Highlights from September and 3rd Quarter Sales Reports

 

• TICs remain priced below comparable condos.

• Among the five categories of single family homes and condos we track, the number of active listings is above levels pre-pandemic

• Both single family homes and condos, on average, are selling for prices above their listing price except for 1 bedroom/1 bath condos which are selling for 99% of their listing price.

• For those expecting a big upsurge in sales following the Fed's mid-September interest reduction, keep in mind that most transactions take 30 days or more from initial contract to closing.  If there will be a noticable increase in sales it should be apparent in October's statistics.

Highlights from August sales reports

The number of new listings jumped significantly in the two weeks ending 9/16/24 -- compared to the previous two week period new listings of single family homes rose 78% from 125 to 222; condos went from 147 to 396 (169%).  The total number of new residential listings was 618, about the same as last year in the same two week period, 685.

Not surprisingly, the number of price reductions rose for single family homes from 17 to 35 and for condos from 42 to 86.

Traditionally, we always see a notable increase in listings every year right after Labor Day.  And keep in mind last year we had just experienced a two and a half week period in August when the MLS was not available.

The average sales price for a two-bedroom, one-bath single family homes so far this year is up about 3% compared to last year ($1,219,000 vs $1,180) but still below the all-time high of $1,339,000 in 2021.  Similarly for three-bedroom, two-bath single family homes, the average sales price so far this year is $1,626,000 which is almost 5% higher than last year but still off from their all-time high of $1,773,000 in 2022.

The average sales price for one-bedroom, one-bath condo so far this year is $721,000 which is about 2% higher than last year and is the first year-over-year gain following four years of average sales price declines.  However, the current average sales price is off 17% compared to the peak of $871,000 in 2019.

Similar story with two-bedroom, two-bath condos with an average sales price so far this year of $1,255,000 which is 3% below last  year's average and 14% off the average sales price in 2019 of $1,463,000.

Highlights from our monthly reports

 

New listings of single family homes in the two weeks ending 8/5/2024 are up compared to a year ago:  108 vs 98.  Similarly, new listings of condos in the same period are up 165 vs 143.

Price reductions for both single family homes and condos are essentially the same as a year ago:  25 vs 23, and 63 vs 71 respectively.

Average selling prices for single family homes in July are down compared to June sales:  $1,984k vs $2,120k (down about 7%).  Compared to a year ago: $1,984k vs $1,834k (up about 8%).  For condos, average selling prices in July are up just slightly compared to June:  $1,289k vs $1,278k  Compared to a year ago condo sales prices are up:  $1,289k vs $1,220k (about 6%).

As always, there are variations depending on configuration (bedrooms, bathrooms).  Especially for small condos, average selling prices for 1 bedroom, 1 bath condos have been trending down since 2020.  2 bedroom, 1 bath condos selling prices have been up and down over the past four months in a range between $1,043k and $1,224k.

As of 8/12/2024 the number of active listings for the five configurations of single family homes and condos is down compared to two years ago but up compared to 2021 and every year between 2019 and 2013.

The total number of residential sales for the first seven months of the year is still behind where we were over the past 18 years with the except of last year (2521 vs 2294), 2020 (2521 vs 2309) and 2009 (2521 vs 2162).

Highlights from our monthly reports

 Here are a few bullet points with items of note from our latest monthly reports:

• 3 bedroom / 2 bath (3/2) single family homes sold at a 19% premium over list price in 19 days which is well above the premium in February and March which was 10-11% and 30-35 DOM respectively

• 2/1 single family homes were right behind in terms of premium:  115%, the range it’s been in since February

• These two categories of single family homes (2/1 and 3/2) represent approx. 36% of total single family home sales in April; in March it was 35%.

• Average selling prices for 1/1 condos has been creeping up each month so far this year from $724k in January to $751 in April.  Premium similarly has increased from 96% in January to 102% in April.

• The number of sales of 2/2 condos jumped in April to 78.  The previous three months had averaged 45.

• These three categories of condos/TICs (1/1, 2/1, and 2/2) represent 56-72% of all sales in the last two months.

• Annual average selling price for a two-unit building has declined for three years in a row.  So far this year the average is $1.928k vs $2.221k in 2021 which was the highest we’ve recorded since 2007.

• Same story for three-unit buildings.  So far this year the average is $1.647k vs $2.201k in 2021.  The highest average sales price was $2.328k in 2018.

• For four unit buildings so far this year the average is $1.980k, up from last year’s $1.882k.

• 2/1 single family homes so far this year have an average selling price of $1.221k, up from last year’s $1.180k.  The high was $1.339k in 2021.

• Same story for 3/2 single family homes which so far this year have an average selling price of $$1.681k, up from last years $1.553k and less than $100k off the all time high of $1.773k in 2022.

• For 1/1 condo/TICs so far this year the average selling price is $749k, up compared to last year’s $708k which was the forth year in a row of declining average annual sales prices.  The high $871k was achieved in 2019.

• For 2/1 condo/TICs the average selling price so far this year is $1.059k, up compared to last year’s $1.011k.  The high was $1.174k in 2019.

• For 2/2 condo/TICs this year’s average selling price so far is $1.261k which is down compared to last year’s $1.293k. If this trend continues this year will be the third in a row of declining average annual sales prices.   The high was $1.463k in 2019.

• Total residential sales in April (452) was up 20% compared to March but is well shy of April sales in both 2021 and 2022 (715 and 609 respectively).  However, April sales this year were much more in line with pre-pandemic numbers.

A Glimmer of Hope for Small Condos?

 We've been watching small condos take it on the chin for months with lower average sales prices coupled with large numbers of units on the market.  But in February the average sales price for 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom condos was $743k.  This was the third straight month where average sales prices have increased compared to the previous month.  

Similarly, 2 bedroom, 1 bath condos average sales price in February was $1,098k, the third month of month-over-month sales price increases.

We're still a long way from pre-pandemic average sales prices in the $800k range for one bedroom units and high $1100k range for two bedroom, one bath units.  But, still if we see mortgage interest rates come down later this year as predicted maybe we'll look back and see this as the start of a trend.

Our most recent monthly reports are available at our web site.

A Market Update through December

Our regular reports have been updated to include December sales results.  During our office meeting today we  discussed some of the highlights.  Here are my notes:

”Existing home sales hit its lowest level last year since 1995, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors”

San Francisco’s version of this quote:  existing home sales were the lowest we’ve had going back as far as my records go – 2005.  Total residential (not residential income, multi-unit) sales were 3,858.  The previous low was in 2008 when 4,334 units sold.

Residential income property sales (2, 3, and 4-units) 474 – the lowest in 10 years except for 2020 which was 444.  On average 638 residential income properties sell.  The same profile shows up in the 5+ unit category.  110 sales in 2023, the lowest except for 2020 when sales were 93.

I also consulted ChatGPT which told me:

“I don't have real-time data or updates for the year 2023. For the most accurate and recent information on the residential real estate market in San Francisco in 2023, I recommend checking reliable sources such as real estate reports, market analyses, or news articles from that time. Market conditions can change rapidly, and up-to-date information will provide a more accurate picture of the trends, pricing, and overall dynamics in the San Francisco real estate market during the specific period you're interested in.”

 New Listings and Price Reductions 

The graph above shows new listings in two week increments going back to 2017.

·       There was a big jump in new condo listings in the last two weeks which we expect each year immediately following the holidays (rain, shine, recession or pandemic).  264 compared to 83 in the prior two week period.  265 for the same period last year and compared to 147 in 2020 (pre pandemic). 

·        Single family homes increase was not quite as dramatic.  127 new listings compared 43 in the prior two week period.  99 a year ago and compared to 74 in 2020 (pre pandemic).

·       

The number of price reductions are about the same as last year – 16 for single family homes and 38 for condos.  Pre pandemic price reductions were 5 and 12.

Inventory 

The number of active listings (especially condos) exceeded monthly sales in every month in 2023 in a much wider gap between listings and sales than pre-pandemic.  

·       Basically, there are plenty of listings but not enough buyers.

Sales Prices

·        These two graphs tell the story.

We survey five different configurations of single family homes and condos.

o   2 bed, 1 bath single family homes sales prices have gone down 12% from their high in 2021 of $1,339 to $1,180 in 2023 a number not seen since 2017. 

o   3/2 single family homes have also gone down 12% in just one year from their high in 2022 of $1,773 down to $1,553 (back to 2018 levels).

o   1/1 condos average selling price in 2023 was $708, down 19% compared to their high of $871 in 2019.  Annual average selling prices have gone down each of the past four years.

o   2/1 condos are down 14% from $1,174 high in 2019 to $1,011 in 2023. 

o   2/2 condos are down 12% from $1,463 in 2019 to $1,293 in 2023.

·  Similar reductions  in average selling prices for multi-unit properties.

o   2-units down 12% from their high in 2021 ($1,962 vs $2,221)

o   3-units down 15% from their high in 2018 ($1,996 vs $2,328)

o   4-units down 13% from their high in 2021 ($1,882 vs $2,159)

TICs 

·        Currently, there are 400+ active listings with price differentials between TICs and similarly configured condos ranging between $48k for 1 bedroom units to $300k+ for 2bd/2ba units.

Those differentials hold for average sales prices with the range being $18k for 1bd, $220k for 2bd/1ba, and $209k for 2bd/2ba.