Month-to-month Fundamentals

Each month we prepare a one-page "fundamentals" report, one each for San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma.  Here are some highlights for Marin and San Francisco:

Marin Fundamentals – March sales were up substantially compared to last month 163 to 100 (single family homes) and 54 to 46 (condos).

Average selling prices were up $2,002 compared to $1,952 for single family homes but, as you can see, that increase was not uniform across all configurations.  Same with condos:  with average selling price $897 vs $859 a month ago.

Inventory has increased 126 compared to 96 at the beginning of February (single family homes) and 63 compared to 57 (condos).

 

San Francisco Fundamentals – the number of sales and average selling prices were up with a one exception.  Sales increased slightly for single family homes 239 vs 236 a month ago.  For condos sales increased substantially 367 vs 236 (55%).  Average sales prices have increased for single family homes ($2467 vs $2335 – 6%) and condos ($1,417 vs $1,377 – 3%).  The average premium (selling price / asking price) for single family homes is            117% for single family homes) and 106% for condos (about the same as last month).

Annual average sales prices are at record highs for the two categories of single family homes we track.  The largest condo configuration we track (2/2) is also back at all time highs with 2/1 condos on $35k off its all time high (2019).  Smaller condos like the 1/1 configuration are recovering more slowly.

Days-on-market have decreased across the board.

Inventory of single family homes is flat (203 vs 204) but condo inventory has jumped 10% to 734 vs 662 a month ago.

 

First Quarter 2022

We just completed our monthly reports and first quarter 2022 reports and have several observations.

[Reports page link]

SAN FRANCISCO

In San Francisco, 2021 recorded the highest number of residential sales since 2004 including single family homes and condos/TICs.  However, for the first quarter this year compared to 2021 first quarter there has been a decline of 17% in closed sales.  Single family homes fell about 12% and condos/TICs fell about 21% in the same first quarter comparison.

[San Francisco quarterly link]

At the same time the average selling prices for single family homes increased by 7% while condos/TICs were down by almost 2%.

Is scarcity driving up prices?  For single family homes this obviously has been true.  As of April 4 there was only 3 weeks of available inventory (number of available properties divided by the average number of monthly sales).  On the other hand, condos/TICs were a surprise as inventory has been hovering between 2 and 3 months.

Both 2 bedroom/1 bath and 3 bedroom/2 bath single family homes continue to establish new historic high average selling prices almost every month.  And 2/2 condos have returned to historic high prices after a downturn during the two years following the start of the pandemic.

And 1/1 and 2/1 condos have also seen recent upticks in recent selling prices but are still 3% off their previous high reached in 2019.

 

MARIN

Total residential sales (including single family homes and condos) for the first quarter of this year compared to 2021 first quarter show a drop of 18% for all sales with single family homes falling 17% and condos falling 19%.  At the same time average selling prices for Marin County residential sales were up 6% with single family homes up 3% and condos up 16%.

[Marin quarterly link]

As of 4/4/22 Marin has almost three weeks of available inventory of single family homes and four weeks of available inventory of condos.