number of sales of 3 bedroom, 2 bath single family homes was unchanged.  The average selling price was down to $1,622k compared to $1,803k the previous month.  The premium rose to 117% compared to 113% in May.

For condos, average selling prices were down across the board compared to May while days-on-market have increased. The number of units for sale is up except for 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom units.

Overall, condo inventory (units on the market) is down by 23% compared to May.  For single family homes inventory is down 18% compared to May.

 Condos vs TICs

In the first six months of the year TICs sold for $66k - $175k less than a comparable condo.  The exception is 1 bedroom, 1 bath units where TICs are selling for $41k more than the comparable condo.

 San Francisco Fundamentals

Compared to a year ago, the average selling price of a 2 bedroom, 1 bath single family home dropped $147,000 ($1,224,000 vs $1,371,000).  In June 2025 buyers paid 14% over asking compared to 24% over asking in June 2024.

Also compared to a year ago, the number of condo sales was up 33%.  Average selling prices were down slightly by $4,000 although 2 bedroom, 2 bath condos sold for $109,000 more in June 2025 than a year ago ($1,265,000 vs $1,156,000).  

Highlights of monthly reports for April

Single Family Homes in San Francisco

Compared to March:

• 2/1 single family home sales about the same number as March.  Avg selling price was down slightly.  DOM up slightly.  Premium down slightly to 119% of asking price.

• 3/2 single family homes -- big jump in number of sales -- 52 (double compared to March).  Avg selling price down 6%. DOM dropped to 16 compared to 21 the previous month.

• All sales of single family homes: 214 compared to 177 in March (up over 20%); avg selling price down 11%; DOM up to 23 compared to 20 in March.

All Residential Sales

Compared to a year ago:

• Total number of residential sales (single family homes, condos, TICs, co-ops) was down 5% compared to April last year.  But sales are up 5% for the first four months of the year compared to the same period last year.  

• Overall, residential sales are currently at pre-pandemic levels.  

• Average sales prices for 3/2 single family homes was $1,648k in April, 8% below the all time high in 2022 of $1,773k.  (The average selling price of all single family homes in April was $2,164k -- a reminder to be cautious when talking about average selling prices).

Condos/TICs in San Francisco

• 46 1/1 condos/TICs sold in April, the same as March with an average selling price of $747k -- 12% higher than March but still well off the high average selling price in 2019 which was $871k.

• 64 2/2 condos/TICs sold in April, up slightly from March, but with an average selling price of $1,244k which was lower by 3% compared to March.  The highest average selling  price for 2/2 condos was achieved in 2019 at $1,463k.

 

Highlights from September and 3rd Quarter Sales Reports

 

• TICs remain priced below comparable condos.

• Among the five categories of single family homes and condos we track, the number of active listings is above levels pre-pandemic

• Both single family homes and condos, on average, are selling for prices above their listing price except for 1 bedroom/1 bath condos which are selling for 99% of their listing price.

• For those expecting a big upsurge in sales following the Fed's mid-September interest reduction, keep in mind that most transactions take 30 days or more from initial contract to closing.  If there will be a noticable increase in sales it should be apparent in October's statistics.

Highlights from August sales reports

The number of new listings jumped significantly in the two weeks ending 9/16/24 -- compared to the previous two week period new listings of single family homes rose 78% from 125 to 222; condos went from 147 to 396 (169%).  The total number of new residential listings was 618, about the same as last year in the same two week period, 685.

Not surprisingly, the number of price reductions rose for single family homes from 17 to 35 and for condos from 42 to 86.

Traditionally, we always see a notable increase in listings every year right after Labor Day.  And keep in mind last year we had just experienced a two and a half week period in August when the MLS was not available.

The average sales price for a two-bedroom, one-bath single family homes so far this year is up about 3% compared to last year ($1,219,000 vs $1,180) but still below the all-time high of $1,339,000 in 2021.  Similarly for three-bedroom, two-bath single family homes, the average sales price so far this year is $1,626,000 which is almost 5% higher than last year but still off from their all-time high of $1,773,000 in 2022.

The average sales price for one-bedroom, one-bath condo so far this year is $721,000 which is about 2% higher than last year and is the first year-over-year gain following four years of average sales price declines.  However, the current average sales price is off 17% compared to the peak of $871,000 in 2019.

Similar story with two-bedroom, two-bath condos with an average sales price so far this year of $1,255,000 which is 3% below last  year's average and 14% off the average sales price in 2019 of $1,463,000.

Highlights from our monthly reports

 

New listings of single family homes in the two weeks ending 8/5/2024 are up compared to a year ago:  108 vs 98.  Similarly, new listings of condos in the same period are up 165 vs 143.

Price reductions for both single family homes and condos are essentially the same as a year ago:  25 vs 23, and 63 vs 71 respectively.

Average selling prices for single family homes in July are down compared to June sales:  $1,984k vs $2,120k (down about 7%).  Compared to a year ago: $1,984k vs $1,834k (up about 8%).  For condos, average selling prices in July are up just slightly compared to June:  $1,289k vs $1,278k  Compared to a year ago condo sales prices are up:  $1,289k vs $1,220k (about 6%).

As always, there are variations depending on configuration (bedrooms, bathrooms).  Especially for small condos, average selling prices for 1 bedroom, 1 bath condos have been trending down since 2020.  2 bedroom, 1 bath condos selling prices have been up and down over the past four months in a range between $1,043k and $1,224k.

As of 8/12/2024 the number of active listings for the five configurations of single family homes and condos is down compared to two years ago but up compared to 2021 and every year between 2019 and 2013.

The total number of residential sales for the first seven months of the year is still behind where we were over the past 18 years with the except of last year (2521 vs 2294), 2020 (2521 vs 2309) and 2009 (2521 vs 2162).

Highlights from our monthly reports

 Here are a few bullet points with items of note from our latest monthly reports:

• 3 bedroom / 2 bath (3/2) single family homes sold at a 19% premium over list price in 19 days which is well above the premium in February and March which was 10-11% and 30-35 DOM respectively

• 2/1 single family homes were right behind in terms of premium:  115%, the range it’s been in since February

• These two categories of single family homes (2/1 and 3/2) represent approx. 36% of total single family home sales in April; in March it was 35%.

• Average selling prices for 1/1 condos has been creeping up each month so far this year from $724k in January to $751 in April.  Premium similarly has increased from 96% in January to 102% in April.

• The number of sales of 2/2 condos jumped in April to 78.  The previous three months had averaged 45.

• These three categories of condos/TICs (1/1, 2/1, and 2/2) represent 56-72% of all sales in the last two months.

• Annual average selling price for a two-unit building has declined for three years in a row.  So far this year the average is $1.928k vs $2.221k in 2021 which was the highest we’ve recorded since 2007.

• Same story for three-unit buildings.  So far this year the average is $1.647k vs $2.201k in 2021.  The highest average sales price was $2.328k in 2018.

• For four unit buildings so far this year the average is $1.980k, up from last year’s $1.882k.

• 2/1 single family homes so far this year have an average selling price of $1.221k, up from last year’s $1.180k.  The high was $1.339k in 2021.

• Same story for 3/2 single family homes which so far this year have an average selling price of $$1.681k, up from last years $1.553k and less than $100k off the all time high of $1.773k in 2022.

• For 1/1 condo/TICs so far this year the average selling price is $749k, up compared to last year’s $708k which was the forth year in a row of declining average annual sales prices.  The high $871k was achieved in 2019.

• For 2/1 condo/TICs the average selling price so far this year is $1.059k, up compared to last year’s $1.011k.  The high was $1.174k in 2019.

• For 2/2 condo/TICs this year’s average selling price so far is $1.261k which is down compared to last year’s $1.293k. If this trend continues this year will be the third in a row of declining average annual sales prices.   The high was $1.463k in 2019.

• Total residential sales in April (452) was up 20% compared to March but is well shy of April sales in both 2021 and 2022 (715 and 609 respectively).  However, April sales this year were much more in line with pre-pandemic numbers.

A Glimmer of Hope for Small Condos?

 We've been watching small condos take it on the chin for months with lower average sales prices coupled with large numbers of units on the market.  But in February the average sales price for 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom condos was $743k.  This was the third straight month where average sales prices have increased compared to the previous month.  

Similarly, 2 bedroom, 1 bath condos average sales price in February was $1,098k, the third month of month-over-month sales price increases.

We're still a long way from pre-pandemic average sales prices in the $800k range for one bedroom units and high $1100k range for two bedroom, one bath units.  But, still if we see mortgage interest rates come down later this year as predicted maybe we'll look back and see this as the start of a trend.

Our most recent monthly reports are available at our web site.

A Market Update through December

Our regular reports have been updated to include December sales results.  During our office meeting today we  discussed some of the highlights.  Here are my notes:

”Existing home sales hit its lowest level last year since 1995, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors”

San Francisco’s version of this quote:  existing home sales were the lowest we’ve had going back as far as my records go – 2005.  Total residential (not residential income, multi-unit) sales were 3,858.  The previous low was in 2008 when 4,334 units sold.

Residential income property sales (2, 3, and 4-units) 474 – the lowest in 10 years except for 2020 which was 444.  On average 638 residential income properties sell.  The same profile shows up in the 5+ unit category.  110 sales in 2023, the lowest except for 2020 when sales were 93.

I also consulted ChatGPT which told me:

“I don't have real-time data or updates for the year 2023. For the most accurate and recent information on the residential real estate market in San Francisco in 2023, I recommend checking reliable sources such as real estate reports, market analyses, or news articles from that time. Market conditions can change rapidly, and up-to-date information will provide a more accurate picture of the trends, pricing, and overall dynamics in the San Francisco real estate market during the specific period you're interested in.”

 New Listings and Price Reductions 

The graph above shows new listings in two week increments going back to 2017.

·       There was a big jump in new condo listings in the last two weeks which we expect each year immediately following the holidays (rain, shine, recession or pandemic).  264 compared to 83 in the prior two week period.  265 for the same period last year and compared to 147 in 2020 (pre pandemic). 

·        Single family homes increase was not quite as dramatic.  127 new listings compared 43 in the prior two week period.  99 a year ago and compared to 74 in 2020 (pre pandemic).

·       

The number of price reductions are about the same as last year – 16 for single family homes and 38 for condos.  Pre pandemic price reductions were 5 and 12.

Inventory 

The number of active listings (especially condos) exceeded monthly sales in every month in 2023 in a much wider gap between listings and sales than pre-pandemic.  

·       Basically, there are plenty of listings but not enough buyers.

Sales Prices

·        These two graphs tell the story.

We survey five different configurations of single family homes and condos.

o   2 bed, 1 bath single family homes sales prices have gone down 12% from their high in 2021 of $1,339 to $1,180 in 2023 a number not seen since 2017. 

o   3/2 single family homes have also gone down 12% in just one year from their high in 2022 of $1,773 down to $1,553 (back to 2018 levels).

o   1/1 condos average selling price in 2023 was $708, down 19% compared to their high of $871 in 2019.  Annual average selling prices have gone down each of the past four years.

o   2/1 condos are down 14% from $1,174 high in 2019 to $1,011 in 2023. 

o   2/2 condos are down 12% from $1,463 in 2019 to $1,293 in 2023.

·  Similar reductions  in average selling prices for multi-unit properties.

o   2-units down 12% from their high in 2021 ($1,962 vs $2,221)

o   3-units down 15% from their high in 2018 ($1,996 vs $2,328)

o   4-units down 13% from their high in 2021 ($1,882 vs $2,159)

TICs 

·        Currently, there are 400+ active listings with price differentials between TICs and similarly configured condos ranging between $48k for 1 bedroom units to $300k+ for 2bd/2ba units.

Those differentials hold for average sales prices with the range being $18k for 1bd, $220k for 2bd/1ba, and $209k for 2bd/2ba. 

October sales highlights

Updated reports have been posted on our web site:

www.boldsf.com/Statistic

San Francisco

New Listing Market Watch

Compared to the previous two week period:

• Big drop in new condo/TIC listings 161 vs 232
• Big increase in condo/TIC price reductions

Compared to the same two week period a year ago:

• Smaller number of price reductions of single-family homes
• Somewhat smaller number of price reductions of condos/TICs
• Total new listings down 17% compared to the prior two week period but just about equal to the same period last year.

Fundamentals

• Inventory is virtually the same both for single family homes and condos/TICs compared to two weeks ago
• Sales for the month so far (we have one day to go) shows single family homes near what they were for October last year but condo sales are only 74% of what they were a year ago.

Market Analysis

• Big jump in avg sales price for 2/1 single family homes $1260 vs $1080 in September
• No similar increase in avg sales price for 3/2 single family homes.
• Both configurations are selling 12-14% over asking.
• Overall the number of sales of all single family homes was up 34% compared to September and slightly ahead of the same month a year ago.
• Number of sales of condos jumped 16% from 159 in September to 185 in October.  Average sales price of all condo sales dropped 7% from $1367 to $1267
• Big jump in the number of 1/1 condos sold in October:  50 vs 29 and a corresponding rise in average selling price:  $789 vs $670 and a drop in average days on market from 72 to 54.  Premium was at 98%, down 1% compared to September.
• Avg selling price of 2/1 condos was up 12% and for the first time in a while the premiums was over asking by 3%.

Marin

Fundamentals

• 4/4 single family homes averaging sales prices well below asking.
• Most premiums above average are in the smaller homes 2/1, 2/2, 3/2

Some "highlights" from April reports

SAN FRANCISCO

The total number of new listings (single family homes and condos) in each two-week period since the first of the year have been down consistently compared to the same periods in 2022.  We would expect that to change after July since that's when mortgage interest rates began to increase and new listings fell.

For condos, the number of price reductions rose from 73, in the most recent two week period, to 93 in the prior two week period.

The number of sales of single family homes in April rose to 165 compared to 148 in March.  However, the average sales price fell from $2,282,000 to $2,149,000 (almost 6%).  

Condo sales fell 10% to 208 compared to March but the average sales price increased 12% to $1,377,000.

Inventory for single family homes rose to 323 compared to 267 in March, a 20% jump.  The number of condo listings remained unchanged at 623.

Overall, San Francisco remains well below typical sales number for the first four months of the year.

 MARIN

Average selling price for single family homes in Marin in April was down but just slightly (1.4%) from $2,158.000 to $2,129,000.  However, of the six configurations of homes we track, four of them had average selling prices increase compared to March.

The average condo sales price was also down more significant at $809,000 compared to $946,000 in March, almost 15%.

Inventory, as is normal this time  of year, is up compared to March with 213 single family homes on the market compared to 130 in March.

Comparing first quarter sales this year vs 2022 of the six configurations of single family homes we track, the number of sales was down from 248 to 153, an almost 40% decline.  There was a similar 31% decline in condo sales for the four configurations we track.

Observations from January 2023 Reports

Most of our monthly reports were posted a week ago.  Here are some observations:

• Total sales are down compared to last month and last year.

• Recent headlines such as “Existing-home sales fell every single month in 2022, new NAR data shows”  is true but look closer:

The headline is only true if you’re comparing 2022 to 2021 both of which were anomalies.  (See first graph).  But 2021 had the highest number of monthly sales in 10 of 12 months.  Compared to 2019 (pre Covid) 2022 had more sales in 7 of 12 months (second graph).  

                (Click here for full size graphs)

• Annual average sales prices:  All but one of the five categories we survey (3/2 single family homes) are down compared to 2021.  2/1 and 3/2 single family homes and 2-flats are averaging above 2019 levels.  2/1 and 2/2 condos are within 3-45 of 2019 levels.  

• Big drop in DOM for 2/1 single family in January sales

• 1/1 condos avg selling price back up over $700k after dropping below $700k in December

• Big uptick in 2/1 condo listings

• Number of active listings is up across the board – not surprising since the comparison is to early January.

• No sales of 3-unit buildings in January – 28 available

• Premiums are easing on some single family homes.

• DOM on condos increasing 

• Of the 69 units active, in contract or pending priced under $500k 44 were BMR units (64%)

December and 4th Quarter Recap

This week we posted our regular monthly and quarterly reports for 2022 as well as our biweekly New Listing Market Watch report.  Here are some highlights (lowlights?).

NewListing Market Watch

• ·       Single family new listings: 94 in 2021, 64 in 2022, 42 this year.
• ·       Condo new listings: 241, 151, and 84

Fundamentals

• ·       Sales in December down compared to November (typical for this time of year)

• ·       Average selling prices are down compared to November, -2% for single family homes and 22% for condos.  Compared to December a year ago average selling prices are down 22% for single family homes and 24% for condos.

• ·       Inventory is up over 50% for single family homes compared to a year ago, and 7-8% for condos.

 

By PriceRange

• ·       Premiums for the year compared to 2021 were steady at 112% for single family homes and 103% for condos. 

• ·       BUT, for the last six months premiums dropped for single family homes to 105% and for condos to 100%.  (By comparison for the last half of 2021 premiums were 112% for single family homes and 105% for condos).

 

Quarterly

• ·       For the five configurations of single family homes and condos we track, the number of sales and average sales prices were down across the board.

4th Quarter sales among the lowest in years

While the number of San Francisco residential sales in the 2021 4th quarter was one of the highest in years it appears the this year’s 4th quarter will be among the lowest.  It’s already clear that this year’s 4th quarter will be the lowest of all four quarters in 2022.  Last year there were 1,879 closed sales in the 4^th quarter (801 single family homes and 1,078 condos/TICs).  This year so far (through December 5^th) there have been 804 closed sales (380 single family homes and 424 condos/TICs).

There are also currently 159 single family homes in contract and pending and 177 condos/TICs for a total of 336.

As mortgage rates climb competition has almost disappeared and negotiations have become commonplace, particularly over selling price.  Comparing average selling price during the first three quarters of 2022 for the five categories we survey monthly vs. the average selling price from October 1r 2/1 single family homes declined by 8%, 3/2 single family homes declined 14%, 1/1 condos by 8%, 2/1 condos by 6% and 2/2 condos by 8%.

Even with the normal inventory withdrawls and cancellation which we typically see following Thanksgiving, there is still plenty of inventory on the market:  5 weeks of single family home inventory and about 9 weeks of condo/TIC inventory.

Where are the buyers?

What a difference a year makes in the San Francisco real estate market.  2021 was the best year for total closed sales since 2004, including the fourth quarter.  The fourth quarter usually vies with the first quarter in a typical year for the fewest sales.  Yet in 2021 it turned out to be the second best quarter after our second quarter spring market.

The 2022 fourth quarter has started out very slowly.  The single family home segment is still showing demand but rising interest rates are affecting even that portion of the market with moderating final selling prices, disappearing offer dates, and fewer buyers overall.

The condo/TIC segment has seen an almost 25% drop in closed sales compared to 2021 with falling average selling prices, increasing days on market, price reductions, and withdrawals.  Available inventory remains almost three months.  Most of us would call this a “buyer’s market” which hasn’t been part of our vocabulary since 2010.

Single family homes average selling prices remain at historic highs for properties priced below $2.5 million, but there are signs of downward moderation.  For the 1/1, 2/1, and 2/2 condos we survey average selling prices are down by 6%, 2%, and 3% compared to previous historic highs established in 2019.

The numbers indicate a slowdown is here.  Sellers are slowly adjusting to that realization.

Has sanity returned to the San Francisco residential real estate marketplace?

 

September ends a very slow third quarter for closed residential sales.  There were 1,815 single family homes that closed and 2,466 condos/TICs.  Compared to the third quarter of 2021 single family home closed sales declined 15%, condos/TICs declined 25% and total combined residential sales declined 21%.

Inventory continues to build following the Labor Day holiday weekend as it does most years.  Single family homes have an inventory of about two months supply and condos/TICs show an almost three month supply.  Of the 432 currently active single family homes 138 of them, almost 32%, are priced at or above $2.5 million.

Average selling prices continue to moderate downward.  While single family homes remain at historic highs they have been declining in recent months.  Days on market are increasing and overbidding is declining.  All of which means lower average selling prices.  And, as we approach the 7% mortgage interest rate level, this will probably dampen sales even further.

Active buyers are finding plenty of available inventory.  Competition has dwindled and, in many cases, disappeared.  Negotiating is back on the table.  DOM continue to increase.  While some overbidding continues in a few “pockets of popularity”, offer dates have largely disappeared and the few we’ve seen have not succeeded in generating accepted offers.

Post Labor Day

 The post Labor Day residential real estate market opened with a bang.  In the past seven days 398 new homes were added to our inventory – 126 single family homes and 272 condos/TICs.  Including these new additions, single family homes now represent about 1.5 months of available inventory and condos/TICs  2.5 months. 

It appears closed sales are still lagging behind the first eight months of 2021 sales by almost 20%.  Single family homes are 14% behind and condos/TICs are behind 24% compared to the same eight month period last year.

Average selling prices remain at historic highs for single family homes priced under $2.75 million.  However the overall market is showing signs of average sales prices moderating downward.  In particular, condos/TICs have declined 4-6% compared to the historic highs reached in 2019 for the three configurations we survey.

When you factor in another fed rate increase of as much as 100 basis points coming soon, interest rates could reach the 6% range going into the fourth quarter.  As our old broker used to say “the market is the market” – you either learn how to work it to your client’s advantage or complain to anyone who will listen how bad it is.

Taking Stock of the Post Labor Day Market

 The San Francisco residential real estate market remains quite active even though new inventory coming onto the market has slowed to numbers we usually don’t see until December.  There remains about four weeks of available single family home inventory as of 9/5/22 and condos/TIC inventory about eight weeks.  In addition there are 84 single family homes and 154 condos/TICs in the “coming soon” category.

Comparing closed sales for the first eight months of this year vs 2021 single family homes have declined by 14% and condos/TICs declined by 24%.  Overall residential sales declined by 20%.

Historic high average selling prices remain for single family homes priced below $2.75 million.  However, the condos/TICs segment has moderated.  For 1/1, 2/1 and 2/2 configurations* we survey each remains off their historic highs established in 2019.  1/1’s have gone from $871k to $824k,  2/1’s from $1,174k to $1,168k, and 2/2's from $1,463k to $1,429k (-5.4%, -0.6%. and -2.3% respectively).

This new market has much to offer for buyers and sellers.  Inventory remains relatively stable and consistent – 1 month for single family homes and 2 months for condos/TICs.  Rising interest rates typically means less competition and generally selling prices closer to list prices with offers that contain more conditions and more back and forth negotiations.

Also of note, in the last two months there has been an unusually large number of listings that have been withdrawn particularly in the $1million-$1.5million price range.

 

*bedrooms/baths

First six months 2022 vs 2021

The number of San Francisco residential closed sales, including single family homes and condos/TICs, for the first six months of 2022 are down 17% compared to the first six months of last year (2021).  Single family homes are down by 11% and condos/TICs are down by 22%

Reviewing the five configurations we survey monthly 2/1 (bedrooms/bathrooms) and 3/2 single family homes had an increase of 7% for 2/1s and a 4% decrease.  Of the 1/1, 2/1 and 2/2 condos/TICs it’s quite a different story.  1/1s are down 23%, 2/1s are down 36% and 2/2s are down 16%.

At the same time the average selling price shows an increase in all five categories we survey.  2/1 single family homes are up 6%, 3/2 single family homes are up 10%.  For all single family homes regardless of configuration that closed in the first six months are up 1% on average.  Condos/TICs also saw increases in average selling prices for every configuration we survey, 1/1, 2/1 and 2/2 increased by 2%, 2% and 5% respectively.

Inventory continues to increase as is normal for this time of year.  There is approximately 5 weeks of single family homes currently available and 11 weeks for condos/TICs. 

These statistics are based on MLS listings.  New construction units are generally not included (except for sample units) so available inventory of condos is more likely to be in the 3-4 month range.

In our 24 years of keeping stats on SF real estate there has never been this high a number of available condo/TIC units.

Reviewing First Five Months of 2022

The number of San Francisco residential closed sales through May 31 of this year shows a decline of 15% with single family homes down 7% and condos/TICs down 19% when compared to the first five months 2021.  (2021 was the best year for total sales since 2004).

Demand for single family homes remains strong and average selling prices remain at historic highs for 2bed/1bath and 3bed/2bath configurations we survey monthly.  In the last three months each configuration has shown a decline in the average selling prices – 2/1s by 5% and 3/2s by 12%.

For the three configurations we survey of condos/TICs, 1/1s are down 9%, 2/1s down 7% and 2/2s down 9% over the last three months.

As of 6/6/22 there is approx. 6 weeks of available inventory for all single family homes and about 11 weeks for all condos/TICs.

Much of the decline in selling prices could be anticipated given the number of available properties.  For example, our condo/TIC inventory has reached about 11 weeks which does not include new construction inventory which is not usually listed in the MLS.

However, average sales prices for single family homes become less predictable even as the inventory increases.  It could be the decline in average selling prices may be the result of rising interest rates or, perhaps, buyers’ agents are advising against making aggressive offers.

34% of single family homes that closed this year through 5/31/22 sold at or above $2.5 million.  4% closed at or below $1 million.  15% of the condo/TICs closed at or above $2 million while 35% closed at or below $1 million.

Inventory may be low but sales continue to boom

As buyers agents we're routinely bemoaning the lack of inventory.  But sometimes it's worth taking a high level view of sales.

By most measurers, last year (2021) was a boom year for residential sales in San Francisco with over 7,300 units changing hands -- the highest number we've recorded in the 16 years we've been keeping records.  The prior three years (2018-2020) total sales were in the 5,200-5,300 range, 28% below 2021.

To get a closer perspective on how we're doing so far this year here is a graph comparing the first four months of 2022 to the same period for previous years.

With the exception of 2021, the first four months this year have seen more sales than any of the years back to 2006.  Climate change (earlier spring market)?  Afraid of missing out on historically low interest rates?

Will this trend last for the rest of the year?