New Listing Market Watch and 3-county report

 Our bi-weekly New Listing report shows a further decline in new listings over the past two weeks compared to the previous two week period.  A decline in new listings is typical (and highly predictable) for this time of year and will continue until after New Years if this this year follows.

New single family home listings were 140 compared to 166 in the prior two week period.  Condos were 199 compared to 259 in the prior period.  Compared to a year ago new listings of single family homes was 140 in the last two weeks compared to 161 a year ago.  For condos the 199 new listings this year compares to 227 a year ago.

On our 3-County report the same drop in active listings can be seen.  In San Francisco the total number of active, in contract, and pending listings is down 90 compared to a week ago (1,801 compared to 1,891).  A similar decline can be seen in the numbers for Marin and Sonoma counties as well.

The full reports can be seen at our web site.

 Masks are still required in San Francisco for all showings -- open house, brokers tour, private showings.

Members:   The City and County of San Francisco is dropping the indoor mask mandate this Friday, October 15, but only for spaces/building where a discrete cohort of fully vaccinated individuals meet regularly, such as an office, religious gathering, or college classroom.   San Francisco law will still require masks for all property showings — open house, private showings, broker tour, inspections, etc.   To qualify for the "mandate removal", the space in question must only have fully vaccinated individuals, and those individuals must see each other on a regular basis, and the space should have relatively few visitors.   The indoor masking mandate is still explicitly in effect for all settings that would be accessed by the wider public, in particular retail stores and shared indoor areas with visitors (lobbies, restrooms, building elevators, etc.).   Under the San Francisco Department of Public Health's guidelines, open houses/real estate showings still qualify for the indoor masking mandate because it is an indoor space that receives many visitors or people from different workspaces/households. However, the indoor masking mandate would be lifted for most brokerage offices.   It should be noted that this rule change is specific to San Francisco, due to SF's high vaccination rate and low infection spread. Other counties are implementing separate/different indoor masking mandates.   Please click the button below for the news release from the Mayor's Office and DPH with more information about the indoor mask requirement.   Contact governmentaffairs@sfrealtors.com with any questions.   CLICK HERE FOR THE MAYOR'S NEWS RELEASE       ‌ ‌ ‌ Representing real estate professionals and promoting responsible business practices and homeownership for more than 100 years. VISIT OUR WEBSITE

A look back over the last 3 quarters

 Our San Francisco residential real estate market for the first three quarters of 2021, in spite of all the COVID issues, is having one of the best years in the last 10 for total sales.  Reviewing the variety of reports we do there are a few items that stand out.

For single family homes 53% (1,130 units) of closed sales in the first three quarters had average prices between $1 and $2 million.  Another 15% (322 homes) closed between $2 and $2.5 million.  Followed closely by 275 homes (13%) between $2.5 and $3 million.

Similarly, in the first three quarters of 2021 52% of condos/TICs sales (1,670 units) were between $1 and $2 million.  The next largest group, 18% (582 units) was between $800k and $999k.  16% (536 units) closed between $500k to $799k.

Inventory continues to be plentiful for condos/TICs.  As of 10/10/2021 there was approx. 3.8 months of available inventory (911 units) with an additional 105 in contract and 320 units pending.

It’s a more mixed message for single family homes where there were 325 active listings with 35 in contract and 285 currently pending.  This represents about 1.6 weeks of inventory.  For the two configurations that we track (2 bedroom, 1 bath and 3 bedrooms, 2 baths) there is 4 weeks and 5 weeks of inventory.

Average selling prices for 2/1 and 3/2 single family homes continue at record highs with 2/1 homes averaging $1.33 million and 3/2 averaging $1.75 million.

Annual average selling prices for the three configurations of condos/tics we track (1/1, 2/1 and 2/2) are $825k, $1.14 million and $1.41 million respectively.  These averages are down 5%, 3% and 4% compared to previous highs reached in 2019.

As might be expected, with almost 3.8 months of inventory, these average selling prices will be constrained through the end of the year. 

By the way, TICs as a percentage of condo/TICs sales is now about 6% -- the lowest percentage since 2002.  In most years TICs make up 8-10% of the combined condo/TIC market.  This reduction in market share seems to be mostly the result of the large influx of condo inventory in the past 2-3 years.

Big Uptick in New Listings

In a “normal” year the 14-day period following Labor Day brings one of the largest increases of new inventory coming onto the San Francisco residential real estate market.  This year was no exception with 281 single family homes and a whopping 536 condos/TICs having been added.

 

Compared to the previous 14-day reporting period there were 147 single family home and 187 condos/TICs added.  That’s a 91% increase in single family homes and 187% increase for condos/TICs. 

For a similar 14-day period in 2020 there were 250 single family homes and 459 condos/TICs that were added.  That is an 8% increase for single family homes and 17% increase for condos/TICs.

The influx of new inventory into our market will provide buyers with more opportunities with about 1.6 months of available inventory for single family homes and 3.6 months of inventory for condos/TICs.  And with such a large number of available listings it has also brought 30 price reductions in single family homes and 78 price reductions in condos/TICs.

If the pace of sales holds we are on track to have the largest number of closed sales since 2013.

The full report can be found on our web site.

Signs of Typical Fall Inventory Uptick

 Heading into the Labor Day weekend we're seeing signs of the usual increase in inventory typical in early September. 

As you can see from this overly busy graphic, the number of active listings increases in September, October and early November every year regardless of recession or pandemic. (These numbers are calculated in the first week of each month.  When Labor day falls in the latter part of the first week of September the increase in listings doesn't show up until the early October figure).

The other indication is the increase in "Coming Soon" listings in the MLS.  In San Francisco the number of "coming soon" listings has increased from 170 to 196 in just seven days.  Most of the "coming soon" listings are condos -- 136 compared to 120 a week ago.  "Coming soon" single family home listings increased to 60 compared to 50 a week ago.

Active Listing Down -- Closed Sales Up

 Active listings as of 8/2/21 in San Francisco dropped approximately 9% compared to the prior week (900 compared to 957).  The percentage drop was the same for both single family homes (257 compared to 287) and condos (643 compared to 670).

The number of closed sales of single family homes in July was approximately the same as July 2020 (235 vs 237).  Condos was a different story with 330 closed sales compared to 274 a year ago -- a 20% increase.

The full report can be found in the "3 County Comparison Report" on our website which includes data for San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma counties:

http://www.boldsf.com/Statistics%20test/Statistics.html

Market Recap -- June sales

 In the first six months of 2021 the San Francisco residential real estate market has performed outstandingly and with some record setting.  There have been 3,677 closed sales, of which 1,399 were single-family homes and 2,278 were condos/TICs.  2013 was the last year where total residential closed sales established the previous high of 2,988 with 1,355 single-family homes and 1,633 condos/TICs (all numbers are for the first six months of the year).

Overall total closed sales for the first two quarters of this year are about 23% higher than in 2013.  Single-family homes increased about 3% and condos/TICs had a whopping increase of 39%.

It should be noted that San Francisco has built quite a few mid- and hi-rise condo buildings since 2013 and, as our monthly statistics derive from our MLS which historically does not include new construction units, these numbers represent largely resales not initial sales of new construction units.

Our single-family home market continues to set historic high average selling price almost monthly for homes priced below $3.5 million.  In June 2/1 and 3/2 homes had average selling prices of $1.511 million and $1.864 million respectively with days-on-market of 17 and 11 days and premiums (selling price divided by asking price) 122% each.

Based on the number of sales, the star performer of the year so far has been the condo segment.  That market has had approximately 3 months of available inventory with potential buyers having plenty of choices.  As would be expected average selling prices saw some declines.  For 1/1 (bedroom/baths), 2/1 and 2/2 configuration condos which we survey monthly June average selling prices were $826k, $1.203 million, and $1.390 million respectively.  When compared to historic high prices (established in 2019) which were $871k, $1.174 million and $1.463 million, there was a 5% decline, a 2% increase and 5% decline respectively for those three configurations.

It appears the market will remain strong for the rest of 2021.  Rising interest rates are likely to affect the sub $1million market rather quickly.  Rising interest rates are less likely to affect single-family home prices since only a small percentage (6%) of single-family homes sell for under $1 million in the San Francisco market. 

We also note that 53% of all single-family home sales closed between $1million and $2.5 million.  For condos/TICs 51% of closed sales were in that same price range.

Low Inventory of single family homes

There’s barely a month of inventory of single family homes in both San Francisco and Marin.  Sonoma is doing better with nearly 2 months of inventory.  San Francisco and Sonoma have 64 and 51 single family homes “coming soon”.  Marin has 11.

Marin Fundamentals (May compared to April)

(click on heading to see the full report)

Number of sales in May was down 8% for single family homes and 12% for condos.

Average selling prices were down 7% and condos were up 3%.

Active listings are up 35% for single family homes and 7% for condos.

 

San Francisco Fundamentals (May compared to  April)

(click on heading to see the full report)

Number of sales of single family homes was down 11% but basically unchanged for condos.

Average selling prices were up 4% for single family homes and up 2% for condos.

Active listings are up 10% for single family homes and 2% for condos.

Market so far in 2021`

Based on the Total Number of Closed Sales through May 31^st, the San Francisco residential real estate market remains on track to be among the best in the last 10 years.

By way of historical perspective, in 2013 closed sales for single family home through May 31^st totaled 1,052 and condos/TICs added an additional 1,350.  This year through the end of May single family home sales totaled 1,090 (a 4% increase over 8 years) and condos/TICs show closed sales of 1,827 (an increase of approx. 35%).

Available inventory of single-family homes continues to be between 2 and 4 weeks for homes under $3 million.  Available inventory for homes priced above $3 million is running between 2 and 4 months.

Inventory of condos priced below $2.5 million is between 2.5 and 3 months. Condos priced above $2.5 million inventory is 5+ months.

Based on average selling prices for single-family homes that we survey monthly (2 bedroom, 1 bath homes and 3 bedroom, 2 bath homes) continue to set historic highs almost every month.  For condos/TICs average selling prices have moderated for the three configurations we survey (1 bed/1 bath, 2 bed/1 bath, and 2 bed/2 bath).  Prior historic highs were all established in 2019. 

1 bed/1 bath prior historic average selling price was $871k.  Through May 31^st it is now $814k (a 7% reduction).

2 bed/1 bath prior historic average selling price was $1,174k.  Through May 31st it is now $1,129k (a 4% reduction).

2 bed/2 bath prior historic average selling price was $1,463kk.  Through May 31st it is now $1,386k (a 5% reduction).

Spring Market (already)

 Our spring residential real estate market has started early and continues strong.  Single family homes added 174 listings in the last 14-day reporting period; 53% higher than the same 2-week period in 2020.  Compared to the previous 14-day period single family homes new listings went from 141 to 174, a 25% increase.

Condos/TICs saw an increase compared to the same 14-day period last year of 73% from 172 to 308.  Our prior 14-day period saw a very slight decrease from 311 to 308, a 3% decrease.

As of 3/10/2021 there was approximately 12 weeks of available inventory for condos/TICs and there are 109 in the “coming soon” category.

The average selling price for the five configurations we survey each month shows that 2 bedroom, 1 bath and 3 bedroom, 2 bath single family homes saw an increase in average selling price of 15% for the 2/1s and 3% for 3/2s compared to the previous month.

1/1 and 2/1 condos/TICs each saw an 8% increase in average sales price while 2/2 condos/TICs saw a 2% decrease compared to the prior month.

We also analyze residential sales by price range.  One revealing item shows up when comparing the number of single-family homes sold in 2019 vs 2020.  In the price range from $1 million to $2.5 million total sales for single family homes made up 68% of all sales in 2019 but jumped to 71% in 2020.

73% of condos/TIC sales were in the range from $800k to $1.5 million in 2020, virtually unchanged from 72% in 2019.  Another 14.5% showed up in the $500k-$799k range in both 2020 and 2019.

The full reports are available at our blog:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics

Or the individual reports:

Bi-weekly Market Watch

San Francisco Sales by Price Range

New Listing Market Watch - Spring has Sprung Early

Although we had some rain during the past two weeks, we are now in the midst of a weeklong sunny and warm spell.  

The San Francisco residential real estate market continues to add substantial numbers of new inventory.  In the last 14 day tracking period single family home inventory was increased by 74% over the same period in 2020.  81 homes vs 161.  Condos/TICs had a 93% increase going from 161 to 311.

In 2021 the first four 14-day reporting periods had single family homes increasing by 23%, 380 to 468 compared to the same four reporting periods in 2020. Condos/TICs had a 16% increase:  673 vs 783.

Additional information, during 2020 the average number of single family homes that sold each month was 205.  The number of condos/TICs was 241.

The number of price reductions of single family homes dropped compared to the prior period:  23 vs 11 which is essentially the same as the same period a year ago.  Price reductions of condos remained high but virtually unchanged compared to the prior week:  57 vs 60.  During the same period last year there were 23 price reductions.

The full report can be seen at our website:

www.boldsf.com/Statistics

People leaving San Francisco in droves, but not too far

It's true that more people left San Francisco than arrived during the first eight months of the pandemic according to change-of-address data from the US Postal Service.  About 27,000 households arrived and 80,000 left (not quite double compared to 2019).

According to the USPS data, 50% of those departing San Francisco didn't leave the Bay area.  The top destinations were the counties immediately surrounding the Bay -- Alameda, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, Santa Clara and Sonoma.  

San Francisco Chronicle

KTVU

To me the most interesting part of these statistics is that virtually the same number of households moved into San Francisco in 2020 as the previous year.

Fundamentals -- January sales up in San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma year-over-year

Three of the reports we put together monthly are a series of "fundamentals" for San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma counties.  The reports show the number of sales for the month, average selling prices, days-on-market, premium, and price per square foot.

Here's an example from the San Francisco report.

For San Francisco we report on two configurations of single family homes (2 bedrooms/1 bath, and 3 bedrooms/2 baths) as well as all single family home sales.  For condos (including TICs and co-operatives) we report on three configurations as well as all condo sales.

The color coding indicates whether the numbers are higher (green) or lower (red) compared to the previous month.  It's not a surprise that the number of sales is down in January compared to December.

What is surprising is comparing this January's single family home sales with January 2020 we see a significantly higher number of sales this year vs last year.  In San Francisco its higher by 70% (151 vs 89).  In Marin sales were up 76% (130 vs 74) and in Sonoma sales were up 30% (285 vs 219).

Condo sales in all three counties were also up compared to a year ago.  In San Francisco sales were up 85% (257 vs 139), in Marin sales were up 43% (46 vs 30) and in Sonoma they were up 48% (43 vs 29).

Our fundamentals reports also show inventory (currently active on the market).  Here's an example from the San Francisco report:

In San Francisco inventory of single family homes was up 82% (255 vs 140) compared to early February 2020 and condos were up 99% (760 vs 381).  

In Marin inventory of single family homes was down 20% (152 vs 189) but condos were up 39% (75 vs 54).  

In Sonoma inventory of single family homes for sale was down 25% (486 vs 643) and condos were down 30% (53 vs 75).

These and other reports can be found at our web site: www.boldsf.com/Statistics

New Listing Market Watch - early February

Has the spring market begun?  In the last two weeks there were 448 new residential listings in San Francisco compared to just 264 for the same period in 2020.  Just over 300 were condos/TICs -- double the number in 202.  There were 147 new listings of single family homes compared to 108 a year ago -- a 36% increase.

Compared to the prior 2-week period ending 1/25/2021 new listings of single family homes jumped from 98 to 147.  Condos fell slightly from 316 to 301 new listings.

There were 23 price reductions of single family homes and 57 price reductions of condos.  Both of those numbers are more than double compared to the same period last year (10 and 24 respectively). We haven't seen that many price reductions since just before the Thanksgiving holiday.

2020 San Francisco Residential Real Estate Market in Review

If you just go by the “numbers” without taking into account the other “issues” that captured all the headlines last year it was a rather normal year for San Francisco residential real estate

Total residential sales for 2020 was 4,967 homes; for 2019 it was 5,023, a mere difference of 56 homes or a decline of .01%.

For the five categories of residential properties we survey each month the average selling prices show some surprising results:

Single family homes remain in high demand.  In December 2/1 and 3/2 homes had DOM (Days on Market) of 17 and 24 respectively and had premiums (selling price ÷ list price) of 111% and 104%.

In the condo/TIC market1/1, 2/1 and 2/2 units had DOMs of 52, 52 and 53 respectively and premiums of 98%, 101% and 98%.

But when you look at our other data, in this case Sales by Price Range, another story emerges.  Single family homes selling for over $3.5 million tend to sit on the market at least twice as long as lower priced homes.  Average days on market for home over $3.5 million is 50 compared to 27 for home priced lower.  In addition, a high percentage of homes listed for over $3.5 million are withdrawn or cancelled – a rate almost three times that of homes priced below $3.5 million.

And the law of supply and demand does still apply.  While current inventory for condos remains unusually high, still about 2.5 months of available units.

Our Condo vs TIC Quarterly Study shows a slight pickup in the number of TICs sold as a percentage of total sold condos+TICs.

As we look at (as of 1/11/2021) our marketplace we have one month supply of available single family homes and over 2.5 months of supply of condos/TICs available.  And waiting for the spring market with 192 units in the “coming soon” status (70 single family homes and 122 condos).  Perhaps this will be a more normal year in real estate.

And a quick review of the last 7 days hot sheet as of this morning shows there were 73 single family homes and 152 condos/TICs added.  Compare that to the prior 14 day period in 2020 when there were 92 single family homes and 189 condos added.  Spring market appears to have arrived with some fast-building inventory.

To see our complete year-end analyses please visit:  www.boldsf.com/Statistics